Fire and Climate Suitability for Woody Vegetation Communities in the South Central United States Completed
Climate and fire are global drivers of plant species distributions in the south central United States. Long-term management of vegetation communities can benefit from information on projected spatial changes in climate and fire frequencies.
The Issue: In the south central US, climate is a key factor in the historical high wildfire frequencies in east Texas and Oklahoma as well as the spatially variable historical wildfire frequency in west Texas and New Mexico. Long-term management of vegetation communities can benefit from information on projected spatial changes in climate and fire frequencies. For example, future rearrangement of conditions under which certain communities have been dominant may expand or contract relative to historic patterns. Environmental suitability models can indicate where on the landscape future conditions favoring communities dominated by long-lived tree species might occur.
Addressing the Issue: The primary objective of our work was to develop simple models to spatially relate fire probability and climate conditions to historic distributions of important woody communities in Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico USA, and project where on the landscape these conditions might occur in the future. The modeled communities included an oak type dominated by post oak and blackjack oak (Quercus stellata and Q. marilandica), a mesquite type dominated by honey mesquite and velvet mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa and P. velutina), and a pinyon-juniper type dominated by pinyon pine and Utah juniper (Pinus edulis and Juniperus osteosperma). Collaborators from the University of Missouri used downscaled climate projections in their Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model to calculate and map future fire probabilities for 2020 – 2069 and 2070 – 2099.
Results: We developed fire-climate suitability models for each community using projected future climate and fire probabilities as inputs in the modeling freeware MAXENT. We mapped future fire-climate suitability and locations of threshold conditions for each vegetation community. The inclusion of fire probabilities adds an important driver of vegetation distribution to environmental envelope modeling for woody communities. Results showed potential future de-coupling and spatial re-arrangement of environmental conditions under which these communities have historically persisted and been managed. In particular, maps that show consensus among all models regarding continued environmental suitability through the twenty-first century can inform long-term planning for maintenance or restoration of these communities, indicating locations in which they might be maintained, restored, or established.
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Return to Conservation, Quantitative, and Restoration Ecology
Below are publications associated with this project.
Fire and climate suitability for woody vegetation communities in the south central United States
Future southcentral US wildfire probability due to climate change
Below are partners associated with this project.
- Overview
Climate and fire are global drivers of plant species distributions in the south central United States. Long-term management of vegetation communities can benefit from information on projected spatial changes in climate and fire frequencies.
The Issue: In the south central US, climate is a key factor in the historical high wildfire frequencies in east Texas and Oklahoma as well as the spatially variable historical wildfire frequency in west Texas and New Mexico. Long-term management of vegetation communities can benefit from information on projected spatial changes in climate and fire frequencies. For example, future rearrangement of conditions under which certain communities have been dominant may expand or contract relative to historic patterns. Environmental suitability models can indicate where on the landscape future conditions favoring communities dominated by long-lived tree species might occur.
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media DetailsAddressing the Issue: The primary objective of our work was to develop simple models to spatially relate fire probability and climate conditions to historic distributions of important woody communities in Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico USA, and project where on the landscape these conditions might occur in the future. The modeled communities included an oak type dominated by post oak and blackjack oak (Quercus stellata and Q. marilandica), a mesquite type dominated by honey mesquite and velvet mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa and P. velutina), and a pinyon-juniper type dominated by pinyon pine and Utah juniper (Pinus edulis and Juniperus osteosperma). Collaborators from the University of Missouri used downscaled climate projections in their Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model to calculate and map future fire probabilities for 2020 – 2069 and 2070 – 2099.
Results: We developed fire-climate suitability models for each community using projected future climate and fire probabilities as inputs in the modeling freeware MAXENT. We mapped future fire-climate suitability and locations of threshold conditions for each vegetation community. The inclusion of fire probabilities adds an important driver of vegetation distribution to environmental envelope modeling for woody communities. Results showed potential future de-coupling and spatial re-arrangement of environmental conditions under which these communities have historically persisted and been managed. In particular, maps that show consensus among all models regarding continued environmental suitability through the twenty-first century can inform long-term planning for maintenance or restoration of these communities, indicating locations in which they might be maintained, restored, or established.
Return to Ecological Restoration
Return to Conservation, Quantitative, and Restoration Ecology
- Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Fire and climate suitability for woody vegetation communities in the south central United States
Climate and fire are primary drivers of plant species distributions. Long-term management of south central United States woody vegetation communities can benefit from information on potential changes in climate and fire frequencies, and how these changes might affect plant communities. We used historical (1900 to 1929) and future (2040 to 2069 and 2070 to 2099) projected climate data for the conteAuthorsEsther Stroh, Matthew Struckhoff, Michael C. Stambaugh, Richard P. GuyetteFuture southcentral US wildfire probability due to climate change
Globally, changing fire regimes due to climate is one of the greatest threats to ecosystems and society. In this paper, we present projections of future fire probability for the southcentral USA using downscaled climate projections and the Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (PC2FM). Future fire probability is projected to both increase and decrease across the study region of Oklahoma, New MexAuthorsMichael C. Stambaugh, Richard P. Guyette, Esther D. Stroh, Matthew A. Struckhoff, Joanna B. Whittier - Partners
Below are partners associated with this project.