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What if the PAGER information is wrong? How will we be able to trust the information that you provide?

 


a. The important thing to remember is that PAGER will provide a range of possibilities. That said, this program does entail risk, and it will sometimes be incorrect in its estimates. However, with each successive earthquake we expand our knowledge of its effects and can refine PAGER's program. This system is constantly updated to reflect our ever-expanding understanding of earthquakes and their consequences. The USGS team is working with a team of international regional experts to continually enhance the system with local knowledge.


b. PAGER will provide alerts for many, many earthquakes (hundreds per year). For most earthquakes, PAGER will quickly and accurately confirm that losses will not be expected. (This, too, is very useful, to avoid personnel at many agencies from activating unnecessarily). For about one or two dozen events, some casualties will be expected, and for several each year, many casualties will be expected. PAGER will build confidence in users by showing that over the long run it successfully determines which events fall into each category, even if occasionally the best estimate is off.
c. Users of PAGER products should understand the potential uncertainties and or inaccuracies associated with PAGER’s rapid loss-estimation capability: Individual or institutional users should use their own judgment and seek additional sources of information or advice before any decision making.

Tags: Seismology, Liquefaction, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Faults, Tectonics, Magnitude, Prediction