A map of the Bakken and Three Forks Formations within the Williston Basin of North Dakota, Montana, and South Dakota

On April 30, 2013, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) released an updated oil and gas resource assessment for the Bakken Formation and a new assessment for the Three Forks Formation in North Dakota, South Dakota and Montana.  The assessments found that the formations contain an estimated mean of 7.4 billion barrels (BBO) of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil.  The updated assessment for the Bakken and Three Forks represents a twofold increase over what has previously been thought.

The USGS assessment found that the Bakken Formation has an estimated mean oil resource of 3.65 BBO and the Three Forks Formation has an estimated mean resource of 3.73 BBO, for a total of 7.38 BBO, with a range of 4.42 (95 percent chance) to 11.43 BBO (5 percent chance). This assessment of both formations represents a significant increase over the estimated mean resource of 3.65 billion barrels of undiscovered oil in the Bakken Formation that was estimated in the 2008 assessment.

“These world-class formations contain even more energy resource potential than previously understood, which is important information as we continue to reduce our nation’s dependence on foreign sources of oil,” said Secretary of the Interior Sally Jewell.  “We must develop our domestic energy resources armed with the best available science, and this unbiased, objective information will help private, nonprofit and government decision makers at all levels make informed decisions about the responsible development of these resources.”

A key component of President Obama’s all-of-the-above energy strategy is the availability of sound science to guide informed decision-making regarding the safe and responsible development of America’s domestic energy resources.

“The USGS undertook this assessment of the Bakken and Three Forks Formations as part of a nationwide project assessing U.S. petroleum basins using standardized methodology and protocol,” said Acting Director of the USGS Suzette Kimball.  “Through this improved understanding of our energy resources, government, industry, and citizens are better able to understand our domestic energy mix and make wiser decisions for the future.”

Since the 2008 USGS assessment, more than 4,000 wells have been drilled in the Williston Basin, providing updated subsurface geologic data.  Previously, very little data existed on the Three Forks Formation and it was generally thought to be unproductive.  However, new drilling resulted in a new understanding of the reservoir and its resource potential.

In addition to oil, these two formations are estimated to contain a mean of 6.7 trillion cubic feet of undiscovered, technically recoverable natural gas and 0.53 billion barrels of undiscovered, technically recoverable natural gas liquids.  Gas estimates range from 3.43 (95 percent chance) to 11.25 (5 percent chance) trillion cubic feet of gas and 0.23 (95 percent chance) to 0.95 (5 percent chance) billion barrels of natural gas liquids.  This estimate represents a nearly threefold increase in mean natural gas and a nearly threefold increase in mean natural gas liquids resources from the 2008 assessment, due primarily to the inclusion of the Three Forks Formation.

The primary source of oil for the Bakken and Three Forks Formations are the Upper and Lower Bakken Shale Members of the Bakken Formation. USGS assessed the Bakken and Three Forks Formations for both continuous and conventional resources.  Unlike conventional oil accumulations, continuous oil remains in or near the original source rock, and instead of occurring in discrete accumulations is dispersed heterogeneously over large geographic areas.

The geological foundation that underpins the assessment was facilitated by data provided by the North Dakota Geological Survey, North Dakota Industrial Commission, Montana Board of Oil and Gas, and multiple industry groups working in this region.  This new information and data allowed USGS to develop a more robust geologic model and understanding of the petroleum system of the Bakken and Three Forks Formations.

Technically recoverable oil resources are those producible using currently available technology and industry practices. USGS is the only provider of publicly available estimates of undiscovered technically recoverable oil and gas resources.

More Resources:

• 2013 Bakken and Three Forks Formations Assessment Fact Sheet
• Podcast Interview on the Assessment
• Bakken FAQs
• Bakken Media Gallery
• Energy Glossary

To learn more about USGS energy assessments and other energy research, please visit the USGS Energy Resources Program website, sign up for the Newsletter, and follow USGS on Twitter.  For more information on the Interior Department, see www.doi.gov.

Fundamental knowledge of the land and its resources is a basic need for effective government and a productive economy in any nation.  The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), celebrating its 134th birthday on March 3rd, serves our Nation by providing reliable scientific information that can be used in many different ways: to describe and understand the Earth; to minimize loss of life and property from natural disasters; to manage water, ecosystem, energy, and mineral resources; and to enhance and protect our quality of life.

A legacy of science for the Nation

Using science to understand our natural heritage is at the core of the USGS. It can even be traced in our pre-history.

More than 200 years ago, the first government survey of the natural resources of the American West, Lewis and Clark’s Corps of Discovery (1804-06), was commissioned by President Thomas Jefferson and funded by Congress. In carrying out Jefferson’s detailed instructions in regard to cartography and scientific goals, the explorers mapped every twist and turn of the Missouri and the Columbia rivers, gathering information about the soils, plants, animals, and native inhabitants of the lands through which they passed.

The National Map is a collaborative effort among the USGS and other Federal, State, and local partners to improve and deliver topographic information for the Nation.

In 1867, shortly after the Civil War ended, Congress authorized the first of a series of major western explorations that were led by Clarence King (USGS first director), F. V. Hayden, George Wheeler, and John Wesley Powell (USGS second director). In 1879, following the National Academy of Sciences recommendation that these surveys be consolidated, the 45^th Congress established the U. S. Geological Survey on March 3 with the mandate to conduct “the classification of the Public Lands, and examination of the geological structure, mineral resources, and products of the national domain.”

Over a period of 134 years, the USGS has evolved from a small group of scientists and surveyors who provided guidance on how to describe and manage the public lands of the West to a leading Federal science agency that conducts research and assessment activities on complex natural resource and science issues at scales ranging from local to global.

The Survey today

The institutional strength of the modern USGS is the broad array of science expertise we have. The USGS operates programs that include natural hazards research, such as our earthquake, volcano, and landslide programs; a network of 8,000 streamgages that monitor water availability and help in forecasting floods; and other programs that investigate invasive species, wildlife disease, and climate change.

A USGS scientist monitors sediment quality in the Salton Sea of California. USGS studies toxic contaminants in the environment to better understand their effects on fish, wildlife, and human health.

We have nearly 9,000 science and science-support staff at work at more than 400 USGS science centers across the Nation. The USGS leverages its resources and expertise in partnership with more than 2,000 agencies of State, local and tribal government, the academic community, other Federal partners, non-governmental organizations, and the private sector.

The Survey does not manage any land or resources or have regulatory responsibilities. Our priority is our “boots on the ground” scientists who work with sophisticated monitoring networks to study our world and its natural processes. Our entire focus is on providing objective, ready-to-work science that decision-makers need to face difficult, multi-faceted issues.

The Survey conducts vital resource assessments for energy and mineral potential. We also conduct research on the environmental and human health impacts of the production and use of various energy resources. The USGS is the sole Federal source of scientific information and research on nonfuel mineral potential, production, and consumption, as well as on the environmental effects of the extraction and use of mineral resources. To support the development of economic and national security policies in a global context, the USGS collects and analyzes data on essential mineral commodities from around the world.

USGS maintains the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) whose mission is to rapidly determine the location and size of all destructive earthquakes worldwide and to immediately disseminate this information to concerned national and international agencies, scientists, and the general public.

We’re the largest civilian mapping agency. Furthermore, we continuously observe the Earth through the Landsat satellite program in partnership with NASA. The latest satellite, Landsat 8, was recently launched on February 11 and is expected to be operating by mid-May as an advanced complement to the existing Landsat 7.

Today, with the world population at more than 7 billion and projected to grow to 9 billion by 2040; with competing priorities to balance – for the economy, for the environment, for public health and safety; with the serious, perhaps irreversible consequences of climate change and sea-level rise to consider, our leaders need scientific information about the land and its resources that they can trust with the greatest confidence to guide their decisions.

USGS and NASA co-operate Landsat 8, the latest satellite in the longest-operating continuous Earth-observing mission. Image courtesy of NASA.

With historical data comes increased perspective

Historical datasets that have been meticulously collected and archived by the Survey provide a critical context for the current state of natural systems as well as for discerning human influences on the environment.  Some of these long-term USGS datasets include borehole temperature records in Alaskan permafrost; historical water temperature data; streamgage readings for over a century in several locations; four decades of global change observations from Landsat satellites; catalogs of historical earthquakes and historical data from the Global Seismic Network; and paleoclimate records gleaned from ice cores and seafloor samples.

With historical records like these, in combination with cutting-edge research in paleogeology and chemical analysis, USGS scientists can look far back in time — across decades and centuries, in some instances; in other cases, even millions of years — to understand the conditions of global climate, temperature, and precipitation of a certain age. This wealth and breadth of data provides an invaluable framework for understanding climate and environmental changes that are taking place today.

Data in demand

Public demand for USGS scientific findings and data is strong and growing stronger. The International Energy Agency has said of us, “The most widely respected source of information on global conventional oil and gas resources is the U.S. Geological Survey.” A May 2012 article in a respected international journal found that the U.S. Geological Survey is the most cited institution in the world for environmental science.

Other broad sectors of the public and the emergency response community have come to rely on USGS for timely, robust, reliable hazard information. For example, USGS supplies rapid assessments of earthquake fatalities and economic losses; real-time flood inundation mapping to support emergency response; predictions of coastal impacts from hurricanes 48 hours prior to hurricane landfall; debris-flow susceptibility maps; rapid notification of the onset of a volcanic eruption at high-threat volcanoes; and real-time wildfire condition information to support fire fighters.

A drill rig in the Fayetteville Shale gas play of Arkansas. USGS assesses energy and mineral resources critical to the Nation’s security and economy.

A birthday in unusual circumstances

Whether it’s our birthday or just a regular day in early March, the USGS, like many other Federal agencies, faces the near-term prospect of across-the-board sequestration cuts to its staff and monitoring capabilities. Budget sequestration will impact our ability, immediately and for months ahead, to provide the critical science needed to minimize loss of life and property from natural disasters. The entire USGS workforce in every state across the country will be faced with the prospect of furloughs. This substantial loss of employee productivity, coupled with the uncertainty of funding key operating contracts and research grants, will inevitably degrade our monitoring and forecasting capabilities nationwide.

The National Academy of Sciences, the same prestigious body that recommended the establishment of the Survey in 1879, recently released (Feb. 2012) a rigorous review of the importance of international programs at USGS. The Academy concluded, “A global, integrated understanding of the Earth sciences is of fundamental importance to enhance U.S. public health and security, safeguard our natural heritage, and support economic development. …. As the Nation’s leading, integrated Earth science agency, the [USGS] has a significant role to play in contributing information and knowledge to address Earth science issues arising in and beyond U.S. national boundaries.”

The leadership, scientists, and employees of USGS heartily concur. Across the United States, we want the best science about the Earth and its natural resources to be readily available so that it can be used effectively in making vital decisions that will affect our fellow citizens, our communities, and the environment.

The USGS is hosting its first challenge via the platform Challenge.gov. Submissions will be judged on their relevance to today’s scientific challenges, innovative use of the datasets, and overall ease of use of the application. Prizes will be awarded to the best overall app, the best student app, and the people’s choice

“Challenge Yourself to App-lify USGS Data”

Contests have a way of motivating people. It must have something to do with the spirit of healthy competition that engages people in ways that are not possible otherwise. From the Orteig prize in 1919 that led to the first transatlantic flight to the Ansari X Prize paving the way for personal space flight, prizes have a long history of success throughout the world.

But successful contests are not limited to aviation and are no longer relegated to the private sector. The USGS is throwing its hat into the challenge ring and has embarked on its first challenge – App-lifying USGS Earth Science Data. The contest utilizes the platform Challenge.gov which serves as the place where Government agencies post challenges and the public posts submissions.

The Challenge
After examining the successes by other agencies in developing and executing challenges, USGS scientists invite the public to take some of its datasets and shake them up, visualize them, and mash them up with other datasets in previously unexpected ways. The challenge is focused on a specific set of ecological and/or biological datasets that serve as the basis for the challenge.

The USGS Core Science Analytics and Synthesis (CSAS) program is seeking help from many of the Nation’s premier application developers and data visualization specialists in developing new visualizations and applications for CSAS datasets. CSAS focuses on innovative ways to manage and deliver scientific data and information. The program implements and promotes standards and best practices to enable efficient, data-driven science for decision-making that supports a rapid response to emerging natural resource issues. One way this is accomplished is by developing national data products that increase our understanding of the Earth’s natural systems.

Gap analysis for the lark bunting. A graphical representation of an analysis conducted by combining the three data layers produced by the Gap Analysis Program (http://gapanalysis.usgs.gov/). By intersecting the predicted distribution of this species with the Protected Areas Database, we determine that 2.6% of the lark bunting’s habitat falls in the category of “highly protected”.

Ready to Win?

We want you to compete in our challenge! The challenge is open to everyone. The USGS recognizes that solutions can come from unexpected places. That’s why this challenge is open to everyone including students 13 years old and up. Developers, information scientists, graphic designers, Web gurus, citizen scientists—anyone and everyone is encouraged to submit their app to the challenge.

“The USGS has produced several key biogeography datasets that are integral to understanding the natural world. We need to maximize their impact by combining them with other national datasets. By accessing and visualizing these datasets in new ways, the public can help USGS scientists tackle many of our Nation’s scientific challenges,” said Kevin Gallagher, USGS Associate Director of Core Science Systems.

The datasets for the contest consist of a range of earth science data types, including:

• authoritative taxonomic nomenclature for plants and animals of North America and the world;
• thousands of metadata records related to research studies, ecosystems, and species;
• several million biological occurrence records (terrestrial and marine); and
• vegetation and land cover data for the United States, including detailed vegetation maps for the National Parks.

Submissions will be judged on their relevance to today’s scientific challenges, innovative use of the datasets, and overall ease of use of the application. Prizes will be awarded to the best overall app, the best student app, and the people’s choice.
Submissions will be accepted from January 9, 2013, to April 1, 2013. Winners will be announced on April 26, 2013, and will be honored at the USGS The National Map Users Conference/Community for Data Integration Workshop (May 21-24, 2013, in Denver, Colo.), where their applications will be demonstrated to USGS scientists and program managers. The National Map is teaming up with the Community for Data Integration to host a conference focusing on collaboration, integration, and innovation. Themes for the conference span a wide range of topics including scientific applications of The National Map, the Open Science movement, and public participation in scientific research.

The USGS is looking for your bright ideas and everyone is encouraged to enter including students age 13 and up.

America Competes

Under the America COMPETES Reauthorization Act signed in 2011, government agencies have jumped into the contest arena. The vehicle to do this became Challenge.gov, the contest platform administered by the General Services Administration. Challenge.gov is aimed at facilitating creative applications for government agencies to address a range of societal issues more effectively.

An early adopter of Challenge.gov has been The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which has utilized the platform for many successful challenges including Green Chemistry Challenge, Game Day Challenge, and Apps for the Environment.

Apps for the Environment challenged participants to tap into EPA data and devise an app that was useful, innovative, and easy to use. The winner of Best Overall App was Lightbulb Finder, an app that used EPA data to help people find the best energy efficient light bulbs for their homes. By helping people switch incandescent light bulbs for more energy efficient ones, Lightbulb Finder is able to save electricity—reducing CO2 emissions and saving people money.

A Fresh Perspective: Crowdsourcing New Ideas

Harnessing the power of crowdsourcing, challenges have led to innovative solutions to complex problems. The power comes from the ability to tap into the collective knowledge of the crowd. In this way, solutions can come from unexpected places. For instance, the winning application, Flu-Ville!, in the Center for Disease Control’s Flu App Challenge came from a graphic artist interested in educational games.

Another contest looked at mapping dark matter, which has been a problem that has plagued physicists for decades. Solutions came from many unexpected places including glaciology, neuroscience, and even a signature verification expert. The prize was ultimately awarded to a cosmology professor and grad student team from the University of California, Irvine, but examples like these demonstrate the power of prizes to find intersections where seemingly unrelated disciplines meet.

Looking back on all of the successful challenges throughout the years, the USGS is excited to see the upcoming results of its first challenge. We invite you to submit your app to our challenge. Maybe the next great app will be yours!

Former USGS Chief Hydrologist Luna B. Leopold left a lasting legacy on the field of hydrology.

In honor of Earth Science Week, October 14-20, 2012, the USGS is taking a look back into history at the scientists who laid the foundation for the innovative earth science research taking place today. Without the work conducted by these pioneers, much of the science used for decision making worldwide would not be possible.

 “Water is the most critical resource issue of our lifetime and our children’s lifetime. The health of our waters is the principal measure of how we live on the land.”

–Luna B. Leopold, Former USGS Chief Hydrologist

Luna B. Leopold, son of famed conservationist Aldo Leopold, arrived at the USGS in 1950. For the next two decades, Leopold revolutionized hydrologic sciences within and outside the USGS. He is best known for his work in the field of geomorphology, the study of land features and the processes that create and change them. His work is often cited today by leading scientists in water research, both at the USGS and around the world.

Leopold had a lasting impact on the field of water science. He knew the broader importance of our water resources and that humans can have great impact on whether water is available, now and in the future. Our society depends on safe and reliable water supplies, as do the Earth’s diverse and valuable ecosystems. Today, our nation is faced with the challenge of balancing a finite freshwater supply between competing needs, such as agriculture, drinking water, energy production, and ecosystems.

Leopold recognized the fundamental value of science in making smart decisions about water resources and laid the groundwork for modern water science. During his tenure he transformed USGS water research into a professionally-recognized provider of water quality and availability information.

In the midst of a research expedition in Cataract Canyon, Utah, former USGS Chief Hydrologist Luna Leopold and eminent physicist Ralph Bagnold take a moment to rest.

For six years, he served as a hydraulic engineer before becoming the first Chief Hydrologist in the history of the USGS, a position he held until 1966 when he stepped down to pursue his research. While at the USGS, he led the effort to restructure the water science programs to focus on viewing water as a single resource. For example, USGS continues to research the interactions between surface water and groundwater, because use of either of these resources affects the quantity and quality of the other.

Leopold also directed the agency to assist in developing hydrology education programs at universities across the country and promoted a future in which all hydrologic research organizations—both public and private—would come together to share information and advance their ideas.

“In effect, Luna turned the hydrologic division of the USGS into a premier research organization, contributing to the prominence the field now has,” said Bill Dietrich, a professor of earth and planetary science at the University of California, Berkeley, and a former colleague of Leopold’s.

Randall J. Hunt, USGS Research Hydrologist for Geology, and Curt Meine, the biographer of Aldo Leopold, have written an account of Luna Leopold’s contributions to the world of water science that will appear in the November/December issue of Ground Water and is currently online. In the article, “Luna B. Leopold – Pioneer Setting the Stage for Modern Hydrology,” they describe Leopold as a brilliant and humble researcher intrigued by the impact that human activities have on natural bodies of water.

“From the earliest steps in his career,” wrote Hunt and Meine, “Luna Leopold demonstrated a fascination with hydrology, an understanding of basic hydrological connectivity, and an appreciation of the role of science in informing resource management and stewardship.”

Not only did Leopold lead the transition to a more effective organization structure for the study of hydrology; he also changed the underlying philosophy behind the research.

“In 1957, newly minted USGS Chief Hydraulic Engineer Leopold brought with him a conviction that water on and beneath the Earth’s surface and the quality of both were interdependent parts of one water-resources system,” wrote Hunt and Meine. “Leopold believed, moreover, that the USGS and the field of hydrology had to change to reflect this reality. He also recognized that hydrologic research was critical in meeting the needs of water-resource planning…This approach became manifest within the USGS.”

Former USGS Chief Hydrologist Luna Leopold writes down his reflections during a research expedition in Idaho.

Leopold’s contributions to the field of water science have been recognized by institutions throughout the United States. In 1967, just a year after completing his tenure as Chief Hydrologist, Leopold became the first hydrologist to be inducted into the National Academy of Sciences. In 1968 he won the Cullum Geographical Medal from the American Geographical Society, and in 1991 was awarded the National Medal of Science by President George H. Bush in a Rose Garden ceremony at the White House. During his career, he was elected as a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the American Philosophical Society, the American Society of Civil Engineers, and the American Geophysical Union.

Today, USGS scientists continue to monitor, quantify, and study our water resources across the planet, and understand the ways in which human actions affect those waters. For more information on water science currently being conducted by the USGS, click here.

Young boys working in a newly cropped field in Africa.

In parts of eastern Africa, drought is of increasing concern, as poor families suffer from food shortages and the inability to grow crops and sustain livestock. Stunted growth in children due to malnutrition has also been linked to climate trends in Africa.

Drought conditions are expected to continue as global temperatures continue to rise and rainfall declines across parts of eastern Africa.

This poses increased risk to millions of people in Africa who currently face potential food shortages.

What’s being done to help?

The USGS is involved in a variety of research efforts to help understand current and future conditions in Africa, helping to inform plans to provide aid.

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network, or FEWS NET, is one endeavor that has already made great strides in helping to address this issue. FEWS NET helps target more than $1.5 billion of assistance to more than 40 countries each year.

FEWS NET examines the populations of the developing world with the most food insecurity, identifying critical situations in which food aid will be needed. These are populations whose livelihoods are typically tied to subsistence rain-fed agriculture and pastoralism.

FEWS NET is sponsored by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Office of Food for Peace and the USGS is actively involved.

FEWS NET at the United Nations Climate Convention

A USGS presentation on FEWS NET will be a featured side event on November 30, 2011, at the United Nations 17^th annual Conference of the Parties (COP-17) in Durban, South Africa. The convention’s purpose is to develop international agreements and a declaration of policies and practices for combating climate change and its impacts around the world.

A herder moves cattle through a barren landscape in eastern Africa.

Climate forecasts and remote sensing help spot future trouble

FEWS NET has developed its own climate services to provide decision makers with early identification of agricultural drought that might trigger food insecurity. Scientists use climate forecasts to develop forward-looking food security assessments that are based on expected agricultural outcomes for the season ahead.

Since networks of ground observation stations are often sparse or reported late in FEWS NET countries, satellite remote sensing of vegetation and rainfall fills in the gaps. Remote sensing from space allows for rapid, accurate assessments of a broad range of environmental and agricultural conditions. USGS scientists provide the technologies and expertise to support remote sensing for FEWS NET activities.

Early warning of famine in Somalia helps pre-position food supplies

On July 20, 2011, the United Nations declared parts of Somalia as a region of famine. The decision was supported by FEWS NET and USGS observational evidence of conditions in the area.

The declaration was the culmination of early warning communications encouraging — months before the crisis — that government and other agencies pre-position food and supplies in the region.

“None of the many uses of Earth-observing satellites is more vital — or has as much potential for prompting timely humanitarian intervention — as famine early warning,” said USGS Director Marcia McNutt. “Remote sensing from space allows USGS scientists to provide rapid, accurate assessments of a broad range of environmental and agricultural conditions.”

The eastern Horn of Africa, the continental region that encompasses Somalia, has experienced two consecutive seasons of very poor rainfall resulting in the worst drought in 60 years. Crops have failed, livestock deaths are widespread, and food prices are very high. While the rains this winter have been good, food prices remain high, and the food security situation remains insecure.

Stunted growth linked to malnutrition and climate change

Other USGS research is helping to identify the impacts of a changing climate on Africa’s people. Scientists recently discovered that malnutrition and dry hot living conditions are linked to stunted growth in Mali, West Africa.

USGS research found that Mali was becoming substantially warmer and a little bit drier. Scientists also knew that farmers and those who make a living raising sheep, cattle, goats, or camels were poor, and that stunted growth was occurring throughout Mali.

Scientists wondered if there could be a link between human health and increasingly warm and dry conditions.

To investigate, the USGS worked with the University of California, Santa Barbara, to study climate observations and demographic and health data. The Demographic and Health Survey program routinely compiles data from surveys in 90 countries to study trends in health and population. Scientists analyzed statistics on specific villages in Mali and found that there was a link between a warmer climate and increased stunting.

Population growth combined with the impacts of warming will further increase these health impacts.

Stunting was also linked to other factors, such as mother’s education and the water supply system. Women’s education, improved water supplies, and agricultural development could help to address malnutrition and stunting in Mali.

An article on this research was published in in the journal, Applied Geography, by San Diego State University, the University of California, Santa Barbara, and the USGS.

A Food Security Assessment in Somalia found severe impacts on livestock due to drought conditions.

Other studies underway

Other new research includes the discovery that the warming of the Indian and western Pacific oceans (which is linked to global warming) affects rainfall over large areas of the Horn of Africa. As the globe has warmed over the last century, the Indian Ocean and western Pacific have warmed especially fast.

The resulting warmer air and increased humidity over the Indian and western Pacific oceans produce more frequent rainfall in that region. The air loses its moisture during rainfall, and then flows westward and descends over Africa, leading to decreased rain in parts of eastern Africa. Trends toward increased frequency of drought that we are seeing now are likely to continue into the future as warming continues.

A few recent articles on this research were published in the journal, Climate Dynamics, by scientists with the USGS, the University of California, Santa Barbara, and Los Alamos National Laboratory. The most recent article concludes that global warming will lead to a decrease in rainfall during the summer monsoon season, from June to September, across southern Sudan, southern Ethiopia, and northern Uganda.  Another article concluded that eastern Africa, particularly Kenya and southern Ethiopia, will also have a significant decrease in rainfall during the long-rains season from March to June.

USGS scientists are working hard to translate these technical studies into reports for decision makers. To date, they have completed summary fact sheets focused on Sudan and Kenya.

Scientists also found that some regions, like northern Ethiopia, are not getting drier due to current warming temperatures. Rainfall varies dramatically across all of eastern Africa, with high mountainous areas typically receiving many times the rainfall received in low-lying areas. Therefore, agricultural growth in these climatically safe regions could help offset rainfall declines in other locations.

Start with science

Scientists are looking at clues and changes in nature to understand the impacts of global warming. In Africa, impacts are seen across the landscape — on farms and even in humans.

By starting with science, well-informed decisions can be made to help Africa as it faces drought, famine, and health concerns.

FEWS NET partners include the USAID, Chemonics International, the USGS, NASA, NOAA, and the USDA. The Geography Department at the University of California, Santa Barbara, is a partner to the USGS in this effort.

Want more information?

Listen to a podcast interview with USGS scientists as they discuss ongoing efforts to understand conditions in Africa.

The Water cycle

Looking for information on natural resources, natural hazards, geospatial data, and more? The USGS Education site provides great resources, including lessons, data, maps, and more, to support teaching, learning, K-12 education, and university-level inquiry and research.

For more information