Climate and Aquatic Ecosystems Active
Effects of changing climate on aquatic ecosystems requires understanding a complex series of interactions between terrestrial climates, their corresponding impacts on hydrological processes, and ultimately a suite of biological responses. These uncertainties stand in contrast to the urgent need for reliable information to be used in developing long-term strategies for climate adaptation to effectively manage threatened and endangered species and ecosystem services. We have approached the question of climate impacts in three ways: 1) by evaluating ecosystem responses to historical climatic variability, 2) contrasting climate versus other threats to aquatic species on contemporary time frames, and 3) developing approaches to projecting future conditions and guidelines for application.
Our work has often focused on understanding changes in stream flows and water temperatures, as these two factors are expected to be most responsive to climate and have impacts on a broad range of species. We have employed analyses of historical time series of water temperatures and long-term records of population abundance, as well as growth histories of long-lived individuals (e.g., freshwater mussels), to better understand both physical and biotic responses to observed climate variability. Our efforts to evaluate climate impacts across the range of broadly distributed and climatically sensitive species (e.g., threatened bull trout and inland cutthroat trout subspecies) are identifying threats from climate, as well as contemporary human-related influences. We are also studying how species respond to temporally and spatially variable climate-related conditions (e.g., behavioral thermoregulation, species phenologies, spatial landscape processes), which will provide key insights into their resilience as future changes are manifested. Studies about species responses to climate are evaluating sources and propagation of uncertainty so that key information gaps can be identified and addressed.
We are in the first decades of many to come that will be centered on understanding climate change. Our goal is to produce a durable foundation of scientific information that will be useful for years to come.
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
Below are publications associated with this project.
The NorWeST summer stream temperature model and scenarios for the western U.S.: A crowd-sourced database and new geospatial tools foster a user-community and predict broad climate warming of rivers and streams
Behavioral flexibility as a mechanism for coping with climate change
Spatial and temporal variability in the effects of wildfire and drought on thermal habitat for a desert trout
Thermal effect of climate change on groundwater-fed ecosystems
A simple prioritization tool to diagnose impairment of stream temperature for coldwater fishes in the Great Basin
Impacts of climatic variation on trout: A global synthesis and path forward
Local variability mediates vulnerability of trout populations to land use and climate change
Climate change and vulnerability of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in a fire-prone landscape.
Long-term growth-increment chronologies reveal diverse influences of climate forcing on freshwater and forest biota in the Pacific Northwest
Bull trout in the Boundary System: managing connectivity and the feasibility of a reintroduction in the lower Pend Oreille River, northeastern Washington
Can air temperature be used to project influences of climate change on stream temperature?
Probabilistic accounting of uncertainty in forecasts of species distributions under climate change
Below are news stories associated with this project.
- Overview
Effects of changing climate on aquatic ecosystems requires understanding a complex series of interactions between terrestrial climates, their corresponding impacts on hydrological processes, and ultimately a suite of biological responses. These uncertainties stand in contrast to the urgent need for reliable information to be used in developing long-term strategies for climate adaptation to effectively manage threatened and endangered species and ecosystem services. We have approached the question of climate impacts in three ways: 1) by evaluating ecosystem responses to historical climatic variability, 2) contrasting climate versus other threats to aquatic species on contemporary time frames, and 3) developing approaches to projecting future conditions and guidelines for application.
Our work has often focused on understanding changes in stream flows and water temperatures, as these two factors are expected to be most responsive to climate and have impacts on a broad range of species. We have employed analyses of historical time series of water temperatures and long-term records of population abundance, as well as growth histories of long-lived individuals (e.g., freshwater mussels), to better understand both physical and biotic responses to observed climate variability. Our efforts to evaluate climate impacts across the range of broadly distributed and climatically sensitive species (e.g., threatened bull trout and inland cutthroat trout subspecies) are identifying threats from climate, as well as contemporary human-related influences. We are also studying how species respond to temporally and spatially variable climate-related conditions (e.g., behavioral thermoregulation, species phenologies, spatial landscape processes), which will provide key insights into their resilience as future changes are manifested. Studies about species responses to climate are evaluating sources and propagation of uncertainty so that key information gaps can be identified and addressed.
We are in the first decades of many to come that will be centered on understanding climate change. Our goal is to produce a durable foundation of scientific information that will be useful for years to come.
- Data
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
- Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Filter Total Items: 33The NorWeST summer stream temperature model and scenarios for the western U.S.: A crowd-sourced database and new geospatial tools foster a user-community and predict broad climate warming of rivers and streams
Thermal regimes are fundamental determinants of aquatic ecosystems, which makes description and prediction of temperatures critical during a period of rapid global change. The advent of inexpensive temperature sensors dramatically increased monitoring in recent decades, and although most monitoring is done by individuals for agency‐specific purposes, collectively these efforts constitute a massiveAuthorsDaniel J. Isaak, Seth J. Wenger, Erin E. Peterson, Jay M Ver Hoef, David E Nagel, Charlie H. Luce, Steven W. Hostetler, Jason B. Dunham, Brett B. Roper, Sherry P Wollrab, Gwynne L Chandler, Dona L Horan, Sharon Parkes-PayneBehavioral flexibility as a mechanism for coping with climate change
Of the primary responses to contemporary climate change – “move, adapt, acclimate, or die” – that are available to organisms, “acclimate” may be effectively achieved through behavioral modification. Behavioral flexibility allows animals to rapidly cope with changing environmental conditions, and behavior represents an important component of a species’ adaptive capacity in the face of climate changAuthorsErik A. Beever, L. Embere Hall, Johanna Varner, Anne E. Loosen, Jason B. Dunham, Megan K. Gahl, Felisa A. Smith, Joshua J. LawlerSpatial and temporal variability in the effects of wildfire and drought on thermal habitat for a desert trout
We studied how drought and an associated stressor, wildfire, influenced stream flow permanence and thermal regimes in a Great Basin stream network. We quantified these responses by collecting information with a spatially extensive network of data loggers. To understand the effects of wildfire specifically, we used data from 4 additional sites that were installed prior to a 2012 fire that burned neAuthorsLuke Schultz, Michael Heck, David Hockman-Wert, T Allai, Seth J. Wenger, NA Cook, Jason B. DunhamThermal effect of climate change on groundwater-fed ecosystems
Groundwater temperature changes will lag surface temperature changes from a changing climate. Steady state solutions of the heat-transport equations are used to identify key processes that control the long-term thermal response of springs and other groundwater discharge to climate change, in particular changes in (1) groundwater recharge rate and temperature and (2) land-surface temperature transmAuthorsErick Burns, Yonghui Zhu, Hongbin Zhan, Michael Manga, Colin F. Williams, Steven E. Ingebritsen, Jason B. DunhamA simple prioritization tool to diagnose impairment of stream temperature for coldwater fishes in the Great Basin
We provide a simple framework for diagnosing the impairment of stream water temperature for coldwater fishes across broad spatial extents based on a weight-of-evidence approach that integrates biological criteria, species distribution models, and geostatistical models of stream temperature. As a test case, we applied our approach to identify stream reaches most likely to be thermally impaired forAuthorsJeffrey A. Falke, Jason B. Dunham, David Hockman-Wert, Randy A. PahlImpacts of climatic variation on trout: A global synthesis and path forward
Despite increasing concern that climate change may negatively impact trout—a globally distributed group of fish with major economic, ecological, and cultural value—a synthetic assessment of empirical data quantifying relationships between climatic variation and trout ecology does not exist. We conducted a systematic review to describe how temporal variation in temperature and streamflow influencesAuthorsRyan Kovach, Clint C. Muhlfeld, Robert K. Al-Chokhachy, Jason B. Dunham, Benjamin Letcher, Jeffrey L. KershnerLocal variability mediates vulnerability of trout populations to land use and climate change
Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of Coastal Cutthroat Trout (OncorhAuthorsBrooke E. Penaluna, Jason B. Dunham, Steve F. Railsback, Ivan Arismendi, Sherri L. Johnson, Robert E Bilby, Mohammad Safeeq, Arne E. SkaugsetClimate change and vulnerability of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in a fire-prone landscape.
Linked atmospheric and wildfire changes will complicate future management of native coldwater fishes in fire-prone landscapes, and new approaches to management that incorporate uncertainty are needed to address this challenge. We used a Bayesian network (BN) approach to evaluate population vulnerability of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in the Wenatchee River basin, Washington, USA, under curAuthorsJeffrey A. Falke, Rebecca L. Flitcroft, Jason B. Dunham, Kristina M. McNyset, Paul F. Hessburg, Gordon H. ReevesLong-term growth-increment chronologies reveal diverse influences of climate forcing on freshwater and forest biota in the Pacific Northwest
Analyses of how organisms are likely to respond to a changing climate have focused largely on the direct effects of warming temperatures, though changes in other variables may also be important, particularly the amount and timing of precipitation. Here, we develop a network of eight growth-increment width chronologies for freshwater mussel species in the Pacific Northwest, United States and integrAuthorsBryan A. Black, Jason B. Dunham, Brett W. Blundon, Jayne Brim-Box, Alan J. TepleyBull trout in the Boundary System: managing connectivity and the feasibility of a reintroduction in the lower Pend Oreille River, northeastern Washington
Many of the World’s rivers are influenced by large dams (>15 m high) most of which have fragmented formerly continuous habitats, and significantly altered fish passage, natural flow, temperature, and sediment fluxes (Nilsson and others, 2005; Arthington, 2012; Liermann and others, 2012). In the Pacific Northwest, dams on major rivers have been a major focus for fishery managers, primarily in regarAuthorsJason B. Dunham, Eric B. Taylor, Fred W. AllendorfCan air temperature be used to project influences of climate change on stream temperature?
Worldwide, lack of data on stream temperature has motivated the use of regression-based statistical models to predict stream temperatures based on more widely available data on air temperatures. Such models have been widely applied to project responses of stream temperatures under climate change, but the performance of these models has not been fully evaluated. To address this knowledge gap, we exAuthorsIvan Arismendi, Mohammad Safeeq, Jason B. Dunham, Sherri L. JohnsonProbabilistic accounting of uncertainty in forecasts of species distributions under climate change
Forecasts of species distributions under future climates are inherently uncertain, but there have been few attempts to describe this uncertainty comprehensively in a probabilistic manner. We developed a Monte Carlo approach that accounts for uncertainty within generalized linear regression models (parameter uncertainty and residual error), uncertainty among competing models (model uncertainty), anAuthorsSeth J. Wenger, Nicholas A. Som, Daniel C. Dauwalter, Daniel J. Isaak, Helen M. Neville, Charles H. Luce, Jason B. Dunham, Michael K. Young, Kurt D. Fausch, Bruce E. Rieman - News
Below are news stories associated with this project.