Summer rains have remained steady over the past 20 years, but are less than historic highs. Temperature has increased, and while the farmland per person is decreasing, population growth has been offset with improved yields.
Long-term reduction in rainfall and increasing temperature threaten Chad's future food production prospects; combined with rapid population growth and zones of substantial conflict, increasing numbers of people will be at risk.
Summer rains have remained steady for the past 20 years, but are below the long-term average. Current population and agricultural trends indicate increasing yields have offset population expansion, keeping per capita cereal production steady.
While summer rains have increased during the past 20 years, temperatures have increased as well, amplifying the effects of droughts. Crop yields are low but the population is growing, pointing to rising food insecurity.
Modest declines in rainfall, accompanied by increases in air temperatures, declining farmland per person, along with trends in population and agriculture could lead to a 30% reduction in per capita cereal production by 2025.
Long-term reduction in rainfall and increasing temperature threaten Uganda's future food production prospects; combined with rapid population growth these factors could increase the number of people who are at risk during the next 20 years.
Combining genetic data with current and predicted climate scenarios, we are modeling the predicted future distributions of wildlife populations in the Arctic and identifying key environmental variables that determine important animal habitat.
Changes in Arctic sea ice and permafrost will likely affect populations of wildlife. Migratory birds such as loons rely on freshwater lakes in the Arctic for nesting and food supply; we are studying how their populations are affected by these changes.
Loss of sea ice has increased ocean wave action, changing coastal habitats. For some geese this has been a positive change, increasing the amount of coastal area that supports vegetation the geese feed on.
Landscapes of interwoven wetlands and uplands offer a rich set of ecosystem goods and services. Changes in climate and land use can affect the value of those services. We study these areas to understand how they may be changing.
The Arctic is warming faster than other regions of the world due to positive climate feedbacks associated with loss of snow and ice. The USGS has modeled the future responses of polar bear and Pacific walrus populations to this environmental change.