Developing New Strategies for Modeling and Assessing the Response of Global Inland Fisheries to Regional Changing Climate Completed

Despite the important effects of inland fisheries on food, economy, and ecosystem services throughout the world, no comprehensive understanding on the status or key drivers of inland fisheries exists (Beard et al. 2011). Our lack of knowledge regarding the status results from the common belief that inland fishery harvests are widely under reported (FAO 2009; Welcomme et al. 2010), particularly the contributions from recreational, artisanal, and illegal fisheries (FAO 2003; Allan et al. 2005). Overcoming this knowledge gap has no simple solution, given that resources to conduct on-the-ground fisheries assessments are lacking throughout much of the world, particularly in Africa or Asia where the majority of the inland fisheries harvest for subsistence and commercial purposes occurs (FAO 2003). At the local level, the lack of reliable data on the status of fish populations constrains the ability of managers to intervene when fisheries are in decline, until the system has virtually collapsed. It is worth reemphasizing that sustainable inland fisheries are essential in the battle towards poverty eradication and improved nutrition in many of the least developed countries, and that poverty eradication is one of the key Millennium Development Goals set forth by the United Nations. Inland systems also will be vulnerable to changes in climate and land use in the coming century (Ficke et al. 2007; Brander 2007), and knowledge gaps in status and function of inland fisheries will exacerbate the inability of managers to mitigate climate-induced changes in fish populations. Relative to marine systems, habitats in inland systems will likely be more influenced by changes in precipitation patterns (and water levels) and thermal structure, and landlocked inland fish species likely have less ability to migrate to optimal water temperatures. 



This project aimed to develop tools to narrow existing knowledge gaps on the status and key drivers of inland fisheries, given their importance in providing food and a means for poverty alleviation for people in developing countries and in driving economies in developed countries. By providing models that provide potentially less biased estimates of fish production as well as some key variables that could predict fish production, managers would have better information to both manage these key fisheries and their allied ecosystems presently and prepare for the effective governance of these resources in the face of future local and global climate, land and water induced changes.