The 2012 Little Bear Fire burned 44,000 acres in the upper Rio Hondo Basin in south-central New Mexico. Landscape in the Basin ranges from mixed conifer forests at higher elevations (12,000 ft) to desert shrubland at lower (5,200 ft) elevations. Burned areas are at risk of substantial post-wildfire erosion and flash floods. USGS post-wildfire analysis estimated 70% of the burned area had a high probability of debris flow. USGS scientists have developed the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to simulate hydrologic responses to changes in climate, vegetation, soil, and management. This hydrologic model could be used to help us understand how watersheds respond to fire.