The Impact of Sea-Level Rise and Climate Change on Pacific Ocean Atolls Completed
Providing basic understanding and specific information on storm-wave inundation of atoll islands that house Department of Defense installations, and assessing the resulting impact of sea-level rise and storm-wave inundation on infrastructure and freshwater availability under a variety of sea-level rise and climatic scenarios.
Roi-Namur Island on Kwajalein Atoll serves as our test case
Visit the research overview web site for more information.
The Problem
Many U.S. Pacific islands are atolls fringed with coral reefs and have maximum elevations of 3–5 meters, with mean elevations of 1–2 meters. Sea level in the western Pacific Ocean has been increasing at a rate 2–3 times the global average, resulting in almost 0.3 meters of net rise since 1990. The 2012 US National Climate Assessment provided global sea level rise scenarios that ranged from 0.2 to 2.0 meters by 2100. Regional scenarios are needed. A high surf event in December 2008 overwashed numerous atolls in Micronesia, ruining freshwater supplies and destroying agriculture on approximately 60% of the inhabited islands. Sea-level rise will exacerbate the hazards posed by climate change (storms, waves, temperatures, precipitation, etc.) to infrastructure, freshwater supplies, agriculture, and habitats for threatened and endangered species on U.S. and U.S.-affiliated atoll islands.
Project Objectives
- Provide basic understanding and specific information on storm-wave-induced overwash and inundation of atoll islands that house Department of Defense (DoD) installations.
- Assess the resulting impact of sea-level rise and storm-wave inundation on infrastructure and freshwater availability under a variety of sea-level rise and climatic scenarios.
- Use Roi-Namur Island (Reagan Test Site–U.S. Army Kwajalein Atoll) on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (U.S. Associated Pacific Islands) as a test case based on historical information, sea-level rise predictions, and global climate model (GCM) output.
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Coastal Climate Impacts
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Below are multimedia items associated with this project.
Below are publications associated with this project.
Changes to extreme wave climates of islands within the Western Tropical Pacific throughout the 21st century under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, with implications for island vulnerability and sustainability
Observations of wave transformation over a fringing coral reef and the importance of low-frequency waves and offshore water levels to runup, overwash, and coastal flooding
Many atolls may be uninhabitable within decades due to climate change
The influence of coral reefs and climate change on wave-driven flooding of tropical coastlines
Will the effects of sea-level rise create ecological traps for Pacific Island seabirds?
Modeled changes in extreme wave climates of the tropical Pacific over the 21st century: Implications for U.S. and U.S.-Affiliated atoll islands
Future wave and wind projections for United States and United-States-affiliated Pacific Islands
Forecasting the impact of storm waves and sea-level rise on Midway Atoll and Laysan Island within the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument—a comparison of passive versus dynamic inundation models
Below are news stories associated with this project.
- Overview
Providing basic understanding and specific information on storm-wave inundation of atoll islands that house Department of Defense installations, and assessing the resulting impact of sea-level rise and storm-wave inundation on infrastructure and freshwater availability under a variety of sea-level rise and climatic scenarios.
Roi-Namur Island on Kwajalein Atoll serves as our test case
Visit the research overview web site for more information.
The Problem
Many U.S. Pacific islands are atolls fringed with coral reefs and have maximum elevations of 3–5 meters, with mean elevations of 1–2 meters. Sea level in the western Pacific Ocean has been increasing at a rate 2–3 times the global average, resulting in almost 0.3 meters of net rise since 1990. The 2012 US National Climate Assessment provided global sea level rise scenarios that ranged from 0.2 to 2.0 meters by 2100. Regional scenarios are needed. A high surf event in December 2008 overwashed numerous atolls in Micronesia, ruining freshwater supplies and destroying agriculture on approximately 60% of the inhabited islands. Sea-level rise will exacerbate the hazards posed by climate change (storms, waves, temperatures, precipitation, etc.) to infrastructure, freshwater supplies, agriculture, and habitats for threatened and endangered species on U.S. and U.S.-affiliated atoll islands.
Project Objectives
- Provide basic understanding and specific information on storm-wave-induced overwash and inundation of atoll islands that house Department of Defense (DoD) installations.
- Assess the resulting impact of sea-level rise and storm-wave inundation on infrastructure and freshwater availability under a variety of sea-level rise and climatic scenarios.
- Use Roi-Namur Island (Reagan Test Site–U.S. Army Kwajalein Atoll) on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (U.S. Associated Pacific Islands) as a test case based on historical information, sea-level rise predictions, and global climate model (GCM) output.
- Science
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Coastal Climate Impacts
The impacts of climate change and sea-level rise around the Pacific and Arctic Oceans can vary tremendously. Thus far the vast majority of national and international impact assessments and models of coastal climate change have focused on low-relief coastlines that are not near seismically active zones. Furthermore, the degree to which extreme waves and wind will add further stress to coastal... - Data
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
- Multimedia
Below are multimedia items associated with this project.
- Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Filter Total Items: 32Changes to extreme wave climates of islands within the Western Tropical Pacific throughout the 21st century under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, with implications for island vulnerability and sustainability
Waves are the dominant influence on coastal morphology and ecosystem structure of tropical Pacific islands. Wave heights, periods, and directions for the 21st century were projected using near-surface wind fields from four atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate models (GCM) under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. GCM-derived wind fields forced the global WAVEWATCH-III waveAuthorsJames B. Shope, Curt D. Storlazzi, Li H. Erikson, Christie HegermillerObservations of wave transformation over a fringing coral reef and the importance of low-frequency waves and offshore water levels to runup, overwash, and coastal flooding
Many low-lying tropical islands are susceptible to sea level rise and often subjected to overwash and flooding during large wave events. To quantify wave dynamics and wave-driven water levels on fringing coral reefs, a 5 month deployment of wave gauges and a current meter was conducted across two shore-normal transects on Roi-Namur Island in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. These observationsAuthorsOlivia Cheriton, Curt D. Storlazzi, Kurt J. RosenbergerMany atolls may be uninhabitable within decades due to climate change
Observations show global sea level is rising due to climate change, with the highest rates in the tropical Pacific Ocean where many of the world’s low-lying atolls are located. Sea-level rise is particularly critical for low-lying carbonate reef-lined atoll islands; these islands have limited land and water available for human habitation, water and food sources, and ecosystems that are vulnerableAuthorsCurt D. Storlazzi, Edwin P.L. Elias, Paul BerkowitzThe influence of coral reefs and climate change on wave-driven flooding of tropical coastlines
A numerical model, XBeach, calibrated and validated on field data collected at Roi-Namur Island on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of Marshall Islands, was used to examine the effects of different coral reef characteristics on potential coastal hazards caused by wave-driven flooding and how these effects may be altered by projected climate change. The results presented herein suggest that coasts fAuthorsEllen Quataert, Curt D. Storlazzi, Arnold van Rooijen, Ap van Dongeren, Olivia CheritonWill the effects of sea-level rise create ecological traps for Pacific Island seabirds?
More than 18 million seabirds nest on 58 Pacific islands protected within vast U.S. Marine National Monuments (1.9 million km2). However, most of these seabird colonies are on low-elevation islands and sea-level rise (SLR) and accompanying high-water perturbations are predicted to escalate with climate change. To understand how SLR may impact protected islands and insular biodiversity, we modeledAuthorsMichelle H. Reynolds, Karen Courtot, Paul Berkowitz, Curt D. Storlazzi, Janet Moore, Elizabeth FlintModeled changes in extreme wave climates of the tropical Pacific over the 21st century: Implications for U.S. and U.S.-Affiliated atoll islands
Wave heights, periods, and directions were forecast for 2081–2100 using output from four coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate models for representative concentration pathway scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Global climate model wind fields were used to drive the global WAVEWATCH-III wave model to generate hourly time-series of bulk wave parameters for 25 islands in the mid to western tropical PacifAuthorsJ.B. Shope, Curt D. Storlazzi, Li H. Erikson, C.A. HegermillerFuture wave and wind projections for United States and United-States-affiliated Pacific Islands
Changes in future wave climates in the tropical Pacific Ocean from global climate change are not well understood. Spatially and temporally varying waves dominate coastal morphology and ecosystem structure of the islands throughout the tropical Pacific. Waves also impact coastal infrastructure, natural and cultural resources, and coastal-related economic activities of the islands. Wave heights, perAuthorsCurt D. Storlazzi, James B. Shope, Li H. Erikson, Christine A. Hegermiller, Patrick L. BarnardForecasting the impact of storm waves and sea-level rise on Midway Atoll and Laysan Island within the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument—a comparison of passive versus dynamic inundation models
Two inundation events in 2011 underscored the potential for elevated water levels to damage infrastructure and affect terrestrial ecosystems on the low-lying Northwestern Hawaiian Islands in the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument. The goal of this study was to compare passive "bathtub" inundation models based on geographic information systems (GIS) to those that include dynamic water levelAuthorsCurt D. Storlazzi, Paul Berkowitz, Michelle H. Reynolds, Joshua B. Logan - News
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