Coastal Climate Impacts Active
The impacts of climate change and sea-level rise around the Pacific and Arctic Oceans can vary tremendously. Thus far the vast majority of national and international impact assessments and models of coastal climate change have focused on low-relief coastlines that are not near seismically active zones. Furthermore, the degree to which extreme waves and wind will add further stress to coastal systems has also been largely disregarded. By working to refine this area of research, USGS aims to help coastal managers and inhabitants understand how their coasts will change.
Why research on climate change and sea-level rise is important
Climate change and sea-level rise are already impacting coastal communities in many locations worldwide, including the U.S. west coast, Alaska, Hawaiʻi, and U.S. affiliated Pacific islands.
In the western tropical Pacific, elevated rates of sea-level rise (up to 1 centimeter/year) affect coastal infrastructure, freshwater resources, and terrestrial and marine ecosystems on U.S.-affiliated islands like the Marshall Islands, American Samoa, and the Northern Marianas. Alterations in storm patterns, contamination of freshwater aquifers by saltwater flooding, and permanent inundation by rising sea level—all fueled by climate change—threaten long-term human habitation on many of these atolls. Efforts to relocate coastal inhabitants from some low-lying Pacific Islands are already underway.
Along Arctic shores of Alaska, shoreline erosion and habitat loss are accelerating due to increasing permafrost thaw and sea ice forming much later in the year, leaving the coast more susceptible to waves and storm surge. Alaskan government agencies and land-use planners are relocating some Native Alaskan villages and critical airstrips farther inland from eroding shores, such as Kivalina on the northwestern coast.
The U.S. west coast is vulnerable as well. In California alone, roughly half a million people and $100 billion worth of coastal property are at risk during the next century. In highly developed coastal areas such as San Francisco Bay and Puget Sound, hundreds of millions of dollars are being spent on restoration of nearshore ecosystems, which protect shorelines from erosion by waves and provide habitat for socially and economically important species. But resource managers remain uncertain whether outcomes of these efforts will be resilient to projected sea-level rise.
Because the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise around the Pacific and Arctic vary considerably, no single solution can mitigate the impacts. Coastal communities, along with federal, state, and local managers, need better scientific information and tools to plan for the particular threats they may face from saltwater flooding, shoreline erosion, and habitat loss.
Historically, simple “bathtub” models of future sea levels have assumed a static coast—one that is neither subsiding nor rising, neither retreating nor growing seaward—and they calculate future flooding based on just sea-level rise and tides, ignoring the impacts of storms. Those models cannot adequately account for the diverse influences that affect most coasts, including sediment input, how the coast is shaped, and “forcings”—atmospheric and oceanographic conditions that force the environment to change (for example, wind and circulation patterns, wave heights and directions).
Thus, in tectonically active coastlines like the U.S. west coast, USGS seeks to develop models that incorporate sea-level rise projections combined with storm impacts, as well as potential changes in wave heights and storm patterns associated with climate change.
What the USGS is doing
We are developing rigorous research tools to understand the physical impacts that climate change and sea-level rise will have on dynamic geologic settings along Pacific and Arctic coasts. This research covers an enormous range of coastal settings: from permafrost coasts, to the Puget Sound estuary, the California coast, and low-lying Pacific atolls.
By understanding the effects of extreme storms, including coastal flooding, changes in the shoreline, and movement of sediment, we can develop better models for understanding long-term vulnerability of sea-level rise in various coastal settings, and help coastal managers and businesses plan for a changing climate.
Our areas of study include the following, with brief descriptions of each.
Climate impacts to Arctic coasts
The Arctic region is warming faster than anywhere else in the nation. Understanding the rates and causes of coastal change in Alaska is needed to identify and mitigate hazards that might affect people and animals that call Alaska home.
Low-lying areas of tropical Pacific islands
Sea level is rising faster than projected in the western Pacific, so understanding how wave-driven coastal flooding will affect inhabited, low-lying islands—most notably, the familiar ring-shaped atolls—as well as the low-elevation areas of high islands in the Pacific Ocean, is critical for decision-makers in protecting infrastructure or relocating resources and people.
Dynamic coastlines along the western U.S.
The west coast of the United States is extremely complex and changeable because of tectonic activity, mountain building, and land subsidence. These active environments pose a major challenge for accurately assessing climate change impacts, since models were historically developed for more passive sandy coasts.
Estuaries and large river deltas in the Pacific Northwest
Essential habitat for wild salmon and other wildlife borders river deltas and estuaries in the Pacific Northwest. These estuaries also support industry, agriculture, and a large human population that’s expected to double by the year 2060, but each could suffer from more severe river floods, higher sea level, and storm surges caused by climate change.
Climate impacts on Monterey Bay area beaches
For a beach town like Santa Cruz, preserving beaches by mitigating coastal erosion is vital. USGS scientists conduct regular surveys of the beaches in the Monterey Bay region to better understand the short- and long-term impacts of climate change, El Niño years, and sea-level rise on a populated and vulnerable coastline.
Collaborators
Collaborators include USGS Coastal and Marine Geology Program colleagues in Woods Hole, Massachusetts, and St. Petersburg, Florida, and researchers with the USGS Western Ecological Research Center on Mare Island, California. Academic collaborators include those from University of Hawaiʻi, Oregon State University, University of Alaska, University of California, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, and University of Cantabria (Spain). Also involved are colleagues and federal partners from such agencies as the U.S. National Park Service, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Department of Defense, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Below are all of the research topics associated with this project.
Below are data releases associated with this project.
Below are multimedia items associated with this project.
Below are publications associated with this project.
A holistic modelling approach to project the evolution of inlet-interrupted coastlines over the 21st century
Impacts of sea-level rise on the tidal reach of California coastal rivers using the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)
Hydro-morphological characterization of coral reefs for wave runup prediction
Steps to develop early warning systems and future scenarios of wave-driven flooding along coral reef-lined coasts
The major coral reefs of Maui Nui, Hawai‘i—distribution, physical characteristics, oceanographic controls, and environmental threats
Assessing morphologic controls on atoll island alongshore sediment transport gradients due to future sea-level rise
Rigorously valuing the role of U.S. coral reefs in coastal hazard risk reduction
An economic evaluation of adaptation pathways in coastal mega cities: An illustration for Los Angeles
Sea level rise and uncertainty in its projections pose a major challenge to flood risk management and adaptation investments in coastal mega cities. This study presents a comparative economic evaluation method for flood adaptation measures, which couples a cost–benefit analysis with the concept of adaptation pathways. Our approach accounts for uncertainty in sea level rise projections by allowing
The influence of shelf bathymetry and beach topography on extreme total water levels: Linking large-scale changes of the wave climate to local coastal hazards
Assessing patterns of annual change to permafrost bluffs along the North Slope coast of Alaska using high-resolution imagery and elevation models
Coastal permafrost bluffs at Barter Island, on the North Slope, Beaufort Sea Coast of Alaska are among the most rapidly eroding along Alaska’s coast, having retreated up to 132 m between 1955 and 2015. Here we quantify rates and patterns of change over a single year using very-high resolution orthophotomosaics and co-registered surface elevation models derived from a survey-grade form of structure
HyCReWW: A hybrid coral reef wave and water level metamodel
Dynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal impacts of climate change
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Below are partners associated with this project.
- Overview
The impacts of climate change and sea-level rise around the Pacific and Arctic Oceans can vary tremendously. Thus far the vast majority of national and international impact assessments and models of coastal climate change have focused on low-relief coastlines that are not near seismically active zones. Furthermore, the degree to which extreme waves and wind will add further stress to coastal systems has also been largely disregarded. By working to refine this area of research, USGS aims to help coastal managers and inhabitants understand how their coasts will change.
Why research on climate change and sea-level rise is important
Climate change and sea-level rise are already impacting coastal communities in many locations worldwide, including the U.S. west coast, Alaska, Hawaiʻi, and U.S. affiliated Pacific islands.
In the western tropical Pacific, elevated rates of sea-level rise (up to 1 centimeter/year) affect coastal infrastructure, freshwater resources, and terrestrial and marine ecosystems on U.S.-affiliated islands like the Marshall Islands, American Samoa, and the Northern Marianas. Alterations in storm patterns, contamination of freshwater aquifers by saltwater flooding, and permanent inundation by rising sea level—all fueled by climate change—threaten long-term human habitation on many of these atolls. Efforts to relocate coastal inhabitants from some low-lying Pacific Islands are already underway.
Along Arctic shores of Alaska, shoreline erosion and habitat loss are accelerating due to increasing permafrost thaw and sea ice forming much later in the year, leaving the coast more susceptible to waves and storm surge. Alaskan government agencies and land-use planners are relocating some Native Alaskan villages and critical airstrips farther inland from eroding shores, such as Kivalina on the northwestern coast.
The U.S. west coast is vulnerable as well. In California alone, roughly half a million people and $100 billion worth of coastal property are at risk during the next century. In highly developed coastal areas such as San Francisco Bay and Puget Sound, hundreds of millions of dollars are being spent on restoration of nearshore ecosystems, which protect shorelines from erosion by waves and provide habitat for socially and economically important species. But resource managers remain uncertain whether outcomes of these efforts will be resilient to projected sea-level rise.
Because the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise around the Pacific and Arctic vary considerably, no single solution can mitigate the impacts. Coastal communities, along with federal, state, and local managers, need better scientific information and tools to plan for the particular threats they may face from saltwater flooding, shoreline erosion, and habitat loss.
Historically, simple “bathtub” models of future sea levels have assumed a static coast—one that is neither subsiding nor rising, neither retreating nor growing seaward—and they calculate future flooding based on just sea-level rise and tides, ignoring the impacts of storms. Those models cannot adequately account for the diverse influences that affect most coasts, including sediment input, how the coast is shaped, and “forcings”—atmospheric and oceanographic conditions that force the environment to change (for example, wind and circulation patterns, wave heights and directions).
Thus, in tectonically active coastlines like the U.S. west coast, USGS seeks to develop models that incorporate sea-level rise projections combined with storm impacts, as well as potential changes in wave heights and storm patterns associated with climate change.
What the USGS is doing
We are developing rigorous research tools to understand the physical impacts that climate change and sea-level rise will have on dynamic geologic settings along Pacific and Arctic coasts. This research covers an enormous range of coastal settings: from permafrost coasts, to the Puget Sound estuary, the California coast, and low-lying Pacific atolls.
By understanding the effects of extreme storms, including coastal flooding, changes in the shoreline, and movement of sediment, we can develop better models for understanding long-term vulnerability of sea-level rise in various coastal settings, and help coastal managers and businesses plan for a changing climate.
Our areas of study include the following, with brief descriptions of each.
Climate impacts to Arctic coasts
The Arctic region is warming faster than anywhere else in the nation. Understanding the rates and causes of coastal change in Alaska is needed to identify and mitigate hazards that might affect people and animals that call Alaska home.Low-lying areas of tropical Pacific islands
Sea level is rising faster than projected in the western Pacific, so understanding how wave-driven coastal flooding will affect inhabited, low-lying islands—most notably, the familiar ring-shaped atolls—as well as the low-elevation areas of high islands in the Pacific Ocean, is critical for decision-makers in protecting infrastructure or relocating resources and people.Dynamic coastlines along the western U.S.
The west coast of the United States is extremely complex and changeable because of tectonic activity, mountain building, and land subsidence. These active environments pose a major challenge for accurately assessing climate change impacts, since models were historically developed for more passive sandy coasts.Estuaries and large river deltas in the Pacific Northwest
Essential habitat for wild salmon and other wildlife borders river deltas and estuaries in the Pacific Northwest. These estuaries also support industry, agriculture, and a large human population that’s expected to double by the year 2060, but each could suffer from more severe river floods, higher sea level, and storm surges caused by climate change.Climate impacts on Monterey Bay area beaches
For a beach town like Santa Cruz, preserving beaches by mitigating coastal erosion is vital. USGS scientists conduct regular surveys of the beaches in the Monterey Bay region to better understand the short- and long-term impacts of climate change, El Niño years, and sea-level rise on a populated and vulnerable coastline.Collaborators
Collaborators include USGS Coastal and Marine Geology Program colleagues in Woods Hole, Massachusetts, and St. Petersburg, Florida, and researchers with the USGS Western Ecological Research Center on Mare Island, California. Academic collaborators include those from University of Hawaiʻi, Oregon State University, University of Alaska, University of California, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, and University of Cantabria (Spain). Also involved are colleagues and federal partners from such agencies as the U.S. National Park Service, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Department of Defense, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
- Science
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Filter Total Items: 14No Result Found - Multimedia
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Filter Total Items: 93A holistic modelling approach to project the evolution of inlet-interrupted coastlines over the 21st century
Approximately one quarter of the World’s sandy beaches, most of which are interrupted by tidal inlets, are eroding. Understanding the long-term (50-100 year) evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts in a changing climate is therefore of great importance for coastal zone planners and managers. This study therefore focuses on the development and piloting of an innovative model that can simulate the cliAuthorsJanaka Bamunawala, Ali Dastgheib, Rosh Ranasinghe, Ad van der Spek, Shreedhar Maskey, A. Brad Murray, Trang M. Duong, Patrick L. Barnard, Jeewanthi Gangani SirisenaImpacts of sea-level rise on the tidal reach of California coastal rivers using the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)
In coastal rivers, the interactions between tides and fluvial discharge affect local ecology, sedimentation, river dynamics, river mouth configuration, and the flooding potential in adjacent wetlands and low-lying areas. With sea-level rise, the tidal reach within coastal rivers can expand upstream, impacting river dynamics and increasing flood risk across a much greater area. Rivers along the PacAuthorsAndrea C. O'Neill, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. BarnardHydro-morphological characterization of coral reefs for wave runup prediction
Many coral reef-lined coasts are low-lying with elevations <4 m above mean sea level. Climate-change-driven sea-level rise, coral reef degradation, and changes in storm wave climate will lead to greater occurrence and impacts of wave-driven flooding. This poses a significant threat to their coastal communities. While greatly at risk, the complex hydrodynamics and bathymetry of reef-lined coasts maAuthorsFred Scott, Jose A. A. Antolinez, Robert T. McCall, Curt D. Storlazzi, Ad Reiners, Stuart PearsonSteps to develop early warning systems and future scenarios of wave-driven flooding along coral reef-lined coasts
Tropical coral reef-lined coasts are exposed to storm wave-driven flooding. In the future, flood events during storms are expected to occur more frequently and to be more severe due to sea-level rise, changes in wind and weather patterns, and the deterioration of coral reefs. Hence, disaster managers and coastal planners are in urgent need of decision-support tools. In the short-term, these toolsAuthorsGundula Winter, Curt D. Storlazzi, Sean Vitousek, Ap van Dongeren, Robert T. McCall, Ron Hoeke, William Skirving, John Marra, Johan Reyns, Jerome Aucan, Matthew J. Widlansky, Janet Becker, Chris Perry, Gerd Masselink, Ryan Lowe, Murray Ford, Andrew Pomeroy, Fernando J. Mendez, Ana C. Rueda, Moritz WandresThe major coral reefs of Maui Nui, Hawai‘i—distribution, physical characteristics, oceanographic controls, and environmental threats
Coral reefs are widely recognized as critical to Hawaiʻi’s economy, food resources, and protection from damaging storm waves. Yet overfishing, land-based pollution, and climate change are threatening the health and sustainability of those reefs, and accordingly, both the Federal and State governments have called for protection and effective management. In 2000, the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force stateAuthorsMichael E. Field, Curt D. Storlazzi, Ann E. Gibbs, Nicole L. D'Antonio, Susan A. CochranAssessing morphologic controls on atoll island alongshore sediment transport gradients due to future sea-level rise
Atoll islands’ alongshore sediment transport gradients depend on how island and reef morphology affect incident wave energy. It is unclear, though, how potential atoll morphologic configurations influence shoreline erosion and/or accretion patterns, and how these relationships will respond to future sea-level rise (SLR). Schematic atoll models with varying morphologies were used to evaluate the reAuthorsJames B. Shope, Curt D. StorlazziRigorously valuing the role of U.S. coral reefs in coastal hazard risk reduction
The degradation of coastal habitats, particularly coral reefs, raises risks by increasing the exposure of coastal communities to flooding hazards. The protective services of these natural defenses are not assessed in the same rigorous economic terms as artificial defenses, such as seawalls, and therefore often are not considered in decision making. Here we combine engineering, ecologic, geospatialAuthorsCurt D. Storlazzi, Borja G. Reguero, Aaron Cole, Erik Lowe, James B. Shope, Ann E. Gibbs, Barry A. Nickel, Robert T. McCall, Ap R. van Dongeren, Michael W. BeckAn economic evaluation of adaptation pathways in coastal mega cities: An illustration for Los Angeles
Sea level rise and uncertainty in its projections pose a major challenge to flood risk management and adaptation investments in coastal mega cities. This study presents a comparative economic evaluation method for flood adaptation measures, which couples a cost–benefit analysis with the concept of adaptation pathways. Our approach accounts for uncertainty in sea level rise projections by allowing
AuthorsLars T. de Ruig, Patrick L. Barnard, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Phyllis Grifman, Juliette Finzi Hart, Hans de Moel, Nick Sadrpour, Jeroen C.J.H. AertsThe influence of shelf bathymetry and beach topography on extreme total water levels: Linking large-scale changes of the wave climate to local coastal hazards
Total water levels (TWLs) at the coast are driven by a combination of deterministic (e.g., tides) and stochastic (e.g., waves, storm surge, and sea level anomalies) processes. The contribution of each process to TWLs varies depending on regional differences in climate and framework geology, as well as local-scale variations in beach morphology, coastal orientation, and shelf bathymetry. Large-scalAuthorsKatherine A. Serafin, Peter Ruggiero, Patrick L. Barnard, Hilary F. StockdonAssessing patterns of annual change to permafrost bluffs along the North Slope coast of Alaska using high-resolution imagery and elevation models
Coastal permafrost bluffs at Barter Island, on the North Slope, Beaufort Sea Coast of Alaska are among the most rapidly eroding along Alaska’s coast, having retreated up to 132 m between 1955 and 2015. Here we quantify rates and patterns of change over a single year using very-high resolution orthophotomosaics and co-registered surface elevation models derived from a survey-grade form of structure
AuthorsAnn E. Gibbs, Matt Nolan, Bruce M. Richmond, Alexander G. Snyder, Li EriksonHyCReWW: A hybrid coral reef wave and water level metamodel
Wave-induced flooding is a major coastal hazard on tropical islands fronted by coral reefs. The variability of shape, size, and physical characteristics of the reefs across the globe make it difficult to obtain a parameterization of wave run-up, which is needed for risk assessments. Therefore, we developed the HyCReWW metamodel to predict wave run-up under a wide range of reef morphometric and offAuthorsAna C. Rueda, Laura Cagigal, Stuart Pearson, Jose Antolínez, Curt D. Storlazzi, Ap van Dongeren, Paula Camus, Fernando J. MendezDynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal impacts of climate change
Coastal inundation due to sea level rise (SLR) is projected to displace hundreds of millions of people worldwide over the next century, creating significant economic, humanitarian, and national-security challenges. However, the majority of previous efforts to characterize potential coastal impacts of climate change have focused primarily on long-term SLR with a static tide level, and have not compAuthorsPatrick L. Barnard, Li H. Erikson, Amy C. Foxgrover, Juliette A. Finzi Hart, Patrick W. Limber, Andrea C. O'Neill, Maarten van Ormondt, Sean Vitousek, Nathan J. Wood, Maya K. Hayden, Jeanne M. Jones - Web Tools
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Filter Total Items: 28 - Partners
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