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Documenting, Mapping, and Predicting Invasive Species Using the Fort Collins Science Center's RAM (Resource for Advanced Modeling) Active

By Fort Collins Science Center November 10, 2016

The Resource for Advanced Modeling room provides a collaborative working environment for up to 20 scientists, supported with networked, wireless computing capability for running and testing various scientific models (e.g., Maxent, Boosted Regression Trees, Logistic Regression, MARS, Random Forest) at a variety of spatial scales, from county to global levels. Models use various predictor layers that can include current and future climate layers (near- and long-term projections), remote-sensing derivatives (such as MODIS phenology metrics), land cover, topography, and anthropogenic features.

Biologist Francesca Erickson records data after checking brown treesnake traps next to the Saipan International Airport.
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Biologist Francesca Erickson records data after checking brown treesnake traps next to the Saipan International Airport. USGS and other state, federal, and local partners are working together to help prevent these snakes from invading Saipan, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands.

Early detection and rapid assessment (ED/RA) is a crucial aspect of our national approach to the invasive species threat, exemplified by the USGS-led Brown Treesnake Rapid Response Team based on Guam. FORT research through the USGS National Institute of Invasive Species Science is striving to create and maintain a national capability to guide effective early detection, rapid assessment, and forecasting of harmful plants, animals, and diseases. FORT also is the physical home of the Resource for Advanced Modeling (RAM), formed to develop cooperative approaches for invasive species science that meet the urgent needs of land managers and the public.

A brown treesnake on frangipangi blossoms, by Bjorn Lardner, USGS.
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A brown treesnake crawls on some frangipangi blossoms in Guam. USGS photo.

Our mission at the RAM is to coordinate data and research from many sources and to predict and reduce the effects of harmful non-native plants, animals, and diseases in natural areas and throughout the United States. With a strategic approach to information management, research, modeling, technical assistance, and outreach, scientists at the RAM are meeting research goals. FORT researchers are investigating state and transition models, using them to help evaluate the costs and benefits of alternative management strategies for invasive species. For example, FORT has been working with a team on buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare) in Arizona, developing models to determine the potential spread of the invasive grass and the risks of inaction. Researchers plan to integrate these techniques into the suite of models already available through the RAM. Other efforts include continuing to develop new methods to integrate disparate data sets to feed into models. This work is in partnership with Colorado State University through development of the International Biological Information System (IBIS) and the Global Invasive Species Information Network (GISIN).

 

Below are publications associated with this project.

Filter Total Items: 13

Modeling suitable habitat of invasive red lionfish Pterois volitans (Linnaeus, 1758) in North and South America’s coastal waters

We used two common correlative species-distribution models to predict suitable habitat of invasive red lionfish Pterois volitans (Linnaeus, 1758) in the western Atlantic and eastern Pacific Oceans. The Generalized Linear Model (GLM) and the Maximum Entropy (Maxent) model were applied using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling. We compared models developed using native occurrences, using non
Authors
Paul H. Evangelista, Nicholas E. Young, Pamela J. Schofield, Catherine S. Jarnevich
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

Integrating subsistence practice and species distribution modeling: assessing invasive elodea’s potential impact on Native Alaskan subsistence of Chinook salmon and whitefish

Alaska has one of the most rapidly changing climates on earth and is experiencing an accelerated rate of human disturbance, including resource extraction and transportation infrastructure development. Combined, these factors increase the state’s vulnerability to biological invasion, which can have acute negative impacts on ecological integrity and subsistence practices. Of growing concern is the s
Authors
Matthew Luizza, Paul Evangelista, Catherine S. Jarnevich, Amanda M. West, Heather Stewart
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Fort Collins Science Center

Running a network on a shoestring: the Global Invasive Species Information Network

The Global Invasive Species Information Network (GISIN) was conceptualized in 2004 to aggregate and disseminate invasive species data in a standardized way. A decade later the GISIN community has implemented a data portal and three of six GISIN data aggregation models in the GISIN data exchange Protocol, including invasive species status information, resource URLs, and occurrence data. The portal
Authors
Catherine S. Jarnevich, Annie Simpson, James J Graham, Gregory J. Newman, Chuck T. Bargeron
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Science Synthesis, Analysis and Research Program, Science Analytics and Synthesis (SAS) Program, Fort Collins Science Center

Simulating long-term effectiveness and efficiency of management scenarios for an invasive grass

Resource managers are often faced with trade-offs in allocating limited resources to manage plant invasions. These decisions must often be made with uncertainty about the location of infestations, their rate of spread and effectiveness of management actions. Landscape level simulation tools such as state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) can be used to evaluate the potential long term conse
Authors
Catherine S. Jarnevich, Tracy R. Holcombe, Catherine Cullinane Thomas, Leonardo Frid, Aaryn D. Olsson
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Fort Collins Science Center

Using habitat suitability models to target invasive plant species surveys

Managers need new tools for detecting the movement and spread of nonnative, invasive species. Habitat suitability models are a popular tool for mapping the potential distribution of current invaders, but the ability of these models to prioritize monitoring efforts has not been tested in the field. We tested the utility of an iterative sampling design (i.e., models based on field observations used
Authors
Alycia W. Crall, Catherine S. Jarnevich, Brendon Panke, Nick Young, Mark Renz, Jeffrey Morisette
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Fort Collins Science Center

A habitat overlap analysis derived from maxent for tamarisk and the south-western willow flycatcher

Biologic control of the introduced and invasive, woody plant tamarisk (Tamarix spp, saltcedar) in south-western states is controversial because it affects habitat of the federally endangered South-western Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus). These songbirds sometimes nest in tamarisk where floodplain-level invasion replaces native habitats. Biologic control, with the saltcedar leaf beet
Authors
Patricia York, Paul Evangelista, Sunil Kumar, James Graham, Curtis Flather, Thomas Stohlgren
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Fort Collins Science Center

Federated or cached searches: providing expected performance from multiple invasive species databases

Invasive species are a universal global problem, but the information to identify them, manage them, and prevent invasions is stored around the globe in a variety of formats. The Global Invasive Species Information Network is a consortium of organizations working toward providing seamless access to these disparate databases via the Internet. A distributed network of databases can be created using t
Authors
Jim Graham, Catherine S. Jarnevich, Annie Simpson, Gregory J. Newman, Thomas J. Stohlgren
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Science Synthesis, Analysis and Research Program, Science Analytics and Synthesis (SAS) Program, Fort Collins Science Center

Using maximum entropy modeling for optimal selection of sampling sites for monitoring networks

Environmental monitoring programs must efficiently describe state shifts. We propose using maximum entropy modeling to select dissimilar sampling sites to capture environmental variability at low cost, and demonstrate a specific application: sample site selection for the Central Plains domain (453,490 km2) of the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON). We relied on four environmental facto
Authors
Thomas J. Stohlgren, Sunil Kumar, David T. Barnett, Paul H. Evangelista

Habitat suitability of patch types: a case study of the Yosemite toad

Understanding patch variability is crucial in understanding the spatial population structure of wildlife species, especially for rare or threatened species. We used a well-tested maximum entropy species distribution model (Maxent) to map the Yosemite toad (Anaxyrus (= Bufo) canorus) in the Sierra Nevada mountains of California. Twenty-six environmental variables were included in the model represen
Authors
Christina T. Liang, Thomas J. Stohlgren

Ensemble habitat mapping of invasive plant species

Ensemble species distribution models combine the strengths of several species environmental matching models, while minimizing the weakness of any one model. Ensemble models may be particularly useful in risk analysis of recently arrived, harmful invasive species because species may not yet have spread to all suitable habitats, leaving species-environment relationships difficult to determine. We te
Authors
T.J. Stohlgren, P. Ma, S. Kumar, M. Rocca, J.T. Morisette, C. S. Jarnevich, N. Benson

Invasive species information networks: Collaboration at multiple scales for prevention, early detection, and rapid response to invasive alien species

Accurate analysis of present distributions and effective modeling of future distributions of invasive alien species (IAS) are both highly dependent on the availability and accessibility of occurrence data and natural history information about the species. Invasive alien species monitoring and detection networks (such as the Invasive Plant Atlas of New England and the Invasive Plant Atlas of the Mi
Authors
Annie Simpson, Catherine S. Jarnevich, John Madsen, Randy G. Westbrooks, Christine Fournier, Les Mehrhoff, Michael Browne, Jim Graham, Elizabeth A. Sellers
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Science Synthesis, Analysis and Research Program, Science Analytics and Synthesis (SAS) Program, Fort Collins Science Center

Non-native plant invasions of United States National parks

The United States National Park Service was created to protect and make accessible to the public the nation's most precious natural resources and cultural features for present and future generations. However, this heritage is threatened by the invasion of non-native plants, animals, and pathogens. To evaluate the scope of invasions, the USNPS has inventoried non-native plant species in the 216 par
Authors
J. A. Allen, C. S. Brown, T.J. Stohlgren