Does a shortage of rain mean that a drought will occur?
A period of below-normal rainfall does not necessarily result in drought conditions. Some rain returns to the air as water vapor when water evaporates from water surfaces and from moist soil. Plant roots draw some of the moisture from the soil and return it to the air through a process called transpiration. The total amount of water returned to the air by these processes is called evapotranspiration. Sunlight, humidity, temperature, and wind affect the rate of evapotranspiration. When evapotranspiration rates are large, soils can lose moisture and dry conditions can develop. During cool, cloudy weather, evapotranspiration rates may be small enough to offset periods of below-normal precipitation and a drought may be less severe or may not develop at all.
Moreland, J.A., 1993, Drought: USGS Open File Report 93-642