Modeling Disturbance and Ecosystem Change at Landscape Scales Active
Models can be used to investigate changes in ecosystems and disturbance regimes across large landscapes and over long periods of time, i.e., at spatial and temporal scales that are typically not possible or practical using field-based observational or experimental methods. These spatially explicit models can also be used to investigate complex relationships and interactions among various ecosystems processes (e.g., species dispersal, natural disturbance), land use, and climate change. Moreover, such models can also provide retrospective or historical insights into past disturbance regimes and vegetation characteristics.
We are using a spatially-explicit, stochastic, landscape simulation model (LANDIS-II) to project potential future changes in forest composition and fire regimes under different land use and climate change scenarios in southern boreal forests, Rocky Mountain forests, and Great Basin aspen woodlands. We have also begun using an ecological-niche modeling approach to investigate the role of climate and edaphic conditions in the distribution of ponderosa pine genotypes at regional scales. In addition to developing a better understanding of key ecological dynamics over time and space, our modeling research can help land managers estimate future natural community variability and distribution, identify key restoration and conservation opportunities, and better gauge future threats to ecological integrity and sustainable natural resources.
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Fire Ecology in Dynamic Ecosystems Team (FRESC)
Below are publications associated with this project.
Long term persistence of aspen in snowdrift-dependent ecosystems
Developing and optimizing shrub parameters representing sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems in the Northern Great Basin using the Ecosystem Demography (EDv2.2) model
Climate and disturbance influence self-sustaining stand dynamics of aspen (Populus tremuloides) near its range margin
Integrating anthropogenic factors into regional-scale species distribution models — A novel application in the imperiled sagebrush biome
Intraspecific niche models for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) suggest potential variability in population-level response to climate change
Lidar aboveground vegetation biomass estimates in shrublands: Prediction, uncertainties and application to coarser scales
Approaches to modeling landscape-scale drought-induced forest mortality
Fire modulates climate change response of simulated aspen distribution across topoclimatic gradients in a semi-arid montane landscape
Comparing modern and presettlement forest dynamics of a subboreal wilderness: Does spruce budworm enhance fire risk?
- Overview
Models can be used to investigate changes in ecosystems and disturbance regimes across large landscapes and over long periods of time, i.e., at spatial and temporal scales that are typically not possible or practical using field-based observational or experimental methods. These spatially explicit models can also be used to investigate complex relationships and interactions among various ecosystems processes (e.g., species dispersal, natural disturbance), land use, and climate change. Moreover, such models can also provide retrospective or historical insights into past disturbance regimes and vegetation characteristics.
We are using a spatially-explicit, stochastic, landscape simulation model (LANDIS-II) to project potential future changes in forest composition and fire regimes under different land use and climate change scenarios in southern boreal forests, Rocky Mountain forests, and Great Basin aspen woodlands. We have also begun using an ecological-niche modeling approach to investigate the role of climate and edaphic conditions in the distribution of ponderosa pine genotypes at regional scales. In addition to developing a better understanding of key ecological dynamics over time and space, our modeling research can help land managers estimate future natural community variability and distribution, identify key restoration and conservation opportunities, and better gauge future threats to ecological integrity and sustainable natural resources.
- Science
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Fire Ecology in Dynamic Ecosystems Team (FRESC)
Understanding how fire and other disturbances affect ecosystem health and resiliency is critically important for land managers and for society as a whole. - Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Long term persistence of aspen in snowdrift-dependent ecosystems
Quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) forests throughout the western United States have experienced significant mortality in recent decades, much of which has been influenced by climate variability, especially drought. In the western portion of its range, where most precipitation arrives during winter as snowfall and summers are dry, snowdrifts that persist into the growing season provide soil moistAuthorsAlec M Kretchun, Robert M Scheller, Douglas J. Shinneman, B Soderquist, Kaitlin C. Maguire, Timothy E Link, Eva K. StrandDeveloping and optimizing shrub parameters representing sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems in the Northern Great Basin using the Ecosystem Demography (EDv2.2) model
Ecosystem dynamic models are useful for understanding ecosystem characteristics over time and space because of their efficiency over direct field measurements and applicability to broad spatial extents. Their application, however, is challenging due to internal model uncertainties and complexities arising from distinct qualities of the ecosystems being analyzed. The sagebrush-steppe in western NorAuthorsKarun Pandit, Hamid Dasthi, Nancy Glenn, Alejandro Flores, Kaitlin C. Maguire, Douglas J. Shinneman, Gerald Flerchinger, Aaron FellowClimate and disturbance influence self-sustaining stand dynamics of aspen (Populus tremuloides) near its range margin
Species that are primarily seral may form stable (self-sustaining) communities under certain disturbance regimes or environmental conditions, yet such populations may also be particularly vulnerable to ecological change. Aspen (Populus spp.) are generally considered seral throughout the northern hemisphere, including P. tremuloides, the most widely distributed tree species in North America. RecentAuthorsDouglas J. Shinneman, Susan McIlroyIntegrating anthropogenic factors into regional-scale species distribution models — A novel application in the imperiled sagebrush biome
Species distribution models (SDM) that rely on regional-scale environmental variables will play a key role in forecasting species occurrence in the face of climate change. However, in the Anthropocene, a number of local-scale anthropogenic variables, including wildfire history, land-use change, invasive species, and ecological restoration practices can override regional-scale variables to drive paAuthorsJuan M. Requena-Mullor, Kaitlin C. Maguire, Douglas J. Shinneman, T. Trevor CaughlinIntraspecific niche models for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) suggest potential variability in population-level response to climate change
Unique responses to climate change can occur across intraspecific levels, resulting in individualistic adaptation or movement patterns among populations within a given species. Thus, the need to model potential responses among genetically distinct populations within a species is increasingly recognized. However, predictive models of future distributions are regularly fit at the species level, ofteAuthorsKaitlin C. Maguire, Douglas J. Shinneman, Kevin M. Potter, Valerie D. HipkinsLidar aboveground vegetation biomass estimates in shrublands: Prediction, uncertainties and application to coarser scales
Our study objectives were to model the aboveground biomass in a xeric shrub-steppe landscape with airborne light detection and ranging (Lidar) and explore the uncertainty associated with the models we created. We incorporated vegetation vertical structure information obtained from Lidar with ground-measured biomass data, allowing us to scale shrub biomass from small field sites (1 m subplots and 1AuthorsAihua Li, Shital Dhakal, Nancy F. Glenn, Luke P. Spaete, Douglas J. Shinneman, David S. Pilliod, Robert Arkle, Susan McIlroyApproaches to modeling landscape-scale drought-induced forest mortality
Drought stress is an important cause of tree mortality in forests, and drought-induced disturbance events are projected to become more common in the future due to climate change. Landscape Disturbance and Succession Models (LDSM) are becoming widely used to project climate change impacts on forests, including potential interactions with natural and anthropogenic disturbances, and to explore the eAuthorsEric J. Gustafson, Douglas J. ShinnemanFire modulates climate change response of simulated aspen distribution across topoclimatic gradients in a semi-arid montane landscape
Content Changing aspen distribution in response to climate change and fire is a major focus of biodiversity conservation, yet little is known about the potential response of aspen to these two driving forces along topoclimatic gradients. Objective This study is set to evaluate how aspen distribution might shift in response to different climate-fire scenarios in a semi-arid montane landscape, and qAuthorsJian Yang, Peter J. Weisberg, Douglas J. Shinneman, Thomas E. Dilts, Susan L. Earnst, Robert M SchellerComparing modern and presettlement forest dynamics of a subboreal wilderness: Does spruce budworm enhance fire risk?
Insect disturbance is often thought to increase fire risk through enhanced fuel loadings, particularly in coniferous forest ecosystems. Yet insect disturbances also affect successional pathways and landscape structure that interact with fire disturbances (and vice-versa) over longer time scales. We applied a landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) to evaluate the relative strength oAuthorsBrian R. Sturtevant, Brian R. Miranda, Douglas J. Shinneman, Eric J. Gustafson, Peter T. Wolter