Land Change Science Program

Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR)

Diagram of Scenario Construction

The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) develops natural hazard disaster scenarios as a strategy to increase community resilience or a community's ability to cope with the effects of a disaster ahead of time. This initiative began in 2006 as the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP), focusing primarily on multi-hazard scenarios in southern California. The ShakeOut earthquake, ARkStorm winter storm, and SAFRR Tsunami scenarios were developed collaboratively with partners and stakeholders to apply science to community decision-making and emergency management. The HayWIred Scenario is currently under development and focuses in on afterslip and aftershocks, building codes performance, communities at risk, and the internet economy. These scenarios are constructed from a foundation of earth science describing the multiple hazard events that are translated into physical and environmental damages, and social and economic consequences for emergency management exercises and policy discussions.

Key insights include (1) the California economy may be more vulnerable to earthquake induced fire and water service disruptions than damages from the earthquake hazards; (2) profiles of social characteristics for a regional winter storm evacuation underscore geographically diverse planning needs for mutual aid, carless populations; and multilingual communication; (3) agricultural losses for a winter storm scenario are dominated by perennial crop losses, affected by levee repairs and dewatering, and challenged by livestock evacuation; (4) flooded buildings is the source of the largest economic impacts and drag on economy in a winter storm scenario; (5) fishing is the most sensitive sector and manufacturing is the most exposed sector to a tsunami scenario affecting the San Pedro ports (6) various economic resilience strategies for damages and disruption at ports substantially reduce economic impacts; (7) the tsunami evacuation economic impact is comparable to other sources of disruption including coastal property damages and port disruptions, (8) the impact of a tsunami scenario is relatively small, but a major storm Is potentially the "other big one" for California (the "big one" being an earthquake like the ShakeOut scenario).

Project Lead: Anne Wein, awein@usgs.gov, Menlo Park, CA

Additional Information:
 USGS Science Application for Risk Reduction
 Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) - Economic Impacts and other Consequences

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