Estimated tsunami-related wave force and inundation extent in the Long Beach, CA. area, as modeled using the Next Wave tsunami scenario development model.
The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) develops natural hazard disaster scenarios as a strategy to increase community resilience or a community’s ability to cope with the effects of a disaster. This initiative began in 2006 as the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP), focusing primarily on multi-hazard scenarios in southern California. The ShakeOut earthquake and ARkStorm winter storm scenarios were developed collaboratively with partners and stakeholders to apply science to community decision making and emergency management. The SAFFR Tsunami Scenario is currently under development. These scenarios are constructed from a foundation of earth science describing the multiple hazard events that are translated into physical and environmental damages, and social and economic consequences.
For the ShakeOut scenario, we identified economic resilience strategies and estimated the economic impacts of building damages from shaking and fire following the earthquake, lifeline (water, wastewater, electric power and gas) service outages, damages to highway systems, and disrupted port operations. For the ARkStorm scenario, the economic impact analysis was expanded to the state of California and incorporated flood and wind damage to buildings, lifeline outages, agricultural damages, and evacuation. For The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, we are focused on the economic impacts from damages to the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles and disrupted supply chains. Business interruptions could also result from evacuation and damages to other ports, marinas, and buildings along the west coast of California.