MOViE Tool
Decision-Making with the Multiple Objective Vireo Explorer (MOViE) Tool for the Santa Clara River
This tool is constructed around a model that integrates the major factors influencing the continued recovery of Least Bell's Vireo along the Santa Clara River in California (i.e., habitat quantity and configuration, habitat quality, and cowbird parasitism). This tool is designed to allow users to explore the probability that species recovery goals will be met under different management scenarios despite model parameter uncertainty.
HOW TO USE: The tabs along to top allow the user to explore model results with regards to the projected stability and abundance of the population 50 years into the future. These values can be used to set overall management goals or objectives. The slider below each table allows the user to set different threshold values on the management goals.
The model incorporates broad ranges of parameter uncertainty that can be explored using the sliders to the left of the table. The table will automatically update to reflect the parameter ranges selected by filtering the model results to the ranges. The 'Quality Check' tab assures model results are robust by checking an adequate number of models are summarized under each scenario.
The tables under each goal tab represent a summary of all the model replications presented as the proportion of replications where the management goal (i.e. 'Mean population size was >= 200 pairs') was achieved. The table is arranged to explore the probability of the goal being met under different management scenarios. Each column represents a different habitat management scenario and the fecundity ranges in each row represent theoretically observable ranges under increasing control of nest parasitism by brown-headed cowbirds.
Additional information and details are available in Stanton, J. C., J. Marek, L. S. Hall, B. E. Kus, A. Alvarado, B. K. Orr, E. Morrissette, L. Riege, and W. E. Thogmartin. 2019. Recovery planning in a dynamic system: integrating uncertainty into a decision support tool for an endangered songbird. Ecology and Society 24(4):11. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-11169-240411
CONTACT: Please send questions, comments, suggestions for improvements, and error reports via email to USGS - Upper Midwest Environmental Science Scenter c/o Jessica Stanton (jcstanton@usgs.gov)
DISCLAIMER: This software has been approved for release by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Although the software has been subjected to rigorous review, the USGS reserves the right to update the software as needed pursuant to further analysis and review. No warranty, expressed or implied, is made by the USGS or the U.S. Government as to the functionality of the software and related material nor shall the fact of release constitute any such warranty. Furthermore, the software is released on condition that neither the USGS nor the U.S. Government shall be held liable for any damages resulting from its authorized or unauthorized use.
Number of replications summarized
The table below summarizes the number of model replicates summarized under each management scenario and fecundity range. Moving the sliders to the left filters model results to show only the ranges represented. Heavily restricted parameter ranges may result in an inadequate number of model results being summarized.
Mean population size
This result summarizes the mean population size over the duration of the simulation. The table at the top shows the proportion of model replicates that meet or exceed the management goal for each habitat management scenario under a range of productivity values. The figure below shows the distribution of model results.
Use the slider below to change the management goal.
Use the sliders to the left to explore the effect of the range of input parameters.
The parameter sliders work by filtering model results to summarize over the specified ranges. The "Quality Check" tab specifies the number of model replicates being summarized.
Minimum population size
This result summarizes the minimum population size at any point over the duration of the simulation. The table at the top shows the proportion of model replicates that meet or exceed the management goal for each habitat management scenario under a range of productivity values. The figure below shows the distribution of model results.
Use the slider below to change the management goal.
Use the sliders to the left to explore the effect of the range of input parameters.
The parameter sliders work by filtering model results to summarize over the specified ranges. The "Quality Check" tab specifies the number of model replicates being summarized.
Final population size
This result summarizes the final population size at the end of the 50 year simulation. The table at the top shows the proportion of model replicates that meet or exceed the management goal for each habitat management scenario under a range of productivity values. The figure below shows the distribution of model results.
Use the slider below to change the management goal.
Use the sliders to the left to explore the effect of the range of input parameters.
The parameter sliders work by filtering model results to summarize over the specified ranges. The "Quality Check" tab specifies the number of model replicates being summarized.
Mean Population Growth Rate
This result summarizes the geometric mean of year-to-year changes in total population over the duration of the simulation. The table at the top shows the proportion of model replicates that meet or exceed a stable population growth rate for each habitat management scenario under a range of productivity values. The figure below shows the distribution of model results.
Use the sliders to the left to explore the effect of the range of input parameters.
The parameter sliders work by filtering model results to summarize over the specified ranges. The "Quality Check" tab specifies the number of model replicates being summarized.