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Climate and Land Use Change Research and Development Program

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FTLOADDS surface-water ground-water numerical model

Dynamics of Land Margin Ecosystems: Historical Change, Hydrology, Vegetation, Sediment and Climate

Effects of Hydrological Restoration on Manatees: Integrating Data and Models for the Ten Thousand Islands

A Land of Flowers on a Latitude of Deserts: Aiding Conservation and Management of Florida's Biodiversity by using Predictions from Downscaled AOGCM Climate Scenarios in Combination with Ecological Modeling

Across Trophic Level System Simulation (ATLSS)


Select Bibliography:

DeAngelis, D.L., Jiang, J., Teh, S.Y., Koh, H.L., Smith, T.J., Langtimm, C.A., Swain, E.D., Krohn, M.D., and Stith, B.M., 2011, Modeling the effects of storm surges, in Koh, H.L., Liu, P.L-F., and Teh, S. Y. eds., Tsunami simulation for impact assessment, Proceeding Series, Penerbit Universiti Sains, Malaysia, Pulau Pinang, p. 8-18.

Jiang, J., D. L. DeAngelis, T. J. Smith III, S. Y. Teh, and H. L. Koh. 2012. Spatial pattern formation of coastal vegetation in response to external gradients and positive feedbacks affecting soil porewater salinity: a model study. Landscape Ecology 27:109-119

Swain, E. D., and Decker, J.D., 2010. A Measurement-Derived Heat-Budget Approach For Simulating Coastal Wetland Temperature With a Hydrodynamic Model; Wetlands, 30(3), Pages 635-648.

Martin, J., Fackler, P.L., Nichols, J.D., Lubow, B.C., Eaton, M.J., Runge, M.C., Stith, B.M., and Langtimm, C.A., 2011, Structured decision making as a proactive approach to dealing with sea level rise in Florida: Climatic Change, v. 107, p. 185-202.

FISCHS (Past and Future Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Habitats and Species)

The objective of this project is to integrate biological and hydrological models to develop management tools to deal with the projected ecological consequences of rising sea level in coastal south Florida. To develop a realistic suite of predictive tools, we are (1) Mapping the position of the mangrove-marsh ecotone at selected locations for six time periods, determining rates of change and relating those rates to rates of sea-level rise; (2) Developing new mechanistic models of coastal vegetation change and determine thresholds and tipping points for change; (3) Incorporating episodic disturbance from hurricanes to identify its impact on hydrology and vegetation; (4) Enhancing a coupled surface-water/ground-water hydrologic model to reliably hind-cast multi-decadal observed sea level rise, hurricane effects, and vegetation change; (5) Developing future-casting capability under projected climate change, SLR, and restoration scenarios. The insight on hydrologic, ecological, and topographic changes obtained from the Hindcast experimentation is used to extrapolate changes in the future-cast simulations; and (6) Using the hydrologic models to simulate variables for spatially-explicit population and habitat suitability index models for application to management problems.

Why is this research important?

These models have application beyond the Everglades. Extensive, low-lying coastal wetlands and estuaries are found throughout the USA and the world. Our methodology and results are directly applicable to future-casting effects of sea level rise, storm surge events, and climate change on potential changes in coastal vegetation. This has direct relevance for southern Florida, but is applicable to many tropical and subtropical coastlines. It is also applicable to future-casting and hind-casting the effects of local alterations in coastal hydrology by natural or human induced actions and to effects of tsunamis on low lying islands and coastal areas. Techniques can be used to identify water-management schemes that best maintain coastal ecosystems under projected sea level rise and climate change.

Principal Investigators: Catherine A. Langtimm, Donald L. DeAngelis, M. Dennis Krohn, Thomas J. Smith III, Bradley M. Stith, Eric D. Swain

Project Team: Ann M. Foster, Jiang Jiang, Melinda Lohmann, Paul R. Nelson, Ginger Tiling-Range, Zuzanna Zajac

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