Changing Arctic Ecosystems Active
Arctic regions of Alaska are important for cultural and economic sustainability and host a wide variety of wildlife species, many of which are of conservation and management interest to the U.S. Department of the Interior. The USGS and collaborators provide information about Arctic ecosystems that are used by Arctic residents, management agencies, and industry.
Return to Ecosystems
The objectives of the USGS Changing Arctic Ecosystems Initiative are to:
- Quantify the responses of wildlife species and their habitats to ecosystem change in the Arctic through research and assessments,
- Provide projections of likely future wildlife and habitat responses, and
- Make information publicly available to inform land and species management decisions and Alaska Native subsistence and co-management council actions.
Arctic Ecosystem Assessments
The USGS conducts natural hazard and resource assessments of the Earth’s ecosystems and the response of those ecosystems to environmental change, human activities, and land use. Information on recent assessments can be found in the fact sheet on USGS Arctic Ecosystems Assessments and in the publications below.
Additionally, a list of upcoming assessments is listed below:
- Behavioral responses of Central Arctic Herd to mitigation measures
- Effects of climate-induced variability on the behavior, distribution and demography of the Porcupine Caribou Herd
- Range expansion of Cryptosporidium and Giardia in Arctic Alaska relative to ecological change
- Population status of two rare taxa endemic to the central Bering Sea, Alaska: McKay’s Bunting and Pribilof Rock Sandpiper
- Assessing the effects of saxitoxin ingestion by Common Murres
- Demographic trend of the Pacific walrus, 2016-2024
- Quantifying body condition and relationships with reproductive success in Pacific walruses
Decisions Informed by the USGS Changing Arctic Ecosystems Initiative
Below are some examples of how this program is informing decision-making:
- Science for Oil and Gas Leasing-related Decisions
- Evaluating the efficacy of aerial infrared sensors to detect artificial polar bear
- Effect of spring phenology on current and future space use patterns of the Porcupine Caribou Herd in northern Alaska and Canada
- Summary of wildlife-related research on the Arctic Coastal Plain
- Catalogue of polar bear maternal den locations in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas
- Caribou use of habitat near energy development in Arctic Alaska
- Seismic survey design and impacts to maternal polar bear dens
- Determining priority habitats for molting waterfowl in the National Petroleum Reserve - Alaska
- Science Informing Endangered Species Act Decisions and Recovery Planning
- Regional walrus abundance estimate in the United States Chukchi Sea in autumn
- Analyses on Subpopulation Abundance and Annual Number of Maternal Dens for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service on Polar Bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Southern Beaufort Sea, Alaska
- Polar bear distribution and habitat resource selection data
- Ringed seal remain the main prey of southern Beaufort Sea polar bears
- Science Informing the Status and Trends of Migratory Birds
- Response of forage plants to alteration of temperature and spring thaw date: implications for geese in a warming Arctic
- Provided spatial and temporal maps of population change of waterbirds on Alaska’s North Slope
- Tracking data for three loon species in the Arctic
- Spatial distribution of band recoveries of black brant
- Data and model-based estimates from Pacific brant fall age ratio surveys at Izembek Lagoon, Alaska
- Science Informing the Status of Northern Ecosystems
- Survey of Arctic Alaskan wildlife for influenza A antibodies
- Ice wedge degradation impacts water budgets and nutrient cycling in Arctic ponds
- Surface water connectivity controls fish food web structure in Arctic Coastal Plain lakes
- Response of Arctic forage plants to changes in temperature and spring thaw date
- Willow drives changes in arthropod communities of northwestern Alaska and the ecological implications of shrub expansion
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
Below are publications associated with this project.
Advancing the match-mismatch framework for large herbivores in the Arctic: Evaluating the evidence for a trophic mismatch in caribou
Space use of a dominant Arctic vertebrate: Effects of prey, sea ice, and land on Pacific walrus resource selection
Forecasting the relative influence of environmental and anthropogenic stressors on polar bears
Multi-decadal trends in spring arrival of avian migrants to the central Arctic coast of Alaska: Effects of environmental and ecological factors
Changing arctic ecosystems—What is causing the rapid increase of snow geese in northern Alaska?
Changing Arctic Ecosystems: Updated forecast: Reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions required to improve polar bear outlook
Changing Arctic ecosystems: resilience of caribou to climatic shifts in the Arctic
Changing Arctic ecosystems: sea ice decline, permafrost thaw, and benefits for geese
Changing Arctic ecosystems: ecology of loons in a changing Arctic
Changing Arctic ecosystems--the role of ecosystem changes across the Boreal-Arctic transition zone on the distribution and abundance of wildlife populations
Mapping polar bear maternal denning habitat in the National Petroleum Reserve -- Alaska with an IfSAR digital terrain model
Changing Arctic ecosystems - measuring and forecasting the response of Alaska's terrestrial ecosystem to a warming climate
- Overview
Arctic regions of Alaska are important for cultural and economic sustainability and host a wide variety of wildlife species, many of which are of conservation and management interest to the U.S. Department of the Interior. The USGS and collaborators provide information about Arctic ecosystems that are used by Arctic residents, management agencies, and industry.
Return to Ecosystems
The objectives of the USGS Changing Arctic Ecosystems Initiative are to:
- Quantify the responses of wildlife species and their habitats to ecosystem change in the Arctic through research and assessments,
- Provide projections of likely future wildlife and habitat responses, and
- Make information publicly available to inform land and species management decisions and Alaska Native subsistence and co-management council actions.
Arctic Ecosystem Assessments
The USGS conducts natural hazard and resource assessments of the Earth’s ecosystems and the response of those ecosystems to environmental change, human activities, and land use. Information on recent assessments can be found in the fact sheet on USGS Arctic Ecosystems Assessments and in the publications below.
Additionally, a list of upcoming assessments is listed below:
- Behavioral responses of Central Arctic Herd to mitigation measures
- Effects of climate-induced variability on the behavior, distribution and demography of the Porcupine Caribou Herd
- Range expansion of Cryptosporidium and Giardia in Arctic Alaska relative to ecological change
- Population status of two rare taxa endemic to the central Bering Sea, Alaska: McKay’s Bunting and Pribilof Rock Sandpiper
- Assessing the effects of saxitoxin ingestion by Common Murres
- Demographic trend of the Pacific walrus, 2016-2024
- Quantifying body condition and relationships with reproductive success in Pacific walruses
Decisions Informed by the USGS Changing Arctic Ecosystems Initiative
Below are some examples of how this program is informing decision-making:
- Science for Oil and Gas Leasing-related Decisions
- Evaluating the efficacy of aerial infrared sensors to detect artificial polar bear
- Effect of spring phenology on current and future space use patterns of the Porcupine Caribou Herd in northern Alaska and Canada
- Summary of wildlife-related research on the Arctic Coastal Plain
- Catalogue of polar bear maternal den locations in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas
- Caribou use of habitat near energy development in Arctic Alaska
- Seismic survey design and impacts to maternal polar bear dens
- Determining priority habitats for molting waterfowl in the National Petroleum Reserve - Alaska
- Science Informing Endangered Species Act Decisions and Recovery Planning
- Regional walrus abundance estimate in the United States Chukchi Sea in autumn
- Analyses on Subpopulation Abundance and Annual Number of Maternal Dens for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service on Polar Bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Southern Beaufort Sea, Alaska
- Polar bear distribution and habitat resource selection data
- Ringed seal remain the main prey of southern Beaufort Sea polar bears
- Science Informing the Status and Trends of Migratory Birds
- Response of forage plants to alteration of temperature and spring thaw date: implications for geese in a warming Arctic
- Provided spatial and temporal maps of population change of waterbirds on Alaska’s North Slope
- Tracking data for three loon species in the Arctic
- Spatial distribution of band recoveries of black brant
- Data and model-based estimates from Pacific brant fall age ratio surveys at Izembek Lagoon, Alaska
- Science Informing the Status of Northern Ecosystems
- Survey of Arctic Alaskan wildlife for influenza A antibodies
- Ice wedge degradation impacts water budgets and nutrient cycling in Arctic ponds
- Surface water connectivity controls fish food web structure in Arctic Coastal Plain lakes
- Response of Arctic forage plants to changes in temperature and spring thaw date
- Willow drives changes in arthropod communities of northwestern Alaska and the ecological implications of shrub expansion
- Science
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
- Data
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
Filter Total Items: 38No Result Found - Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Filter Total Items: 62Advancing the match-mismatch framework for large herbivores in the Arctic: Evaluating the evidence for a trophic mismatch in caribou
Climate-induced shifts in plant phenology may adversely affect animals that cannot or do not shift the timing of their reproductive cycle. The realized effect of potential trophic “mismatches” between a consumer and its food varies with the degree to which species rely on dietary income and stored capital. Large Arctic herbivores rely heavily on maternal capital to reproduce and give birth near thAuthorsDavid D. Gustine, Perry Barboza, Layne G. Adams, Brad Griffith, Raymond D. Cameron, Kenneth R. WhittenSpace use of a dominant Arctic vertebrate: Effects of prey, sea ice, and land on Pacific walrus resource selection
Sea ice dominates marine ecosystems in the Arctic, and recent reductions in sea ice may alter food webs throughout the region. Sea ice loss may also stress Pacific walruses (Odobenus rosmarus divergens), which feed on benthic macroinvertebrates in the Bering and Chukchi seas. However, no studies have examined the effects of sea ice on foraging Pacific walrus space use patterns. We tested a seriesAuthorsWilliam S. Beatty, Chadwick V. Jay, Anthony S. Fischbach, Jacqueline M. Grebmeier, Rebecca L. Taylor, Arny L. Blanchard, Stephen C. JewettForecasting the relative influence of environmental and anthropogenic stressors on polar bears
Effective conservation planning requires understanding and ranking threats to wildlife populations. We developed a Bayesian network model to evaluate the relative influence of environmental and anthropogenic stressors, and their mitigation, on the persistence of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Overall sea ice conditions, affected by rising global temperatures, were the most influential determinantAuthorsTodd C. Atwood, Bruce G. Marcot, David C. Douglas, Steven C. Amstrup, Karyn D. Rode, George M. Durner, Jeffrey F. BromaghinMulti-decadal trends in spring arrival of avian migrants to the central Arctic coast of Alaska: Effects of environmental and ecological factors
Warming in the Arctic has caused the transition from winter to summer to occur weeks earlier over the last half century, yet little is known about whether avian migrants have altered their timing of arrival on breeding areas to match this earlier seasonal transition. Over a 50-yr period, we examined trends in the timing of the first arrival for 16 avian migrant species at the terminus of their norAuthorsDavid H. Ward, J. Helmericks, Jerry W. Hupp, L. McManus, Michael Budde, David C. Douglas, K.D. TapeChanging arctic ecosystems—What is causing the rapid increase of snow geese in northern Alaska?
Through the Changing Arctic Ecosystems (CAE) initiative, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) informs key resource management decisions for Arctic Alaska by providing scientific information on current and future ecosystem response to a warming climate. The Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of northern Alaska is a key study area within the USGS CAE initiative. This region has experienced a warming trend overAuthorsJerry W. Hupp, David H. Ward, Mary E. Whalen, John M. PearceChanging Arctic Ecosystems: Updated forecast: Reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions required to improve polar bear outlook
The Arctic is warming faster than other regions of the world due to the loss of snow and ice, which increases the amount of solar energy absorbed by the region. The most visible consequence has been the rapid decline in sea ice over the last 3 decades-a decline projected to bring long ice-free summers if greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are not significantly reduced. The polar bear (Ursus maritimus)AuthorsKaren L. Oakley, Todd C. Atwood, Douglas N. Mugel, Karyn D. Rode, Mary E. WhalenChanging Arctic ecosystems: resilience of caribou to climatic shifts in the Arctic
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Changing Arctic Ecosystems (CAE) initiative strives to inform key resource management decisions for Arctic Alaska by providing scientific information and forecasts for current and future ecosystem response to a warming climate. Over the past 5 years, a focal area for the USGS CAE initiative has been the North Slope of Alaska. This region has experienced a warmingAuthorsDavid D. Gustine, Layne G. Adams, Mary E. Whalen, John M. PearceChanging Arctic ecosystems: sea ice decline, permafrost thaw, and benefits for geese
Through the Changing Arctic Ecosystems (CAE) initiative, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) strives to inform resource management decisions for Arctic Alaska by providing scientific information on current and future ecosystem response to a warming climate. A key area for the USGS CAE initiative has been the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska. This region has experienced a warming trend over thAuthorsPaul L. Flint, Mary E. Whalen, John M. PearceChanging Arctic ecosystems: ecology of loons in a changing Arctic
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Changing Arctic Ecosystems (CAE) initiative informs key resource management decisions for Arctic Alaska by providing scientific information on current and future ecosystem response to a changing climate. From 2010 to 2014, a key study area for the USGS CAE initiative has been the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska. This region has experienced rapid warming duAuthorsBrian D. Uher-Koch, Joel A. Schmutz, Mary E. Whalen, John M. PearceChanging Arctic ecosystems--the role of ecosystem changes across the Boreal-Arctic transition zone on the distribution and abundance of wildlife populations
Arctic and boreal ecosystems provide important breeding habitat for more than half of North America’s migratory birds as well as many resident species. Northern landscapes are projected to experience more pronounced climate-related changes in habitat than most other regions. These changes include increases in shrub growth, conversion of tundra to forest, alteration of wetlands, shifts in species’AuthorsLance McNew, Colleen M. Handel, John M. Pearce, Anthony R. DeGange, Leslie Holland-Bartels, Mary E. WhalenMapping polar bear maternal denning habitat in the National Petroleum Reserve -- Alaska with an IfSAR digital terrain model
The National Petroleum Reserve–Alaska (NPR-A) in northeastern Alaska provides winter maternal denning habitat for polar bears (Ursus maritimus) and also has high potential for recoverable hydrocarbons. Denning polar bears exposed to human activities may abandon their dens before their young are able to survive the severity of Arctic winter weather. To ensure that wintertime petroleum activities doAuthorsGeorge M. Durner, Kristin S. Simac, Steven C. AmstrupChanging Arctic ecosystems - measuring and forecasting the response of Alaska's terrestrial ecosystem to a warming climate
The Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska is a complex landscape of lakes, streams, and wetlands scattered across low relief tundra that is underlain by permafrost. This region of the Arctic has experienced a warming trend over the past three decades, leading to thawing of on-shore permafrost and the disappearance of sea ice at an unprecedented rate. The loss of sea ice has increased ocean waveAuthorsJohn M. Pearce, Anthony R. DeGange, Paul L. Flint, Tom F. Fondell, David D. Gustine, Leslie E. Holland-Bartels, Andrew G. Hope, Jerry W. Hupp, Joshua C. Koch, Joel A. Schmutz, Sandra L. Talbot, David H. Ward, Mary E. Whalen