Integrating climate change scenario planning into National Park Service resource management Active
Resource managers are tasked with managing complex systems with inherent uncertainty around how those systems might change with time and respond to management actions in a changing climate. Scenario planning—often implemented as a qualitative, participatory exercise for exploring multiple possible futures—is a valuable tool for addressing uncertainty. At the same time, quantitative information on projected climate changes and their impacts is rapidly growing and evolving, but this information is often not at a scale or in a form that resource managers can use. This project piloted a process for combining qualitative scenario planning and quantitative modeling in a way that would create manager-usable information, in large part by emphasizing the co-production of this information by scientists and managers. Building on this success, we developed a process to incorporate climate-change scenario planning into Resource Stewardship Strategies (RSSs), a planning tool developed and used by the National Park Service across the nation.The process was used in RSSs developed for Devils Tower National Monument in Wyoming and Wind Cave National Park in South Dakota.
Below are publications associated with this project.
Implications of climate scenarios for Badlands National Park resource management
Multiple methods for multiple futures: Integrating qualitative scenario planning and quantitative simulation modeling for natural resource decision making
Co-producing simulation models to inform resource management: a case study from southwest South Dakota
Resource management and operations in central North Dakota: Climate change scenario planning workshop summary November 12-13, 2015, Bismarck, ND
Resource management and operations in southwest South Dakota: Climate change scenario planning workshop summary January 20-21, 2016, Rapid City, SD
- Overview
Resource managers are tasked with managing complex systems with inherent uncertainty around how those systems might change with time and respond to management actions in a changing climate. Scenario planning—often implemented as a qualitative, participatory exercise for exploring multiple possible futures—is a valuable tool for addressing uncertainty. At the same time, quantitative information on projected climate changes and their impacts is rapidly growing and evolving, but this information is often not at a scale or in a form that resource managers can use. This project piloted a process for combining qualitative scenario planning and quantitative modeling in a way that would create manager-usable information, in large part by emphasizing the co-production of this information by scientists and managers. Building on this success, we developed a process to incorporate climate-change scenario planning into Resource Stewardship Strategies (RSSs), a planning tool developed and used by the National Park Service across the nation.The process was used in RSSs developed for Devils Tower National Monument in Wyoming and Wind Cave National Park in South Dakota.
- Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Implications of climate scenarios for Badlands National Park resource management
Badlands National Park (BADL) hosts a myriad of natural and cultural resources, including bison and black-footed ferrets, the mixed grass prairie they live in, 37-75 million-year-old fossils, and historic buildings, trails, and roads. All are sensitive to climate, but anticipating precisely how each will be affected by climate change is difficult. In the face of this challenge, park resource managAuthorsBrian W. Miller, Amy Symstad, Gregor SchuurmanMultiple methods for multiple futures: Integrating qualitative scenario planning and quantitative simulation modeling for natural resource decision making
Scenario planning helps managers incorporate climate change into their natural resource decision making through a structured “what-if” process of identifying key uncertainties and potential impacts and responses. Although qualitative scenarios, in which ecosystem responses to climate change are derived via expert opinion, often suffice for managers to begin addressing climate change in their plannAuthorsAmy J. Symstad, Nicholas A. Fisichelli, Brian W. Miller, Erika Rowland, Gregor W. SchuurmanCo-producing simulation models to inform resource management: a case study from southwest South Dakota
Simulation models can represent complexities of the real world and serve as virtual laboratories for asking “what if…?” questions about how systems might respond to different scenarios. However, simulation models have limited relevance to real-world applications when designed without input from people who could use the simulated scenarios to inform their decisions. Here, we report on a state-and-tAuthorsBrian W. Miller, Amy J. Symstad, Leonardo Frid, Nicholas A. Fisichelli, Gregor W. SchuurmanResource management and operations in central North Dakota: Climate change scenario planning workshop summary November 12-13, 2015, Bismarck, ND
The Scaling Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains through Regional Climate Summaries and Local Qualitative-Quantitative Scenario Planning Workshops project synthesizes climate data into 3-5 distinct but plausible climate summaries for the northern Great Plains region; crafts quantitative summaries of these climate futures for two focal areas; and applies these local summaries by dAuthorsNicholas A. Fisichelli, Gregor Schuurman, Amy J. Symstad, Andrea Ray, Jonathan M. Friedman, Brian Miller, Erika RowlandResource management and operations in southwest South Dakota: Climate change scenario planning workshop summary January 20-21, 2016, Rapid City, SD
The Scaling Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains through Regional Climate Summaries and Local Qualitative-Quantitative Scenario Planning Workshops project synthesizes climate data into 3-5 distinct but plausible climate summaries for the northern Great Plains region; crafts quantitative summaries of these climate futures for two focal areas; and applies these local summaries by dAuthorsNicholas A. Fisichelli, Gregor W. Schuurman, Amy J. Symstad, Andrea Ray, Brian Miller, Molly Cross, Erika Rowland