Summer rains have remained steady for the past 20 years, but are below the long-term average. Current population and agricultural trends indicate increasing yields have offset population expansion, keeping per capita cereal production steady.
While summer rains have increased during the past 20 years, temperatures have increased as well, amplifying the effects of droughts. Crop yields are low but the population is growing, pointing to rising food insecurity.
Modest declines in rainfall, accompanied by increases in air temperatures, declining farmland per person, along with trends in population and agriculture could lead to a 30% reduction in per capita cereal production by 2025.
Long-term reduction in rainfall and increasing temperature threaten Uganda's future food production prospects; combined with rapid population growth these factors could increase the number of people who are at risk during the next 20 years.
Combining genetic data with current and predicted climate scenarios, we are modeling the predicted future distributions of wildlife populations in the Arctic and identifying key environmental variables that determine important animal habitat.