Mathematical Modeling

Southeast Asia has long been the epicenter of AIV emergence. However, as demonstrated by H5NX, these viruses can quickly reach global spread and have significant impacts on poultry production and human health. We have two ongoing efforts funded by the National Science Foundation to help improve our understanding of AIV emergence, spread, and transmission in today’s rapidly changing landscape.

Eastern Ecological Science Center biologists are studying migration and population ecology of the rufa red knot, a bird species that is dependent on horseshoe crab eggs to complete its trans-hemispheric migration. The birds' spring migration is timed with spawning of horseshoe crabs because the eggs are the perfect food for a migrating red knot.

The Eastern Ecological Science Center is working closely with federal, state, and tribal partners to help inform decisions that reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from humans to North American wildlife, including bats.

The purpose of this work is to advance our understanding of how coastal wetland responses to SLR within the conterminous United States are likely to vary as a function of local, regional, and macroscale drivers, including climate. Based on our interactions with managers and decision makers, as well as our knowledge of the current state of the science, we propose to (a) conduct a national synoptic...

Seagrasses are among the most productive ecosystems on the planet. Water quality degradation and direct human disturbance have caused loss of nearly a third of the seagrass habitat worldwide. These threats are exacerbated by stresses associated with a changing global climate. Predicting how seagrass distribution, abundance, and species composition will change in response to increased temperature...

Ecological indicators of climate change are needed to measure concurrent changes in ecological systems, inform management decisions, and forecast the consequences of climate change. We seek to develop robust bird-based, climate-change indicators using North American Breeding Bird Survey data.

The Challenge: A synthesis of the role of disturbance, in all of its manifestations, on the establishment and development of the American Holly forest is required to guide future conservation measures. Because many forest fragments have already endured >30 years of chronic deer herbivory, a legitimate question of how much more impact by deer can be tolerated and still conserve the essential type...

The Challenge: The primary dune along barrier island beaches protects leeward vegetation from tidal fluctuation, salt spray and storm surge. However, storm surges like those experienced during Hurricane Sandy can obliterate the primary dune, transporting sand inland and burying existing vegetation. The dune rebuilds naturally as recovering vegetation traps wind-blown and waterborne sand. The rate...

The Challenge: Research goals of this project are to develop models, statistical methods, sampling strategies and tools for inference about animal population status from survey data. Survey data are always subject to a number of observation processes that induce bias and error. In particular, inferences are based on spatial sampling – we can only ever sample a subset of locations where species...

The Challenge: For decades, capture-recapture methods have been the cornerstone of ecological statistics as applied to population biology. While capture-recapture has become the standard sampling and analytical framework for the study of population processes (Williams, Nichols & Conroy 2002) it has advanced independent of and remained unconnected to the spatial structure of the population or the...

The Challenge: Wildlife science and management are guided by data, and it is unquestionably the case that the greatest success occurs when good data are analyzed by good statistical methods.

The Challenge: Much of wildlife research consists of the description of variation in data. Some of the variation results from spatial and temporal change in populations, while some results from biologically irrelevant sampling variation induced by the process of data collection. Distinguishing relevant from irrelevant variation is the first task of statistical analysis, but the job does not end...