Skip to main content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Publications

Filter Total Items: 10728

Collaborative hubs: Making the most of predictive epidemic modeling

The COVID-19 pandemic has made it clear that epidemic models play an important role in how governments and the public understand and respond to infectious disease crises. In the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, models were used first to estimate the true number of infections, then to provide estimates of key parameters, to generate short-term forecasts of outbreak trends, and to quantify the p

Estimating species misclassification with occupancy dynamics and encounter rates: A semi-supervised, individual-level approach

1. Large-scale, long-term biodiversity monitoring is essential to conservation, land management, and identifying threats to biodiversity. However, multispecies surveys are prone to various types of observation error, including false positive/negative detection, and misclassification, where a species is thought to have been encountered but not correctly identified. Previous methods assume an imperf

Highly variable acquisition rates of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) by birds on an Atlantic barrier island

Acquisition of ticks by bird hosts is a central process in the transmission cycles of many tick-borne zoonoses, but tick recruitment by birds has received little direct study. We documented acquisition of Ixodes scapularis Say on birds at Fire Island, NY, by removing ticks from mist-netted birds, and recording the number of ticks on birds recaptured within 4 d of release. Eight bird species acquir

Using genetic data to advance stream fish reintroduction science: A case study in brook trout

Widespread extirpation of native fish populations has led to a rise in species reintroduction efforts worldwide. Most efforts have relied on demographic data alone to guide project design and evaluate success. However, the genetic characteristics of many imperiled fish populations including low diversity, local adaptation, and hatchery introgression emphasize the importance of genetic data in the

Temperature optimum for marsh resilience and carbon accumulation revealed in a whole ecosystem warming experiment

Coastal marshes are globally important, carbon dense ecosystems simultaneously maintained and threatened by sea-level rise. Warming temperatures may increase wetland plant productivity and organic matter accumulation, but temperature-modulated feedbacks between productivity and decomposition make it difficult to assess how wetlands and their thick, organic rich soils will respond to climate warmin

Optimization of salt marsh management at the Petit Manan National Wildlife Refuge of the Maine Coastal Islands National Wildlife Refuge Complex, Maine, through use of structured decision making

Structured decision making is a systematic, transparent process for improving the quality of complex decisions by identifying measurable management objectives and feasible management actions; predicting the potential consequences of management actions relative to the stated objectives; and selecting a course of action that maximizes the total benefit achieved and balances tradeoffs among objective

Evaluating the effect of expert elicitation techniques on population status assessment in the face of large uncertainty

Population projection models are important tools for conservation and management. They are often used for population status assessments, for threat analyses, and to predict the consequences of conservation actions. Although conservation decisions should be informed by science, critical decisions are often made with very little information to support decision-making. Conversely, postponing decision

Reconciling models and measurements of marsh vulnerability to sea level rise

Tidal marsh survival in the face of sea level rise (SLR) and declining sediment supply often depends on the ability of marshes to build soil vertically. However, numerical models typically predict survival under rates of SLR that far exceed field-based measurements of vertical accretion. Here, we combine novel measurements from seven U.S. Atlantic Coast marshes and data from 70 additional marshes

Highly pathogenic avian influenza is an emerging disease threat to wild birds in North America

Prior to the emergence of the A/goose/Guangdong/1/1996 (Gs/GD) H5N1 influenza A virus, the long-held and well-supported paradigm was that highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks were restricted to poultry, the result of cross-species transmission of precursor viruses from wild aquatic birds that subsequently gained pathogenicity in domestic birds. Therefore, management agencies typicall

Optimization of salt marsh management at the Moosehorn National Wildlife Refuge, Maine, through use of structured decision making

Structured decision making is a systematic, transparent process for improving the quality of complex decisions by identifying measurable management objectives and feasible management actions; predicting the potential consequences of management actions relative to the stated objectives; and selecting a course of action that maximizes the total benefit achieved and balances tradeoffs among objective

Effects of stream intermittency on minnow (Leuciscidae) and darter (Percidae) trophic dynamics in an agricultural watershed

Stream intermittency is predicted to increase where water withdrawals and climate warming are increasing. In regions coupled with high fish diversity, understanding how intermittency influences fish trophic ecology is critical for informing ecosystem function. This study compared fish diets across seasons in perennial and intermittent streams to estimate the immediate and cumulative effects of str