Science Impact
Ongoing Research Summaries
Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM)
— To reduce risk from the vagaries of the stock market and the economy, investors select financial portfolios based on their financial objectives and tolerance to risk. The USGS Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM) was developed as a tool for communities to preserve life and property assets reflected in land use from the vagaries of nature and natural hazards. The LUPM is a modeling, mapping, and risk communication tool that can assist public agencies and communities in understanding and reducing their natural-hazards vulnerability. The LUPM builds upon financial-portfolio theory, a method for evaluating alternative investment choices based on the estimated distribution of risk and return from different investment possibilities. The conceptual model has been developed into an interactive, GIS-based decision support system (DSS) that stakeholders can use to select locations in which to invest a hazard mitigation budget, evaluate metrics such as the mean and variance of community wealth, and compare and rank policies. The model is unique in that it allows users to think through various levels of risk tolerance and hazard acceptability and allows users to compare the cost effectiveness of different policy alternatives. During FY 2005, the LUPM was applied successfully in addressing earthquake risk in the Memphis, Tennessee area (see below) and in addressing risk mitigation in the event of severe flooding in Squamish, British Columbia (see below).
In FY 2006, the LUPM will be enhanced to incorporate: a temporal component, the ability to assessing interdependent multi-hazards probabilities, a spatial covariance term, and a capability to evaluate environmental issues.
Contact:
Richard Bernknopf, Western Geography Science Center,
rbern@usgs.gov
Developing Tools to Improve the Application of Science Information to Inform Earthquake Risk Mitigation Decisions in the City of Memphis and Shelby County, Tennessee
— In the winter of 1811-12, the central Mississippi Valley was struck by three of the most powerful earthquakes in U.S. history. Even today, this region has more earthquakes than any other part of the United States east of the Rocky Mountains. Government agencies, universities, and private organizations are working to increase awareness of the earthquake threat and to reduce loss of life and property in future shocks.
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| Isoseismal map for the earthquake of December 16,1811, 08:15 UTC. |
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This 19th century woodcut depicts damage from the 1811 earthquake near New Madrid, Missouri. |
Geographic information systems (GIS), with their ability to integrate disparate geospatial data, are important tools for understanding and communicating the spatial distribution of risks associated with seismic hazards in regional economies. While hazard mitigation decisions are typically made by individual property owners, their choices are often affected by external policies implemented on regional scales, such as tax incentives, building codes, ordinances and regulations. These policies not only affect the vulnerability of particular locations, but also have economic consequences (e.g. effects on property values, insurance costs, tax rates, etc). For this reason, determining the effectiveness of any one policy requires an approach that integrates GIS-based regional risk assessments with analyses of the economic consequences of different mitigation policies.
The USGS Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM) is a GIS-based modeling, mapping, and risk communication tool that can assist public agencies and communities in understanding and reducing their natural-hazards vulnerability. It incorporates aspects of financial-portfolio theory, which evaluates alternative investment choices based on the estimated distribution of risk and return for different investment scenarios. The LUPM has been developed into an interactive decision support system (DSS) that stakeholders can use to select locations in which to invest a hazard mitigation budget, evaluate metrics such as the mean and variance of community wealth, and compare and rank mitigation policies. The DSS is unique in that it allows users to think through various levels of risk tolerance and hazard acceptability and allows users to compare the cost effectiveness of different policy alternatives.
The city of Memphis, Tennessee and surrounding Shelby County has a dense urban population near faults capable of producing major earthquakes, a 25-40% probability of a magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake in the next 50 years, and relatively low regional attenuation (in other words, seismic waves do damage over a greater area in this region than for the same magnitude earthquake in the western U.S.). Because of these attributes, Memphis was chosen as a test site to evaluate the LUPM/DSS’s effectiveness in helping local government agencies evaluate the economic consequences of alternative mitigation strategies.
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Memphis, Tennessee, a major inland port and transportation hub, has a dense urban population near faults capable of producing major earthquakes. |
The initial phase of the project (2004-2005) involved an analysis of hypothetical mitigation strategies that compare the benefits and costs of structural mitigation for new commercial buildings. Various scenarios were conducted for ~12,000 vacant commercial parcels, using a hypothetical mix of structures with a total estimated value of $9.6 billion. Scenarios were run with and without geologic risk information, with estimated mitigation costs of 10% and 30% of new building values, and with planning horizons of zero, 20 and 50 years. Preliminary results demonstrate a) that geologic risk information can substantially reduce costs by more effective targeting of mitigation efforts, and b) that the choice of planning horizon markedly affects present-value estimates of mitigation benefits and costs. In the next phase of the project (FY2006), meetings will be held with City of Memphis and Shelby County agencies to discuss the practical utility of the LUPM/DSS, modify the model based on user input, and select additional test applications.
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Using GIS, the data layer for vacant commercial parcels (red polygons) was intersected with the liquefaction potential data layer to select out parcels with a 60% or greater risk of liquefaction. |
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| The LUPM/DSS works together with ArcGIS. The program allows users to construct various scenarios by entering different event probabilities, mitigation strategies and costs, and planning horizons. The model computes estimated mitigation costs, asset wealth lost, asset wealth retained, and associated standard deviations of each estimate. |
During FY 2006, the USGS will continue to work with the City of Memphis and Shelby County, TN to analyze risk associated with alternative earthquake mitigation plans so that risk reduction strategies can be developed for earthquakes. The database will be refined and policy scenarios will be selected for evaluation in cooperation with local officials.
Contacts:
Richard Bernknopf,
rbern@usgs.gov
Paul Hearn,
phearn@usgs.gov
— The USGS is working with Natural Resources Canada to develop new ways for decision makers and planners in the transboundary Puget Sound area (Vancouver, British Columbia - Seattle, Washington region) to apply scientific information about natural hazards and the potential risks to communities. In FY 2005, the USGS Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM) decision support system was used in the District of Squamish for a preliminary demonstration evaluation of risk mitigation alternatives for multiple flood events. Squamish is planning for a sharp increase in population as a result of the Vancouver Winter Olympic Games to be held in 2010. The LUPM will be used by practitioners to quantify and analyze hazard and risk scenarios to assess community vulnerability and risk to hazards and the impact that proposed mitigation strategies may have on reducing that risk. In FY 2005, initial results for the vulnerability-risk analysis framework for flood events were presented in a workshop in Squamish. The workshop objective was to pilot the multi-hazard risk assessment framework to assist the community in evaluating:
Contact:
Richard Bernknopf, Western Geographic Science Center, rbern@usgs.gov
Understanding Societal Vulnerability to Tsunamis and Other Natural Hazards
— With the recent disasters in the Indian Ocean and in the U.S. Gulf Coast, reducing potential losses from natural hazards in coastal communities is one of the critical issues of the 21st century. To reduce potential losses, public and private decision makers must understand the hazards in their communities and their vulnerability to these hazards. The USGS is helping local and state practitioners and community members by augmenting its traditional expertise in natural hazards with improved capacity to assess vulnerability, defined here as the exposure, sensitivity, and resilience of a community. With this knowledge, local and state land use managers will be able to develop resilient and sustainable communities. Emergency managers will be able to prioritize limited resources in the development of realistic and efficient preparedness and mitigation efforts. Private individuals will be able to develop risk-reduction plans for their families and businesses.
Recent USGS research efforts have focused on assessing the vulnerability of coastal communities in Oregon to catastrophic tsunamis and providing training opportunities to assess pre-event vulnerability and post-disaster recovery. This combination of efforts provides a holistic approach to risk analysis and shifts discussions of risk from simple inventories of exposed assets to community-wide understanding of system resilience. Specific project elements include:
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| Recent research suggests that a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake could create tsunami waves that impact over 1,000-km of coastline in the U.S. and Canada. To understand local community vulnerability posed by these hazards, USGS researchers are assessing variations in land-cover and land-use patterns, demographic characteristics, business and employment patterns, and level of resilience planning. |
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| Representatives from Hood River County, Oregon, at the 2006 Vulnerability Assessment Workshop, in The Dalles, Oregon, January 25, 2006. | USGS researcher Rachel Sleeter (left) speaking with representatives from U.S. Postal Service and Oregon Department of Transportation at the Post-Disaster Tsunami Recovery Forum in Cannon Beach, Oregon, March 2, 2006. |
A core element of the United States Geological Survey’s (USGS) mission is to provide scientific information to minimize loss of life and property from natural disasters. The risk of natural disaster is a function of the hazards of a place and the land use choices that societies make. The vulnerability of communities to natural hazards is due to a complex interaction of natural processes, land-use decisions and resilience planning. Through efforts like those outlined above, the USGS is committed to improving the Nation’s ability to understand how communities become vulnerable to natural hazards and what can be done to reduce risks.
In FY 2006, the USGS will continue to focus on the vulnerability of Oregon coastal communities to catastrophic earthquakes and tsunamis. Geospatial information gathered in FY 2005 will be analyzed in FY 2006 to determine regional metrics of vulnerability to tsunamis. Results to date indicate the presence of a significant seasonal and workforce population in high hazard zones; therefore, a combination of census data and local knowledge is needed to understand population risk in coastal communities. Results also indicate that many businesses in high tsunami-hazard zones a re the primary employers and economic drivers in coastal communities, suggesting that a tsunami would drastically impact the regional economy. In FY 2006, the USGS will deliver results of this study at a post-tsunami recovery forum to be held in Cannon Beach, Oregon. In addition, the USGS will provide technical content for vulnerability assessment training to support pre-disaster mitigation planning in communities along the Columbia River. The USGS is conducting this research and training opportunity in collaboration with the Oregon Partners for Disaster Resistance and Resilience, a statewide initiative that involves the Oregon Natural Hazards Workgroup.
Contact:
Nathan Wood,
nwood@usgs.gov
Using Science in Collaborative Processes to Support Resource Management
— USGS is working with MIT, BLM, USFWS, and the DOI Office of Collaborative Action and Dispute Resolution through the MIT-USGS Science Impact Collaborative (MUSIC) to develop tools and methods for more effective use of science in collaborative processes that bring diverse stakeholders together to solve resource management problems. In FY 2005, research focused on developing: 1) a negotiated rule making process for the designation of offshore wind farms given the new responsibilities of the Minerals Management Service under the National Energy Legislation, 2) a regional approach to the placement of coastal and offshore LNG facilities using a joint fact finding (collaborative) process, and 3) guidelines for incorporating joint fact finding and adaptive management in collaboration with BLM.
During FY 2006, the USGS will continue research through the MIT-USGS Science Impact Collaborative (MUSIC) on developing methods and tools for using science in collaborative processes to help solve resource management problems. New research efforts will focus on water allocation issues in Hawaii, mountaintop mining in West Virginia , sage grouse ecosystem restoration and development issues in Colorado and Nevada , the designation of multi-use trails in Saguaro National Park , development a collaborative process approach to NEPA, and new approaches to joint fact finding in the Tomales Bay watershed, CA.
Contact:Using Science in Developing and Applying Environmental Indicators in the Colorado Front Range
— The Colorado Front Range is a rapidly changing region where land use change, energy development, and public lands management policies overlap and sometimes conflict. In spite of considerable effort, barriers remain to the application of multi-disciplinary science by decision makers to human and environmental issues. The USGS worked with Colorado State University to understand why barriers exist and to guide development of regional natural resource and quality of life indicators to describe the state of the Colorado Front Range. The goal was to identify objective, credible, and non-partisan indicators to serve as an unbiased core around which regional environmental and quality-of-life policies can be debated and decisions made. A workshop on this topic was help in November 2004 including farmers, water providers, state and local government representatives, private companies and not-for-profit groups as well as scientists from state institutions and federal agencies, including the Departments of the Interior and Agriculture. The first-cut list of indicators is posted to: http://rockyweb.cr.usgs.gov/pulse/. A Fact Sheet (2005-3021), and a poster presented at a regional meeting of grassland managers are also available on the website. The 44 workshop participants agreed that indicators of condition are useful only if they pass a stringent set of scientifically rigorous tests, including relevancy, measurability, repeatability, understandability, and cost-effectiveness. A workshop report and proposed data assessment methods have been circulated to environmental decision-makers across the Front Range.
Contact:
Jill Baron, Fort Collins Science Center, jill_baron@usgs.gov
Tahoe Decision Support System
— The federal, state, and local agencies responsible for managing and monitoring aspects of the Lake Tahoe Basin in California and Nevada (the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency, Lahontan Regional Water Quality Control Board, Nevada Division of Environmental Protection, and Forest Service) have formed the collaborative Pathway 2007 Planning Process to define the desired future environmental and economic conditions for the Tahoe Basin and to create a 20-year plan to achieve these conditions. The USGS, funded in part through the Southern Nevada Public Lands Management Act, has been developing the Tahoe Decision Support System to aid decision-making as part of Pathway 2007. The USGS has developed population-growth and land-use-change models, as well as gathered insights, data, and models that will be necessary to fulfill the project’s larger long-term vision: to construct a fully-integrated and well-quantified decision support system software tool. The decision support system will be used in 2007 by the Pathway 2007 Planning Process to project outcomes of various management strategies, regulations, and project implementations (referred to as scenarios) and provide a means to consider multiple factors in the selection of the best management plan. In FY 2005, the USGS created a scenario reflecting current conditions and assuming no change to management strategies, then projected land-use and population under the scenario and analyzed what can be determined about the future condition of the Tahoe Basin given the projections and existing data and models. The USGS presented its findings to the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency’s Advisory Planning Committee and Governing Board, and summarized them in an article for the Journal of the Nevada Water Resources Association.
The USGS will continue to work with the collaborative Pathway 2007 Planning Process in the Lake Tahoe Basin in California and Nevada during FY 2006. The USGS is currently developing a set of scenario-generation software tools to translate user-defined scenarios into projected land-use extent and type, and projected population by segment (overnight visitor, seasonal resident, permanent resident, etc.) using the already developed land-use-change and population-growth models. The projections will be used during FY 2006 as inputs to water clarity and nutrient loading models under development by the Lahontan Regional Water Quality Control Board.
Contact:
David Halsing, Western Geography Science Center,
dhalsing@usgs.gov
Incorporating Uncertainty into Mercury Mitigation Decisions in the Sacramento River Watershed
— Water quality regulatory agencies in the Sacramento River watershed have the difficult task of devising strategies for reducing mercury levels in fish. Elevated mercury levels in fish may ultimately result from the erosion of materials from local legacy gold and mercury mining operations, but other environmental factors may be important. For example, there is significant uncertainty about the importance of other mercury sources (including atmospheric deposition and geothermal inputs) and the influence of “hotspots,” areas that have localized environmental conditions that greatly promote the formation of the toxic organic form of mercury. Because of these significant uncertainties and the difficulty in finding and mitigating hotspots, choosing a watershed-scale strategy for reducing mercury levels in fish is very complicated and the possibility of failure is significant. In particular, decision-makers risk choosing an expensive mitigation strategy that has negligible impact on mercury levels in fish. USGS researchers, in collaboration with Stanford University, USEPA Region 9, California Central Valley Regional Water Quality Control Board staff, and the Sacramento County Regional Sanitation District, have developed a decision model that incorporates the various uncertainties in this complex water quality decision problem, allowing decision-makers to consider tradeoffs between the risks of not meeting various environmental targets and the significant strategy costs. This decision support approach has been described in a report to USEPA, “Incorporating Uncertainty into Mercury-Offset Decisions with a Probabilistic Network for National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System Permit Holders” (http://pubs.usgs.gov/ of/2004/1408/) and on the website, “Mercury and Decision Support in California” (http://geography.wr.usgs.gov/science/mercury/). This effort supports the USGS Geography Science Strategy goals of credible decision support (Goal 5) and information synthesis and knowledge creation (Goal 9).
Contact:
Bill Labiosa, Western Geography Science Center,
blabiosa@usgs.gov
Integrating Science with Resource Management through Collaborative Approaches and Adaptive Modeling Systems
— Federal land managers are called upon to make science-based decisions and to manage multiple resources under intense public scrutiny. The goal for resource managers is to optimize the management of multiple resources while minimizing negative impacts of any given decision. They also need an adaptive management framework to accommodate changing conditions. The USGS partnered with NPS, BLM, and USFS to develop a transportable collaborative modeling approach for adaptive management of ecosystems in Mesa Verde National Park (MEVE). This research addresses the following question: How do we more effectively link the appropriate USGS science with natural resource management decision making? The research strategy was to bring together collaborative problem-solving approaches with modular modeling tools applicable to multi-objective resource management needs in an adaptive management framework. Through efforts to couple the adaptive capabilities of the modular modeling system (MMS) with accepted principles of collaboration, the research is establishing a transportable methodology to link USGS science to the adaptive management needs of DOI land management agencies applicable across a wide range of ecosystems. This approach has been adopted for a newly developed BLM Partnership Series Course to be taught throughout the Western Interior entitled “Science in the Service of Stewardship.”
Contacts:
Christine Turner,
Christine Turner/GD/USGS/DOI
Integration of Sound Science and Adaptive Strategies in Sage Grouse Conservation Planning
Sage grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) populations have declined dramatically throughout their range across the western United States prompting the development of Conservation Strategy Plans by eleven western states and five federal agencies as well as several petitions to the US Fish and Wildlife Service to list the species as endangered. The Conservation Plans are state level compilations of the voluntary efforts being undertaken by local working groups of private and public landowners to mitigate the threats faced by sage grouse such as habitat destruction by cheat grass invasion, oil and gas development, and overgrazing, and increased predation, and disease.
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| Bi-State Local Working Group hosts Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agency technical committee assessing greater sagegrouse habitat range-wide. |
The Conservation Plans are seen as “living” documents continuously evolving through a collective process of adaptive management. The Plans are unprecedented collaborations of local stakeholders across millions of acres of sagebrush and a bold new experiment in conservation.
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| A pair of Sage Grouse. |
A critical element in the implementation of these plans is the exchange of scientific and local knowledge within and between local working groups. The USGS is working with the Bi-State local working groups of Nevada and California to research the information exchange process and improve the integration of results from current USGS studies of sage grouse biology into the local working group implementation process. Our research has including working sessions with stakeholders, knowledge management experts, legal scholars, and social scientists and has led to the use of innovative geospatial technologies embedded into the online versions of the Conservation Plans. Continuously updated interactive maps become part of the plan documents reflecting the dynamic quality of adaptive management.
Contact:
Alicia Torregrosa,
Alicia Torregrosa/NMD/USGS/DOI
Integrating Science and Economics in South Florida DOI Land Acquisition/ Stewardship Decisions
— South Florida’s national parks and wildlife refuges are threatened by accelerated growth of the surrounding built environment which alters the natural hydrology and ecology, and introduces harmful levels of sediment, nutrients and toxins. DOI scientists and land managers are faced with major informational and financial challenges and conflicting stakeholder interests in their efforts to manage and protect resources to fulfill their stewardship responsibilities. The primary objective of this effort is to develop an ecosystem portfolio model (EPM) for DOI scientists and managers to use to develop and prioritize strategies to restore and preserve the ecological health of South Florida parks and refuges in the face of intense population growth and development pressures. The EPM, a spatial decision support tool, will integrate natural science and economic information in a portfolio framework to assist with land use planning, l and acquisition, and land management decisions. The economic portfolio framework will allow DOI resource managers and decision makers to consider multiple objectives, while considering the quality of the scientific and economic information supporting the decision. Ultimately, success will depend on well coordinated, collaborative, and integrated efforts among participating agencies and stakeholders to implement a reasonable balance between human needs and the needs of the ecosystem. The USGS Priority Ecosystem Science ( PES) program, the DOI Critical Ecosystem Studies Initiative (CESI), and the USGS Science Impact Program have contributed to this effort. This effort supports USGS Geography Science Strategy goals of understanding past, present, and future environmental consequences of land change to support better management criteria (Goal 3), improving the scientific basis for vulnerability and risk assessment (Goal 4), credible decision support (Goal 5), providing timely, intelligent access to new and archive USGS geographic data for decision support (Goal 8), and providing information synthesis and knowledge creation (Goal 9).
Contacts:
Richard Bernknopf,
rbern@usgs.gov,
Paul Hearn, phearn@usgs,
Bill Labiosa, Western Geographic Science Center, blabiosa@usgs.gov
New Technologies for Communication during Disasters: How ordinary citizens have used USGS scientific information on the Internet
—An increase in hurricane frequency and intensity in the past few years has combined with increased building activity along our coasts to dramatically alter citizens’ vulnerability to extreme storms. The 2005 hurricane season, which involved massive evacuations of citizens from Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas, and unprecedented destruction of homes and businesses, highlighted how people and social groups communicate before, during, and following extreme storm events. The original scientific purpose of storm surge information produced by the USGS was to document and analyze coastal change. As this information has increasingly been made available in near real time over the Internet, it has been used by a broad range of public stakeholders to understand how extreme storms impact coastal communities, to characterize and model risk from storm surge, and to aid first responders. These public stakeholders include federal agencies such as FEMA and the US Army Corps of Engineers, and first responders from state and local governments.
The intense hurricane activity of the 2004 and 2005 seasons brought new audiences of ordinary citizens to the maps, photographs, and topographic data that are posted to the USGS websites. This research project documents and analyzes the use of USGS information by the general public in the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons. The research will be of interest to all public agencies that make geospatial data available on the Internet with the purpose of reducing vulnerability to natural hazards.
Communication is an important focus of hazard studies, and is directly related to how USGS information is used in hazard prevention, response, and mitigation. Communication during and following a disaster takes on characteristics different from ‘normal times’ (Mileti and O’Brien 1992). In disasters, more reliance is placed on informal and unconventional channels. A study of the 2004 hurricane season in the Caribbean demonstrated that local organization and awareness working from below is just as important for public safety as high-tech warnings from above (Walter 2005).
What happens when changes in technology allow locals to use high-tech tools that give them direct access to scientific data? The past two hurricane seasons provide a contrast. The 2004 hurricane season was characterized by passive use of USGS Internet information by the general public. People visited the USGS website and followed up with emails to scientists principally to determine the scope of damage to their properties. Because of changes in communication technologies, the 2005 hurricane season was dramatically different. USGS information was used actively by citizens to create new shared information resources and communities. The research documents and analyzes how citizens used USGS information and other geospatial data to communicate information about extreme storms using map blogs, wikis and map hacks. These new tools, enabled by the publication of open mapping languages such as Google’s Keyhole Markup Language (KML, a form of XML), allowed people to build geographically enabled websites. These websites became a community resource where people could actively post information or get information about missing persons and pets, alternative housing, and damage to neighborhoods. First responders made extensive use of these new technologies as an underpinning for more traditional forms of information. The question that this research seeks to answer is how is scientific information used by local citizens during extreme storms and how do new technologies impact the use of these forms of information?
By demonstrating the extent of local citizen use of USGS information, this research will contribute to new methods for displaying information and new ways to support communities and help them reduce vulnerability. The research will allow us to tailor existing dissemination methods to encourage such community involvement. These methods will be valuable for USGS and other public agencies that publish hazard information.
This project differs from traditional research projects at the USGS because it incorporates social science with physical science and employs qualitative methodologies (interviews, questionnaires, etc.)
This project has support from USGS Coastal and Marine Geology Program. Additional partnerships are being sought from other federal agencies and the academic community. The research will benefit from the technical expertise of USGS scientists at the Center for Coastal and Watershed Studies, Saint Petersburg, Florida.
The results or anticipated results of the research/project:
References
Mileti, D. S., and P. W. O'Brien. 1992. Warnings during disaster: Normalizing communicated risk. Social Problems 39: 40-57.
Walter, J., ed. 2005. World Disasters Report: Focus on information in disasters. Geneva: International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies.
Contact:
Barbara Poore, Barbara S. Poore/NMD/USGS/DOI@USGS
For more information on the Science Impact Program, please contact:
Carl D. Shapiro, Ph.D.
U.S. Geological Survey
516 National Center
Reston, VA 20192
(703) 648-4446 (Voice)
cshapiro@usgs.gov
U.S. Department of the Interior
U.S. Geological Survey
URL: http://
origin-www.usgs.gov
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September 18, 2006
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