Climate Research and Development ProgramClimate R&D Program
Exploring Future Flora, Environments, and Climates Through Simulations (EFFECTS)
The EFFECTS Project investigates species and ecosystem responses to climate change over paleo to future time scales (from ~21,000 years ago through climate projections for the next century). We use physically-based models to simulate ecosystem dynamics and changes in the distributions and characteristics of species, ecosystems, and related environmental processes. This research is designed to improve our understanding of the effects of climate change across taxonomic (biome to species) and spatial (global to landscape) scales. An important component of this work is to determine how species and ecosystems have responded to historical and paleoclimate changes and to use these past responses to help us understand how species and ecosystems may respond to potential future climate change.
Why is this research important?
The responses of species and ecosystems to potential future climate changes may have a wide range of effects, including altering patterns of biodiversity, the frequency and magnitude of wildfires, and the provision of important ecosystem services. We are improving model simulations to provide better estimates of potential climate change impacts and this work is also improving our understanding of past environmental change. Results from this work are being used by other researchers for climate-related research and are providing conservation and natural resource managers with information needed for developing management responses to climate change.
Project Lead: Sarah L. Shafer, Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center
Project Team: Richard Pelltier (USGS), Andrea Allan (Oregon State Univ.)
Bowen, Z.H., (including Shafer, S.L.), 2014, U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative - 2012 annual report: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2014-1093, 71 p.
Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/ofr20141093
Bowen, Z.H., Aldridge, C.L., Anderson, P.J., Assal, T.J., Biewick, L.R.H., Blecker, S.W., Boughton, G.K., Carr, N.B., Chalfoun, A.D., Chong, G.W., Clark, M.L., Diffendorfer, J.E., Fedy, B.C., Foster, K., Garman, S.L., Germaine, S., Hethcoat, M.G., Holloway, J., Homer, C., Kauffman, M.J., Keinath, D., Latysh, N., Manier, D., McDougal, R.R., Melcher, C.P., Miller, K.A., Montag, J., Olexa, E.M., Potter, C.J., Schell, S., Shafer, S.L., Smith, D.B., Stillings, L.L., Sweat, M.J., Tuttle, M., and Wilson, A.B., 2013, U.S. Geological Survey Science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative - 2011 Annual Report: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2013-1033, 145 p.
Dalton, M.M., Bethel, J., Capalbo, S.M., Cuhaciyan, J.E., Eigenbrode, S.D., Glick, P., Houston, L.L., Littell, J.S., Lynn, K., Mote, P.W., Raymondi, R.R., Reeder, W.S., Shafer, S.L., and Snover, A.K., 2013, Executive summary, in Dalton, M.M., Mote, P.W., and Snover, A.K., eds., Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities: Washington, DC, Island Press, p. xix-xl.
Raymondi, R.R., Cuhaciyan, J.E., Glick, P., Capalbo, S.M., Houston, L.L., Shafer, S.L., and Grah, O., 2013, Water resources: implications of changes in temperature and precipitation, Chap. 3 in Dalton, M.M., Mote, P.W., and Snover, A.K., eds., Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities: Washington, DC, Island Press, p. 41-66.
Reeder, W.S., Ruggiero, P., Shafer, S.L., Snover, A.K., Houston, L.L., Glick, P., Newton, J.A., and Capalbo, S.M., 2013, Coasts: complex changes affecting the Northwest's diverse shorelines, Chap. 4 in Dalton, M.M., Mote, P.W., and Snover, A.K., eds., Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities: Washington, DC, Island Press, p. 67-109.
Cross, M.S., Zavaleta, E.S., Bachelet, D., Brooks, M.L., Enquist, C.A.F., Fleishman, E., Graumlich, L.J., Groves, C.R., Hannah, L., Hansen, L., Hayward, G., Koopman, M., Lawler, J.J., Malcolm, J., Nordgren, J., Petersen, B., Rowland, E.L., Scott, D., Shafer, S.L., Shaw, M.R., and Tabor, G.M., 2012, The Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) framework: A tool for incorporating climate change into natural resource management: Environmental Management, v. 50, no. 3, p. 341-351.
Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00267-012-9893-7
Groves, C.R., Game, E.T., Anderson, M.G., Cross, M., Enquist, C., Ferdana, Z., Girvetz, E., Gondor, A., Hall, K.R., Higgins, J., Marshall, R., Popper, K., Schill, S., Shafer, S.L., 2012, Incorporating climate change into systematic conservation planning: Biodiversity and Conservation, v. 21, no. 7, p. 1651-1671.
Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10531-012-0269-3
Shafer, S.L., Atkins, J., Bancroft, B.A., Bartlein, P.J., Lawler, J.J., Smith, B., and Wilsey, C.B., 2012, Projected future climate and vegetation changes and potential biotic effects for Fort Benning, Georgia; Fort Hood, Texas; and Fort Irwin, California: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2011-5099, 46 p.
Thompson, R.S., Anderson, K.H., Pelltier, R.T., Strickland, L.E., Bartlein, P.J., and Shafer, S.L., 2012, Quantitative estimation of climatic parameters from vegetation data in North America by the Mutual Climatic Range technique: Quaternary Science Reviews, v. 51, p. 18-39.
Lawler, J.J., Nelson, E., Conte, M., Shafer, S.L., Ennaanay, D., and Mendoza, G., 2011, Modeling the impacts of climate change on ecosystem services, in Kareiva, P., Tallis, H., Ricketts, T.H., Daily, G.C., and Polasky, S., eds., Natural Capital: Theory and Practice of Mapping Ecosystem Services: Oxford, Oxford Univ. Press, p. 323-338.