I.  Executive Summary  (NOAA/NGDC, DFO and Lead Authors)

II.  Technical Summary  (DFO with Lead Author review)

III.  Preface  (Agency leads and Lead Authors)

IV.  Context and Background for SAP1.2:  (DFO and Lead Authors)

Introduction (context setting)

1. Role of Arctic as sink for heat generated in tropics (maybe in the intro to the whole document)
1. Ocean heat transfer
2. Atm heat transfer
3. Precipitation along Equator-pole transects
2. Cenozoic Trends in Arctic temperature
1. Trends in temp – dynamic range of change
2. Changes in gradients between Equator and Pole
3. Establishment of gateways and modern ocean circulation
4. Glacial/interglacial change inferred from ocean records and EPICA
1. Normal CO2 and isotopes vs. temperature
2. CO2 changes vs the timing of temperature changes
3. Why were different interglacials different?
3. Forcings (general)

V.  Temperature and Precipitation:  Lead Author:  Brigham-Grette

1. Forcings and Feedbacks influencing Arctic Temperature and Precipitation
2. What external and internal natural factors influence Arctic temperature and precipt.
1. Milankovitch forcings of insolation
2. Volcanic forcings 
3. Green house gas forcing
4. Freshwater balance of the Arctic Ocean and THC
3. What are the most significant feedbacks operating at high latitudes? 
1. How does albedo work ? 
1. Ocean/sea ice feedbacks
2. Vegetation feedbacks
4. How does thermohaline circulation work
   
   
2. Proxies of Arctic Temperature and Precipitation 
2. Reconstruction of Temperature
1. Vegetation/pollen records 
2. Isotopic records 
1. Marine
2. Lacustrine
3. Ice cores
3. Biogeochemistry
4. Fossil content
1. Marine SSTs
2. Lake Temperatures
3. Reconstruction of Precipitation 
1. Vegetation/pollen records
2. Geomorphology
3. Isotopes
4. Lake level records
5. Fossils – beetles etc.
6. Ice Cores -
   
   
3. Geologic Record of Late Cenozoic Warm intervals (if the arctic has been warm before, why and how warm was it? Learning from earlier warm periods)
2. Pliocene – Cenozoic Greenhouse
3. 41 ka and 100 ka world (duration of earlier warm periods?)
4. Stage 11 – is it special?
5. Stage 5e (Eemian)
6. Stage 3 warm intervals vs. Holocene
7. Characterizing warmer intervals and possible tipping points based on
1. Vegetation shifts
2. Ocean temps/sea ice
3. Precipitation proxies
4. Permafrost proxies
5. Presence/absence and Size of the Greenland Ice sheet
8. What can we learn from sections a.-f. about the future and a warmer world? Wrap up of section IV.
   
   
4. Post-glacial history of Arctic Temperature and precipitation
2. Ice core records of rapid change 
3. Marine records of change -- emerging from the LGM
4. Land records (lakes and ice cores) of – emerging from the LGM
5. Younger Dryas temperature story – question of dynamics/tipping pts. (combine c. and d.)
6. Holocene Thermal Maximum 
1. Regional records of T&P
2. Forcings and Feedbacks
3. Sea ice link (reference Leonid's section)
4. Permafrost link
7. Is the Holocene climate Stable?  
1. What is stable?
2. Known natural cycles – noise on future trends
8. Late Holocene changes – what are we emerging from ?
1. Neoglaciation across the arctic
2. Medieval Warm Period – did it happen in the Arctic; Why?
3. Little Ice Age
1. Spatial and temporal evidence across the Arctic
2. Causes, forcings
9. Lessons from post-glacial climate and why now is different
   
   
5. Future Analogs from Natural Experiments on past Climate history of the Arctic
2. What is certain
3. What is probable
4. What is possible
5. Links to rates of change?

VI.  Rates of Change:  Lead Author: James White

1. Introduction
   
   
2. Variability versus change; definitions and clarification of usage
1. Weather vs. climate
2. Style of change
3. How to talk about rates of change
4. Spatial characteristics of change
   
   
3. Issues concerning reconstruction of rates of change from paleoclimatic indicators—absolute and relative dating, synchrony/asynchrony/diachrony, stratigraphic markers - what are the actual capabilities?
   
   
1. Marine 
2. Terrestrial
3. Ice-core
4. Sea level
   
   
4. Classes of changes, with attribution (Lead Authors)
1. Ice-age cycling
2. Dansgaard-Oeschger/Heinrich-Bond
3. Higher-frequency events especially in Holocene (solar forcing, volcanic eruptions, ENSO, NAO, AO, other; MWP/LIA)
   
   
5. Observed rates of change
   
   
6. Interpretation/Inferences

VII.  Greenland Ice Sheet:  Lead Author:  Richard Alley

Economic costs and ecosystem impacts of climate change are tightly coupled to the rate of change and not just to the ultimate magnitude.  This chapter will provide available information on paleoclimatically observed rates of change in the Arctic, focusing especially on temperature (primarily because of availability of data) but including other variables as possible, and providing spatial information where possible.  The past rates of change will be compared to projected rates over the next decades to centuries, to provide perspective for policymakers.  In addition, past rates of change will be attributed to causes, and change-rates associated with specific causes will be further characterized by persistence and predictability.  For example, the observed rates of change of temperature over the last ice-age cycle will be attributed via frequency content to ice-age/Milankovitch cycling (large but slow changes), Dansgaard-Oeschger cycling (regionally large, persistent, occasionally very rapid changes), solar, volcanic, and perhaps other forcings.  For obvious reasons, some comment on the nature of the Dansgaard-Oeschger and related events will be required, perhaps overlapping in part with the Abrupt-Change CCSP report.  Because of the expansive view of time, discussion of abrupt climate change in the Arctic paleoclimates report must start from the NRC definition of the phenomenon, not from the narrow view adopted in the CCSP Abrupt-Change report. 

1. Introduction - In order to answer this question, must provide background on GIS
   
   
2. Background on the Ice Sheet
   
   
1. The ice sheet—size, extent, sea-level equivalent
2. Behavior of the ice sheet—snowfall, melting, ice flow, iceberg calving
3. Ice-sheet response to forcing—volume changes in response to climatic and other forcing
4. Recent history—changes in snowfall, melting, and ice flow
   
   
3. Paleoclimatic indicators bearing on ice-sheet history
   
   
5. Marine 
1. Ice-rafted debris (IRD)
2. Ice-contact deposits
3. Meltwater evidence
4. Sea floor erosion
   
   
6. Terrestrial
1. Moraines
2. Physical stratigraphy
3. Lake core stratigraphy
4. Raised beaches
5. Fossils in all of the above
   
   
7. Ice-core 
1. Paleoclimatic indicators (synopsis)
2. Presence or absence of ice from a particular age
3. Dating of basal materials
4. Indications of ice cap size / total gas measurements
   
   
8. Sea-level (Far Field)
1. Shorelines
2. Beach deposits
3. Coral reef deposits
4. Modeling
   
   
9. Geodetic Data
1. Earth rotation
2. Far field sea level
3. Near field sea level
4. GPS (Isostatics
   
   
4. Ice-sheet and climate history (the “paleoclimatic indicators” contributing authors will supply information bearing on each time interval for which a particular indicator provides information)
   
   
4. Initiation of ice sheet
1. Age and climate
   
   
5. Pre-Eemian history including MIS 11 (re-initiation)
1. Evidence that ice sheet has disappeared and reformed in the past
2. Climate conditions associated with growth and decay
   
   
6. Eemian
1. Extent and thickness of the ice sheet during the Eemian
2. Climate of the Eemian
3. Modeling and far field sea level indications
   
   
7. Growth and maximum of most recent ice age
1. Heinrich and D-O events
2. Climate and response
   
   
8. End of most recent ice age
1. Timing of deglaciation and temperature change
2. Meltwater spikes
   
   
9. Holocene including Little Ice Age
1. Mid-Holocene retreat
2. Late-Holocene advance (into LIA)
3. Post LIA retreat
4. Current deglaciation
   
   
5. Attribution
   
   
6. Synopsis

VIII.  Sea Ice:  Lead Author:  Leonid Polyak

1. Introduction
   
   
2. Background on the Arctic sea ice cover
   
   
1. Controls on sea ice extent, drift, and duration
2. Influence of changes in ice cover on the climate system
3. Present day extent, historical change, and future projections
   
   
3. Types of paleo archives and proxies for sea-ice record
   
   
1. Ice cores (sea salts)
   Strength: continuous, long records, good resolution, age control
   Weakness: limited geography, evidence from remote areas
2. Marine sedimentary records (biological, geochemical, and sedimentological proxies)
• Continental margins
• Deep sea
Strength: local evidence, complete geographic coverage, continuous records
Weakness: short stratigraphies (on the shelves), low resolution (in deep sea), limited amounts of material, problems with proxy preservation, age control
3. Coastal records
   Strength: large exposures, local evidence, all relevant to interglacial sea ice extent
   Weakness: limited geography, discontinuous records, problems with proxy preservation, age control
   
   
4. Geographic regions
   
   
1. Central Arctic Ocean 
2. Margins
• Iceland & East Greenland margin  -  MIZ
• Baffin Bay  -  MIZ 
• Canadian Arctic & Beaufort margin  Chukchi Sea  -  MIZ 
• Siberian seas 
• Barents Sea  -  MIZ
Regions with MIZ  -  sensitive to minor changes in sea-ice extent
Regions without MIZ  -  capture big ice-reduction events


5. History of Arctic sea ice extent and circulation patterns, with an emphasis on low-ice periods
   
   
1. Pre-Quaternary history
2. Quaternary interglacials
4. Holocene
5. Historical records
   
   Indigenous knowledge in here
   
   
6. Synopsis

IX. Synthesis:  Lead Authors

X.  Glossary

XI.  References Cited