Terrestrial Rates and Amplitudes of Changes in Ecoclimate Systems (TRACES) Completed
Vegetation changes caused by climatic variations and/or land use may have large impacts on forests, agriculture, rangelands, natural ecosystems, and endangered species. Climate modeling studies indicate that vegetation cover, in turn, has a strong influence on regional climates, and this must be better understood before models can estimate future environmental conditions. To address these issues, this project investigates vegetational response to climatic change, and vegetation-land surface impacts on climate change. The project involves calibration of the modern relations between the range limits of plant species and climatic variables, relations that are then used: 1) to estimate past climatic fluctuations from paleobotanical data for a number of time periods within the late Quaternary; 2) to 'validate' climate model simulations of past climates; 3) to explore the potential influences of land cover changes on climate change; and 4) to estimate the potential future ranges of plant species under a number of future climate scenarios. Project methodologies and data are also part of the national global change assessment of potential impacts of future climate changes.
Develop techniques and data sets to elucidate the modern relations among plant species distributions and climatic parameters in North America.
We developed a 25-km equal-area grid for modern climate for North America and compared the distributions of approximately 400 important plant species with these data (USGS Prof. Paper 1650). We also developed an analogue-based method of estimating past climate from these data and paleobotanical assemblages. This effort continues as we add additional species to the data set and as we devise new methods of portraying and transmitting the results to the scientific community.
Estimate past climatic conditions from paleobotanical data, based on the modern climate-vegetation relations identified using the methods described above.
We have worked with the NOAA paleoclimatology program and the University of Colorado to establish a packrat midden database and to augment the North American Pollen Database with pollen data from western North America. We have also taken a leading role in an international effort to document changes in biomes through the late Quaternary in North America. From these efforts we are preparing synoptic-scale reconstructions and regional lapse rate reconstructions for (initially) the Last Glacial Maximum at 21ka and the mid-Holocene at 6 ka. We will compare the results of different approaches to reconstructing climate based on both species-level and biome-level data, as well as implementing methods being developed by European colleagues.
Explore numerical model simulations of past climates by comparing simulated and observed past plant distributions.
The ability of climate models to simulate climates different from that of the present-day can be evaluated by comparing features of simulated past climates with geological data. We are using the relations identified from modeling using the gridded data described above to simulate the past ranges of selected plant species (based on numerical climate model simulations) for key past time intervals and will compare these with observed paleobotanical data. The results provide insights into both the direction and amplitude of errors in the model climate simulations, and are critical for modeling future climatic conditions.
Investigate the impacts of vegetation and other land-cover changes on climate.
Over the past 15 years climate modelers have become increasingly aware that changes in the land surface (as well as in the ocean) can strongly influence the direction and amplitude of climate changes. Project members will be develop landscape reconstructions for North America for (initially) the Last Glacial Maximum and 6 ka. These reconstructions will be used as boundary conditions for a series of numerical model simulations that will iteratively explore the role of land surface and ocean feedbacks in climate change.
Estimate potential changes in the distributions of plant species and biomes under a range of future climate scenarios.
Our initial approach was to use the modern climate/land surface relations with a selected numerical climate model simulation of a 2xCO2 climate to explore the potential impacts of future climate change on vegetation and hydrology in the western United States (USGS Circular 1153). As part of the national assessment of impacts of climate change, we are expanding this approach to include a range of simulations by different climate modeling groups, as well as to use information from the BIOME6000 effort to incorporate the effects of higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide on plant physiology and water utilization.
Below are publications associated with this project.
Atlas of relations between climatic parameters and distributions of important trees and shrubs in North America - Alaska species and ecoregions
Acoustic stratigraphy of Bear Lake, Utah-Idaho: late Quaternary sedimentation patterns in a simple half-graben
Age model for a continuous, ca 250-ka Quaternary lacustrine record from Bear Lake, Utah-Idaho
Unusual Holocene and late Pleistocene carbonate sedimentation in Bear Lake, Utah and Idaho, USA
Radiocarbon dating of cores collected from Bear Lake, Utah and Idaho
Magnetic properties of sediments in cores BL96-1, -2, and -3 from Bear Lake, Utah and Idaho
Magnetic mineralogy of sediments in Bear Lake and its watershed, Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming: Support for paleoenvironmental and paleomagnetic interpretations
Topographic, bioclimatic, and vegetation characteristics of three ecoregion classification systems in North America: Comparisons along continent-wide transects
The role of climate and vegetation change in shaping past and future fire regimes in the northwestern US and the implications for ecosystem management
USGS/NOAA North American packrat midden database; data dictionary
Atlas of relations between climatic parameters and distributions of important trees and shrubs in North America; additional conifers, hardwoods, and monocots
Biomes of western North America at 18,000, 6000 and 0 14C yr BP reconstructed from pollen and packrat midden data
- Overview
Vegetation changes caused by climatic variations and/or land use may have large impacts on forests, agriculture, rangelands, natural ecosystems, and endangered species. Climate modeling studies indicate that vegetation cover, in turn, has a strong influence on regional climates, and this must be better understood before models can estimate future environmental conditions. To address these issues, this project investigates vegetational response to climatic change, and vegetation-land surface impacts on climate change. The project involves calibration of the modern relations between the range limits of plant species and climatic variables, relations that are then used: 1) to estimate past climatic fluctuations from paleobotanical data for a number of time periods within the late Quaternary; 2) to 'validate' climate model simulations of past climates; 3) to explore the potential influences of land cover changes on climate change; and 4) to estimate the potential future ranges of plant species under a number of future climate scenarios. Project methodologies and data are also part of the national global change assessment of potential impacts of future climate changes.
Develop techniques and data sets to elucidate the modern relations among plant species distributions and climatic parameters in North America.
We developed a 25-km equal-area grid for modern climate for North America and compared the distributions of approximately 400 important plant species with these data (USGS Prof. Paper 1650). We also developed an analogue-based method of estimating past climate from these data and paleobotanical assemblages. This effort continues as we add additional species to the data set and as we devise new methods of portraying and transmitting the results to the scientific community.
Estimate past climatic conditions from paleobotanical data, based on the modern climate-vegetation relations identified using the methods described above.
We have worked with the NOAA paleoclimatology program and the University of Colorado to establish a packrat midden database and to augment the North American Pollen Database with pollen data from western North America. We have also taken a leading role in an international effort to document changes in biomes through the late Quaternary in North America. From these efforts we are preparing synoptic-scale reconstructions and regional lapse rate reconstructions for (initially) the Last Glacial Maximum at 21ka and the mid-Holocene at 6 ka. We will compare the results of different approaches to reconstructing climate based on both species-level and biome-level data, as well as implementing methods being developed by European colleagues.
Explore numerical model simulations of past climates by comparing simulated and observed past plant distributions.
The ability of climate models to simulate climates different from that of the present-day can be evaluated by comparing features of simulated past climates with geological data. We are using the relations identified from modeling using the gridded data described above to simulate the past ranges of selected plant species (based on numerical climate model simulations) for key past time intervals and will compare these with observed paleobotanical data. The results provide insights into both the direction and amplitude of errors in the model climate simulations, and are critical for modeling future climatic conditions.
Investigate the impacts of vegetation and other land-cover changes on climate.
Over the past 15 years climate modelers have become increasingly aware that changes in the land surface (as well as in the ocean) can strongly influence the direction and amplitude of climate changes. Project members will be develop landscape reconstructions for North America for (initially) the Last Glacial Maximum and 6 ka. These reconstructions will be used as boundary conditions for a series of numerical model simulations that will iteratively explore the role of land surface and ocean feedbacks in climate change.
Estimate potential changes in the distributions of plant species and biomes under a range of future climate scenarios.
Our initial approach was to use the modern climate/land surface relations with a selected numerical climate model simulation of a 2xCO2 climate to explore the potential impacts of future climate change on vegetation and hydrology in the western United States (USGS Circular 1153). As part of the national assessment of impacts of climate change, we are expanding this approach to include a range of simulations by different climate modeling groups, as well as to use information from the BIOME6000 effort to incorporate the effects of higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide on plant physiology and water utilization.
- Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Filter Total Items: 39Atlas of relations between climatic parameters and distributions of important trees and shrubs in North America - Alaska species and ecoregions
Climate is the primary factor in controlling the continental-scale distribution of plant species, although the relations between climatic parameters and species' ranges is only now beginning to be quantified. Preceding volumes of this atlas explored the continental-scale relations between climatic parameters and the distributions of woody plant species across all of the continent of North America.AuthorsRobert S. Thompson, Katherine H. Anderson, Laura E. Strickland, Sarah L. Shafer, Richard T. Pelltier, Patrick J. BartleinAcoustic stratigraphy of Bear Lake, Utah-Idaho: late Quaternary sedimentation patterns in a simple half-graben
A 277-km network of high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles, supplemented with a sidescan-sonar mosaic of the lake floor, was collected in Bear Lake, Utah–Idaho, in order to explore the sedimentary framework of the lake's paleoclimate record. The acoustic stratigraphy is tied to a 120 m deep, continuously cored drill hole in the lake. Based on the age model for the drill core, the oldest contiAuthorsSteven M. ColmanAge model for a continuous, ca 250-ka Quaternary lacustrine record from Bear Lake, Utah-Idaho
The Quaternary sediments sampled by continuous 120-m-long drill cores from Bear Lake (Utah-Idaho) comprise one of the longest lacustrine sequences recovered from an extant lake. The cores serve as a good case study for the construction of an age model for sequences that extend beyond the range of radiocarbon dating. From a variety of potential age indicators, we selected a combination of radiocarbAuthorsSteven M. Colman, D. S. Kaufman, Jordon Bright, C. Heil, J.W. King, W.E. Dean, J. G. Rosenbaum, R. M. Forester, J. L. Bischoff, Marie Perkins, J. P. McGeehinUnusual Holocene and late Pleistocene carbonate sedimentation in Bear Lake, Utah and Idaho, USA
Bear Lake (Utah-Idaho, USA) has been producing large quantities of carbonate minerals of varying mineralogy for the past 17,000 years. The history of sedimentation in Bear Lake is documented through the study of isotopic ratios of oxygen, carbon, and strontium, percent organic carbon, percent CaCO3, X-ray diffraction mineralogy, HCl-leach inorganic geochemistry, and magnetic properties on samplesAuthorsW. Dean, J. Rosenbaum, G. Skipp, S. Colman, R. Forester, A. Liu, K. Simmons, J. BischoffRadiocarbon dating of cores collected from Bear Lake, Utah and Idaho
No abstract available.AuthorsSteven M. Colman, Darrell S. Kaufman, Joseph G. Rosenbaum, John P. McGeehinMagnetic properties of sediments in cores BL96-1, -2, and -3 from Bear Lake, Utah and Idaho
No abstract available.AuthorsJoseph G. RosenbaumMagnetic mineralogy of sediments in Bear Lake and its watershed, Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming: Support for paleoenvironmental and paleomagnetic interpretations
No abstract available.AuthorsRichard L. Reynolds, Joseph G. RosenbaumTopographic, bioclimatic, and vegetation characteristics of three ecoregion classification systems in North America: Comparisons along continent-wide transects
Ecoregion classification systems are increasingly used for policy and management decisions, particularly among conservation and natural resource managers. A number of ecoregion classification systems are currently available, with each system defining ecoregions using different classification methods and different types of data. As a result, each classification system describes a unique set of ecorAuthorsR.S. Thompson, S.L. Shafer, K. H. Anderson, L.E. Strickland, R.T. Pelltier, P. J. Bartlein, M.W. KerwinThe role of climate and vegetation change in shaping past and future fire regimes in the northwestern US and the implications for ecosystem management
Fire is an important part of the disturbance regimes of northwestern US forests and its role in maintaining and altering forest vegetation is evident in the paleoecological record of the region. Long-term reconstructions of Holocene fire regimes, provided by the analysis of charcoal, pollen, and other fire proxies in a network of lake records, indicate that the Pacific Northwest and summer-dry regAuthorsC. Whitlock, S.L. Shafer, J. MarlonUSGS/NOAA North American packrat midden database; data dictionary
No abstract available.AuthorsLaura E. Strickland, Robert S. Thompson, Katherine H. AndersonAtlas of relations between climatic parameters and distributions of important trees and shrubs in North America; additional conifers, hardwoods, and monocots
This volume explores the continental-scale relations between climate and the geographic ranges of woody plant species in North America. A 25-km equal-area grid of modern climatic and bioclimatic parameters for North America was constructed from instrumental weather records. The geographic distributions of selected tree and shrub species were digitized, and the presence or absence of each species wAuthorsRobert S. Thompson, Katherine H. Anderson, Patrick J. Bartlein, Sharon A. SmithBiomes of western North America at 18,000, 6000 and 0 14C yr BP reconstructed from pollen and packrat midden data
A new compilation of pollen and packrat midden data from western North America provides a refined reconstruction of the composition and distribution of biomes in western North America for today and for 6000 and 18,000 radiocarbon years before present (14C yr BP). Modern biomes in western North America are adequately portrayed by pollen assemblages from lakes and bogs. Forest biomes in western NortAuthorsR.S. Thompson, K. H. Anderson