Exploring Future Flora, Environments, and Climates Through Simulations (EFFECTS) Active
Three Sisters, Oregon
Old-growth forest on the west side of the Cascade Range
Eastern Oregon woodland, near Bend, Oregon
Climate changes can significantly affect species and ecosystems. Historical and paleoenvironmental data record species and ecosystem responses to past climate changes, but these records become sparse as one goes further back in time. Model simulations can be used fill the spatial and temporal gaps in observed records to improve our understanding of the potential magnitude, rate, and spatial expression of species and ecosystem responses to climate change. This research uses state-of-the-art climate simulations and numerical models to better understand both past (paleo and historical) and potential future climate change effects on species and ecosystems, with a focus on vegetation. Improving our understanding of how vegetation has responded to past climate changes can help us to identify the potential vulnerabilities of vegetation to projected future climate changes. The results of this research are used to inform conservation and natural resource management efforts.
The EFFECTS Project is a research activity of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center and receives funding from the USGS Climate Research and Development Program.
Species and Ecosystem Responses to Climate Change
Future climate changes may significantly affect species and ecosystems. Changes in climate can alter species distributions and affect a variety of ecosystem processes, ranging from carbon storage to wildfire regimes. Historical records can help us understand how species and ecosystems have responded to climate changes over the past few centuries, but these records cover relatively short time periods. Paleoenvironmental records, such as pollen in lake sediments, may extend further back in time (e.g., thousands of years) but these records are often spatially sparse. We are using numerical models to simulate vegetation responses to both past and potential future climate changes. Models are useful because they can simulate time periods when data are either limited (e.g., past time periods) or not available (e.g., future time periods). They also can be used to simulate the effects of climate change for regions that lack observed data. Model simulations allow us to test hypotheses about the potential mechanisms and climatic controls of past vegetation responses to climate changes. Determining how vegetation has responded to past climate change is important for understanding how vegetation may respond to potential future climate change.
We are using models to simulate vegetation changes during past periods of rapid climate change, such as the changes that occurred ~15,000-10,000 years ago in North America. Important vegetation changes during this time period included shifts in northern tree lines, the movement of temperate species at mid-latitudes to higher latitudes, and interactions between climate, vegetation, and wildfire occurrence. We compare the magnitude, rate, and spatial patterns of these past vegetation changes with simulated vegetation responses to potential future climate change. The results help to identify the main processes controlling vegetation responses to climate change and the species, ecosystems, and geographic regions that may be particularly sensitive to potential future climate changes.
Implications of Climate Change for Conservation and Natural Resource Management
Conservation and natural resource managers require information about how climate changes may affect the species and ecosystems they manage. This research simulates the potential effects of future climate changes on species and ecosystems of management concern. The results of this research aid conservation and natural resource managers in developing adaptive management responses to potential future climate changes.
Methods and Models
We use process-based vegetation and environmental models to simulate species and ecosystem responses to climate change over paleo (e.g., the last ~21,000 years) to projected future (e.g., through 2100 CE) time scales. As input data for our models, we use climate simulations from various sources, including simulations produced as part of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Vegetation is simulated using both equilibrium and dynamic vegetation models, including BIOME4, LPJ, and LPJ-GUESS. Modeling and analyses are done using a variety of programming and scripting languages, including Fortran90, C++, and NCL (NCAR Command Language). The model simulations and related analyses are run on high performance workstations with multiple processors (e.g., dual 18-core) and large amounts of memory (e.g., >150 GB). Model input and output data are stored on large disk arrays. Our research data sets are made available to the public via USGS data releases.
Below are publications associated with this project.
Projected future vegetation changes for the northwest United States and southwest Canada at a fine spatial resolution using a dynamic global vegetation model.
Early-Holocene warming in Beringia and its mediation by sea-level and vegetation changes
Comparing ecoregional classifications for natural areas management in the Klamath Region, USA
Atlas of relations between climatic parameters and distributions of important trees and shrubs in North America: Revisions for all taxa from the United States and Canada and new taxa from the western United States
U.S. Geological Survey Science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative: 2012 annual report
Forest ecosystems: Vegetation, disturbance, and economics
U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative: 2011 annual report
Executive summary: Climate change in the northwest: Implications for our landscapes, waters, and communities
Coasts: Complex changes affecting the Northwest's diverse shorelines
Atlas of relations between climatic parameters and distributions of important trees and shrubs in North America—Modern data for climatic estimation from vegetation inventories
The Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) Framework: A tool for incorporating climate change into natural resource management
Quantitative estimation of climatic parameters from vegetation data in North America by the mutual climatic range technique
- Overview
Climate changes can significantly affect species and ecosystems. Historical and paleoenvironmental data record species and ecosystem responses to past climate changes, but these records become sparse as one goes further back in time. Model simulations can be used fill the spatial and temporal gaps in observed records to improve our understanding of the potential magnitude, rate, and spatial expression of species and ecosystem responses to climate change. This research uses state-of-the-art climate simulations and numerical models to better understand both past (paleo and historical) and potential future climate change effects on species and ecosystems, with a focus on vegetation. Improving our understanding of how vegetation has responded to past climate changes can help us to identify the potential vulnerabilities of vegetation to projected future climate changes. The results of this research are used to inform conservation and natural resource management efforts.
The EFFECTS Project is a research activity of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center and receives funding from the USGS Climate Research and Development Program.
Species and Ecosystem Responses to Climate Change
Future climate changes may significantly affect species and ecosystems. Changes in climate can alter species distributions and affect a variety of ecosystem processes, ranging from carbon storage to wildfire regimes. Historical records can help us understand how species and ecosystems have responded to climate changes over the past few centuries, but these records cover relatively short time periods. Paleoenvironmental records, such as pollen in lake sediments, may extend further back in time (e.g., thousands of years) but these records are often spatially sparse. We are using numerical models to simulate vegetation responses to both past and potential future climate changes. Models are useful because they can simulate time periods when data are either limited (e.g., past time periods) or not available (e.g., future time periods). They also can be used to simulate the effects of climate change for regions that lack observed data. Model simulations allow us to test hypotheses about the potential mechanisms and climatic controls of past vegetation responses to climate changes. Determining how vegetation has responded to past climate change is important for understanding how vegetation may respond to potential future climate change.
We are using models to simulate vegetation changes during past periods of rapid climate change, such as the changes that occurred ~15,000-10,000 years ago in North America. Important vegetation changes during this time period included shifts in northern tree lines, the movement of temperate species at mid-latitudes to higher latitudes, and interactions between climate, vegetation, and wildfire occurrence. We compare the magnitude, rate, and spatial patterns of these past vegetation changes with simulated vegetation responses to potential future climate change. The results help to identify the main processes controlling vegetation responses to climate change and the species, ecosystems, and geographic regions that may be particularly sensitive to potential future climate changes.
Implications of Climate Change for Conservation and Natural Resource Management
Conservation and natural resource managers require information about how climate changes may affect the species and ecosystems they manage. This research simulates the potential effects of future climate changes on species and ecosystems of management concern. The results of this research aid conservation and natural resource managers in developing adaptive management responses to potential future climate changes.
Methods and Models
We use process-based vegetation and environmental models to simulate species and ecosystem responses to climate change over paleo (e.g., the last ~21,000 years) to projected future (e.g., through 2100 CE) time scales. As input data for our models, we use climate simulations from various sources, including simulations produced as part of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Vegetation is simulated using both equilibrium and dynamic vegetation models, including BIOME4, LPJ, and LPJ-GUESS. Modeling and analyses are done using a variety of programming and scripting languages, including Fortran90, C++, and NCL (NCAR Command Language). The model simulations and related analyses are run on high performance workstations with multiple processors (e.g., dual 18-core) and large amounts of memory (e.g., >150 GB). Model input and output data are stored on large disk arrays. Our research data sets are made available to the public via USGS data releases.
- Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Filter Total Items: 21Projected future vegetation changes for the northwest United States and southwest Canada at a fine spatial resolution using a dynamic global vegetation model.
Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, aAuthorsSarah Shafer, Patrick J. Bartlein, Elizabeth M. Gray, Richard T. PelltierEarly-Holocene warming in Beringia and its mediation by sea-level and vegetation changes
Arctic land-cover changes induced by recent global climate change (e.g., expansion of woody vegetation into tundra and effects of permafrost degradation) are expected to generate further feedbacks to the climate system. Past changes can be used to assess our understanding of feedback mechanisms through a combination of process modeling and paleo-observations. The subcontinental region of BeringiaAuthorsP. J. Bartlein, M. E. Edwards, Steven W. Hostetler, Sarah Shafer, P. M. Anderson, L. B Brubaker, A. V LozhkinComparing ecoregional classifications for natural areas management in the Klamath Region, USA
We compared three existing ecoregional classification schemes (Bailey, Omernik, and World Wildlife Fund) with two derived schemes (Omernik Revised and Climate Zones) to explore their effectiveness in explaining species distributions and to better understand natural resource geography in the Klamath Region, USA. We analyzed presence/absence data derived from digital distribution maps for trees, ampAuthorsDaniel A. Sarr, Andrew Duff, Eric C. Dinger, Sarah L. Shafer, Michael Wing, Nathaniel E. Seavy, John D. AlexanderAtlas of relations between climatic parameters and distributions of important trees and shrubs in North America: Revisions for all taxa from the United States and Canada and new taxa from the western United States
This is the seventh volume in an atlas series that explores the relations between the geographic distributions of woody plant species and climatic variables in North America. A 25-kilometer (km) equal-area grid of modern climatic and bioclimatic variables was constructed from weather data. The geographic distributions of selected tree and shrub species were digitized, and the presence or absence oAuthorsRobert S. Thompson, Katherine H. Anderson, Richard T. Pelltier, Laura E. Strickland, Sarah L. Shafer, Patrick J. Bartlein, Andrew K. McFaddenU.S. Geological Survey Science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative: 2012 annual report
Southwest Wyoming contains abundant energy resources, wildlife, habitat, open spaces, and outdoor recreational opportunities. Although energy exploration and development have been taking place in the region since the late 1800s, the pace of development for fossil fuels and renewable energy increased significantly in the early 2000s. This and the associated urban and exurban development are leadingAuthorsZachary H. Bowen, Cameron L. Aldridge, Patrick J. Anderson, Timothy J. Assal, Carleton R. Bern, Laura Biewick, Gregory K. Boughton, Natasha B. Carr, Anna D. Chalfoun, Geneva W. Chong, Melanie L. Clark, Bradford C. Fedy, Katharine Foster, Steven L. Garman, Steve Germaine, Matthew G. Hethcoat, Collin G. Homer, Matthew J. Kauffman, Douglas Keinath, Natalie Latysh, Daniel J. Manier, Robert R. McDougal, Cynthia P. Melcher, Kirk A. Miller, Jessica Montag, Christopher J. Potter, Spencer Schell, Sarah L. Shafer, David B. Smith, Michael J. Sweat, Anna B. WilsonForest ecosystems: Vegetation, disturbance, and economics
Forests cover about 47% of the Northwest (NW–Washington, Oregon, and Idaho) (Smith et al. 2009, fig. 5.1, table 5.1). The impacts of current and future climate change on NW forest ecosystems are a product of the sensitivities of ecosystem processes to climate and the degree to which humans depend on and interact with those systems. Forest ecosystem structure and function, particularly in relativelAuthorsJeremy S. Littell, Jeffrey A. Hicke, Sarah L. Shafer, Susan M. Capalbo, Laurie L. Houston, Patty GlickU.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative: 2011 annual report
This is the fourth report produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) to detail annual work activities. In FY2011, there were 37 ongoing, completed, or new projects conducted under the five major multi-disciplinary science and technical-assistance activities: (1) Baseline Synthesis, (2) Targeted Monitoring and Research, (3) Data and InformAuthorsZachary H. Bowen, Cameron L. Aldridge, Patrick J. Anderson, Timothy J. Assal, Laura Biewick, Steven W. Blecker, Gregory K. Boughton, Natasha B. Carr, Anna D. Chalfoun, Geneva W. Chong, Melanie L. Clark, Jay E. Diffendorfer, Bradley C. Fedy, Katharine Foster, Steven L. Garman, Stephanie Germaine, Matthew G. Hethcoat, JoAnn Holloway, Collin G. Homer, Matthew J. Kauffman, Douglas Keinath, Natalie Latysh, Daniel J. Manier, Robert R. McDougal, Cynthia P. Melcher, Kirk A. Miller, Jessica Montag, Edward M. Olexa, Christopher J. Potter, Spencer Schell, Sarah L. Shafer, David B. Smith, Lisa L. Stillings, Michael J. Sweat, Michele L. Tuttle, Anna B. WilsonExecutive summary: Climate change in the northwest: Implications for our landscapes, waters, and communities
Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities is aimed at assessing the state of knowledge about key climate impacts and consequences to various sectors and communities in the northwest United States. It draws on a wealth of peer-reviewed literature, earlier state-level assessment reports conducted for Washington (2009) and Oregon (2010), as well as a riAuthorsMeghan M. Dalton, Jeffrey Bethel, Susan M. Capalbo, J.E. Cuhaciyan, Sanford D. Eigenbrode, Patty Glick, Laurie L. Houston, Jeremy S. Littell, Kathy Lynn, Philip W. Mote, Rick R. Raymondi, W. Spencer Reeder, Sarah L. Shafer, Amy K. SnoverCoasts: Complex changes affecting the Northwest's diverse shorelines
No abstract available.AuthorsW. Spencer Reeder, Ruggiero, Sarah L. Shafer, Amy K. Snover, Laurie L. Houston, Patty Glick, Jan Newton, Susan M. CapalboAtlas of relations between climatic parameters and distributions of important trees and shrubs in North America—Modern data for climatic estimation from vegetation inventories
Vegetation inventories (plant taxa present in a vegetation assemblage at a given site) can be used to estimate climatic parameters based on the identification of the range of a given parameter where all taxa in an assemblage overlap ("Mutual Climatic Range"). For the reconstruction of past climates from fossil or subfossil plant assemblages, we assembled the data necessary for such analyses for 53AuthorsRobert S. Thompson, Katherine H. Anderson, Richard T. Pelltier, Laura E. Strickland, Sarah L. Shafer, Patrick J. BartleinThe Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) Framework: A tool for incorporating climate change into natural resource management
As natural resource management agencies and conservation organizations seek guidance on responding to climate change, myriad potential actions and strategies have been proposed for increasing the long-term viability of some attributes of natural systems. Managers need practical tools for selecting among these actions and strategies to develop a tailored management approach for specific targets atAuthorsMolly S. Cross, Erika S. Zavaleta, Dominique Bachelet, Marjorie L. Brooks, Carolyn A.F. Enquist, Erica Fleishman, Lisa J. Graumlich, Craig R. Groves, Lee Hannah, Lara J. Hansen, Gregory D. Hayward, Marni Koopman, Joshua J. Lawler, Jay Malcolm, John R. Nordgren, Brian Petersen, Erika Rowland, Daniel Scott, Sarah L. Shafer, M. Rebecca Shaw, Gary TaborQuantitative estimation of climatic parameters from vegetation data in North America by the mutual climatic range technique
The mutual climatic range (MCR) technique is perhaps the most widely used method for estimating past climatic parameters from fossil assemblages, largely because it can be conducted on a simple list of the taxa present in an assemblage. When applied to plant macrofossil data, this unweighted approach (MCRun) will frequently identify a large range for a given climatic parameter where the species inAuthorsKatherine H. Anderson, Patrick J. Bartlein, Laura E. Strickland, Richard T. Pelltier, Robert S. Thompson, Sarah L. Shafer