Coastal Climate Impacts Active
The impacts of climate change and sea-level rise around the Pacific and Arctic Oceans can vary tremendously. Thus far the vast majority of national and international impact assessments and models of coastal climate change have focused on low-relief coastlines that are not near seismically active zones. Furthermore, the degree to which extreme waves and wind will add further stress to coastal systems has also been largely disregarded. By working to refine this area of research, USGS aims to help coastal managers and inhabitants understand how their coasts will change.
Why research on climate change and sea-level rise is important
Climate change and sea-level rise are already impacting coastal communities in many locations worldwide, including the U.S. west coast, Alaska, Hawaiʻi, and U.S. affiliated Pacific islands.
In the western tropical Pacific, elevated rates of sea-level rise (up to 1 centimeter/year) affect coastal infrastructure, freshwater resources, and terrestrial and marine ecosystems on U.S.-affiliated islands like the Marshall Islands, American Samoa, and the Northern Marianas. Alterations in storm patterns, contamination of freshwater aquifers by saltwater flooding, and permanent inundation by rising sea level—all fueled by climate change—threaten long-term human habitation on many of these atolls. Efforts to relocate coastal inhabitants from some low-lying Pacific Islands are already underway.
Along Arctic shores of Alaska, shoreline erosion and habitat loss are accelerating due to increasing permafrost thaw and sea ice forming much later in the year, leaving the coast more susceptible to waves and storm surge. Alaskan government agencies and land-use planners are relocating some Native Alaskan villages and critical airstrips farther inland from eroding shores, such as Kivalina on the northwestern coast.
The U.S. west coast is vulnerable as well. In California alone, roughly half a million people and $100 billion worth of coastal property are at risk during the next century. In highly developed coastal areas such as San Francisco Bay and Puget Sound, hundreds of millions of dollars are being spent on restoration of nearshore ecosystems, which protect shorelines from erosion by waves and provide habitat for socially and economically important species. But resource managers remain uncertain whether outcomes of these efforts will be resilient to projected sea-level rise.
Because the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise around the Pacific and Arctic vary considerably, no single solution can mitigate the impacts. Coastal communities, along with federal, state, and local managers, need better scientific information and tools to plan for the particular threats they may face from saltwater flooding, shoreline erosion, and habitat loss.
Historically, simple “bathtub” models of future sea levels have assumed a static coast—one that is neither subsiding nor rising, neither retreating nor growing seaward—and they calculate future flooding based on just sea-level rise and tides, ignoring the impacts of storms. Those models cannot adequately account for the diverse influences that affect most coasts, including sediment input, how the coast is shaped, and “forcings”—atmospheric and oceanographic conditions that force the environment to change (for example, wind and circulation patterns, wave heights and directions).
Thus, in tectonically active coastlines like the U.S. west coast, USGS seeks to develop models that incorporate sea-level rise projections combined with storm impacts, as well as potential changes in wave heights and storm patterns associated with climate change.
What the USGS is doing
We are developing rigorous research tools to understand the physical impacts that climate change and sea-level rise will have on dynamic geologic settings along Pacific and Arctic coasts. This research covers an enormous range of coastal settings: from permafrost coasts, to the Puget Sound estuary, the California coast, and low-lying Pacific atolls.
By understanding the effects of extreme storms, including coastal flooding, changes in the shoreline, and movement of sediment, we can develop better models for understanding long-term vulnerability of sea-level rise in various coastal settings, and help coastal managers and businesses plan for a changing climate.
Our areas of study include the following, with brief descriptions of each.
Climate impacts to Arctic coasts
The Arctic region is warming faster than anywhere else in the nation. Understanding the rates and causes of coastal change in Alaska is needed to identify and mitigate hazards that might affect people and animals that call Alaska home.
Low-lying areas of tropical Pacific islands
Sea level is rising faster than projected in the western Pacific, so understanding how wave-driven coastal flooding will affect inhabited, low-lying islands—most notably, the familiar ring-shaped atolls—as well as the low-elevation areas of high islands in the Pacific Ocean, is critical for decision-makers in protecting infrastructure or relocating resources and people.
Dynamic coastlines along the western U.S.
The west coast of the United States is extremely complex and changeable because of tectonic activity, mountain building, and land subsidence. These active environments pose a major challenge for accurately assessing climate change impacts, since models were historically developed for more passive sandy coasts.
Estuaries and large river deltas in the Pacific Northwest
Essential habitat for wild salmon and other wildlife borders river deltas and estuaries in the Pacific Northwest. These estuaries also support industry, agriculture, and a large human population that’s expected to double by the year 2060, but each could suffer from more severe river floods, higher sea level, and storm surges caused by climate change.
Climate impacts on Monterey Bay area beaches
For a beach town like Santa Cruz, preserving beaches by mitigating coastal erosion is vital. USGS scientists conduct regular surveys of the beaches in the Monterey Bay region to better understand the short- and long-term impacts of climate change, El Niño years, and sea-level rise on a populated and vulnerable coastline.
Collaborators
Collaborators include USGS Coastal and Marine Geology Program colleagues in Woods Hole, Massachusetts, and St. Petersburg, Florida, and researchers with the USGS Western Ecological Research Center on Mare Island, California. Academic collaborators include those from University of Hawaiʻi, Oregon State University, University of Alaska, University of California, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, and University of Cantabria (Spain). Also involved are colleagues and federal partners from such agencies as the U.S. National Park Service, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Department of Defense, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Below are all of the research topics associated with this project.
Below are data releases associated with this project.
Projected flooding extents and depths based on 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year wave-energy return periods, with and without coral reefs, for the States of Hawaii and Florida, the Territories of Guam, American Samoa, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands,
Orthophotomosaics, elevation point clouds, digital surface elevation models and supporting data from the north coast of Barter Island, Alaska
Below are multimedia items associated with this project.
Below are publications associated with this project.
Role of future reef growth on morphological response of coral reef islands to sea-level rise
USGS permafrost research determines the risks of permafrost thaw to biologic and hydrologic resources
Geochemistry of coastal permafrost and erosion-driven organic matter fluxes to the Beaufort Sea near Drew Point, Alaska
Editorial: Flooding on coral reef-lined coasts: Current state of knowledge and future challenges
Coastal permafrost erosion
Changing storm conditions in response to projected 21st century climate change and the potential impact on an arctic barrier island–lagoon system—A pilot study for Arey Island and Lagoon, eastern Arctic Alaska
The impacts of the 2015/2016 El Niño on California's sandy beaches
Probabilistic application of an integrated catchment-estuary-coastal system model to assess the evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts over the 21st century
Sea‐level rise will drive divergent sediment transport patterns on fore reefs and reef flats, potentially causing erosion on atoll islands
Sediment export and impacts associated with river delta channelization compound estuary vulnerability to sea-level rise, Skagit River Delta, Washington, USA
Increasing threat of coastal groundwater hazards from sea-level rise in California
The importance of explicitly modelling sea-swell waves for runup on reef-lined coasts
Below are data releases associated with this project.
Below are news stories associated with this project.
Below are partners associated with this project.
- Overview
The impacts of climate change and sea-level rise around the Pacific and Arctic Oceans can vary tremendously. Thus far the vast majority of national and international impact assessments and models of coastal climate change have focused on low-relief coastlines that are not near seismically active zones. Furthermore, the degree to which extreme waves and wind will add further stress to coastal systems has also been largely disregarded. By working to refine this area of research, USGS aims to help coastal managers and inhabitants understand how their coasts will change.
Why research on climate change and sea-level rise is important
Climate change and sea-level rise are already impacting coastal communities in many locations worldwide, including the U.S. west coast, Alaska, Hawaiʻi, and U.S. affiliated Pacific islands.
In the western tropical Pacific, elevated rates of sea-level rise (up to 1 centimeter/year) affect coastal infrastructure, freshwater resources, and terrestrial and marine ecosystems on U.S.-affiliated islands like the Marshall Islands, American Samoa, and the Northern Marianas. Alterations in storm patterns, contamination of freshwater aquifers by saltwater flooding, and permanent inundation by rising sea level—all fueled by climate change—threaten long-term human habitation on many of these atolls. Efforts to relocate coastal inhabitants from some low-lying Pacific Islands are already underway.
Along Arctic shores of Alaska, shoreline erosion and habitat loss are accelerating due to increasing permafrost thaw and sea ice forming much later in the year, leaving the coast more susceptible to waves and storm surge. Alaskan government agencies and land-use planners are relocating some Native Alaskan villages and critical airstrips farther inland from eroding shores, such as Kivalina on the northwestern coast.
The U.S. west coast is vulnerable as well. In California alone, roughly half a million people and $100 billion worth of coastal property are at risk during the next century. In highly developed coastal areas such as San Francisco Bay and Puget Sound, hundreds of millions of dollars are being spent on restoration of nearshore ecosystems, which protect shorelines from erosion by waves and provide habitat for socially and economically important species. But resource managers remain uncertain whether outcomes of these efforts will be resilient to projected sea-level rise.
Because the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise around the Pacific and Arctic vary considerably, no single solution can mitigate the impacts. Coastal communities, along with federal, state, and local managers, need better scientific information and tools to plan for the particular threats they may face from saltwater flooding, shoreline erosion, and habitat loss.
Historically, simple “bathtub” models of future sea levels have assumed a static coast—one that is neither subsiding nor rising, neither retreating nor growing seaward—and they calculate future flooding based on just sea-level rise and tides, ignoring the impacts of storms. Those models cannot adequately account for the diverse influences that affect most coasts, including sediment input, how the coast is shaped, and “forcings”—atmospheric and oceanographic conditions that force the environment to change (for example, wind and circulation patterns, wave heights and directions).
Thus, in tectonically active coastlines like the U.S. west coast, USGS seeks to develop models that incorporate sea-level rise projections combined with storm impacts, as well as potential changes in wave heights and storm patterns associated with climate change.
What the USGS is doing
We are developing rigorous research tools to understand the physical impacts that climate change and sea-level rise will have on dynamic geologic settings along Pacific and Arctic coasts. This research covers an enormous range of coastal settings: from permafrost coasts, to the Puget Sound estuary, the California coast, and low-lying Pacific atolls.
By understanding the effects of extreme storms, including coastal flooding, changes in the shoreline, and movement of sediment, we can develop better models for understanding long-term vulnerability of sea-level rise in various coastal settings, and help coastal managers and businesses plan for a changing climate.
Our areas of study include the following, with brief descriptions of each.
Climate impacts to Arctic coasts
The Arctic region is warming faster than anywhere else in the nation. Understanding the rates and causes of coastal change in Alaska is needed to identify and mitigate hazards that might affect people and animals that call Alaska home.Low-lying areas of tropical Pacific islands
Sea level is rising faster than projected in the western Pacific, so understanding how wave-driven coastal flooding will affect inhabited, low-lying islands—most notably, the familiar ring-shaped atolls—as well as the low-elevation areas of high islands in the Pacific Ocean, is critical for decision-makers in protecting infrastructure or relocating resources and people.Dynamic coastlines along the western U.S.
The west coast of the United States is extremely complex and changeable because of tectonic activity, mountain building, and land subsidence. These active environments pose a major challenge for accurately assessing climate change impacts, since models were historically developed for more passive sandy coasts.Estuaries and large river deltas in the Pacific Northwest
Essential habitat for wild salmon and other wildlife borders river deltas and estuaries in the Pacific Northwest. These estuaries also support industry, agriculture, and a large human population that’s expected to double by the year 2060, but each could suffer from more severe river floods, higher sea level, and storm surges caused by climate change.Climate impacts on Monterey Bay area beaches
For a beach town like Santa Cruz, preserving beaches by mitigating coastal erosion is vital. USGS scientists conduct regular surveys of the beaches in the Monterey Bay region to better understand the short- and long-term impacts of climate change, El Niño years, and sea-level rise on a populated and vulnerable coastline.Collaborators
Collaborators include USGS Coastal and Marine Geology Program colleagues in Woods Hole, Massachusetts, and St. Petersburg, Florida, and researchers with the USGS Western Ecological Research Center on Mare Island, California. Academic collaborators include those from University of Hawaiʻi, Oregon State University, University of Alaska, University of California, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, and University of Cantabria (Spain). Also involved are colleagues and federal partners from such agencies as the U.S. National Park Service, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Department of Defense, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
- Science
Below are all of the research topics associated with this project.
- Data
Below are data releases associated with this project.
Filter Total Items: 14Projected flooding extents and depths based on 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year wave-energy return periods, with and without coral reefs, for the States of Hawaii and Florida, the Territories of Guam, American Samoa, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands,
This data release provides flooding extent polygons (flood masks) and depth values (flood points) based on wave-driven total water levels for 22 locations within the States of Hawaii and Florida, the Territories of Guam, American Samoa, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. For each of the 22 locations there are eight associated flood maskOrthophotomosaics, elevation point clouds, digital surface elevation models and supporting data from the north coast of Barter Island, Alaska
Aerial photographs were collected from a small, fixed-wing aircraft over the coast of Barter Island, Alaska on three separate dates: July 01 2014, September 07 2014, and July 05 2015. Precise aircraft position information and structure-from-motion photogrammetric methods were combined to derive high-resolution orthophotomosaics and elevation point clouds. Ground control acquired using precise posi - Multimedia
Below are multimedia items associated with this project.
- Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Filter Total Items: 93Role of future reef growth on morphological response of coral reef islands to sea-level rise
Coral reefs are widely recognised for providing a natural breakwater effect that modulates erosion and flooding hazards on low‐lying sedimentary reef islands. Increased water depth across reef platforms due sea‐level rise (SLR) can compromise this breakwater effect and enhance island exposure to these hazards, but reef accretion in response to SLR may positively contribute to island resilience. MoAuthorsGerd Masselink, Robert T. McCall, Eddie Beetham, Paul Kench, Curt StorlazziUSGS permafrost research determines the risks of permafrost thaw to biologic and hydrologic resources
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with university, Federal, Tribal, and independent partners, conducts fundamental research on the distribution, vulnerability, and importance of permafrost in arctic and boreal ecosystems. Scientists, land managers, and policy makers use USGS data to help make decisions for development, wildlife habitat, and other needs. Native villages and citiesAuthorsMark P. Waldrop, Lesleigh Anderson, Mark Dornblaser, Li H. Erikson, Ann E. Gibbs, Nicole M. Herman-Mercer, Stephanie R. James, Miriam C. Jones, Joshua C. Koch, Mary-Cathrine Leewis, Kristen L. Manies, Burke J. Minsley, Neal J. Pastick, Vijay Patil, Frank Urban, Michelle A. Walvoord, Kimberly P. Wickland, Christian ZimmermanByNatural Hazards Mission Area, Water Resources Mission Area, Climate Research and Development Program, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Land Change Science Program, Volcano Hazards Program, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center , Geology, Geophysics, and Geochemistry Science Center, Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center, Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Volcano Science CenterGeochemistry of coastal permafrost and erosion-driven organic matter fluxes to the Beaufort Sea near Drew Point, Alaska
Accelerating erosion of the Alaska Beaufort Sea coast is increasing inputs of organic matter from land to the Arctic Ocean, and improved estimates of organic matter stocks in eroding coastal permafrost are needed to assess their mobilization rates under contemporary conditions. We collected three permafrost cores (4.5–7.5 m long) along a geomorphic gradient near Drew Point, Alaska, where recent erAuthorsEmily M. Bristol, Craig T. Connolly, Thomas Lorenson, Bruce M. Richmond, Anastasia G. Ilgen, Charles R. Choens, Diana L. Bull, Mikhail Z. Kanevskiy, Go Iwahana, Benjamin M. Jones, James W. McClellandEditorial: Flooding on coral reef-lined coasts: Current state of knowledge and future challenges
No abstract available.AuthorsWilliam Skirving, Andrew Pomeroy, Robert T. McCall, John Marra, Curt StorlazziCoastal permafrost erosion
Highlights• Since the early 2000s, erosion of permafrost coasts in the Arctic has increased at 13 of 14 sites with observational data that extend back to ca. 1960 and ca. 1980, coinciding with warming temperatures, sea ice reduction, and permafrost thaw.• Permafrost coasts along the US and Canadian Beaufort Sea experienced the largest increase in erosion rates in the Arctic, ranging from +80 to +1AuthorsBenjamin M. Jones, Anna M. Irrgang, Louise M. Farquharson, Hugues Lantuit, Dustin Whalen, Stanislav Ogorodov, Mikhail Grigoriev, Craig E. Tweedie, Ann E. Gibbs, Matt C Strzelecki, Alisa Baranskaya, Nataliya Belova, Anatoly Sinitsyn, Art Kroon, Alexey Maslakov, Gonçalo Vieira, Guido Grosse, Paul Overduin, Ingmar Nitze, Christopher V. Maio, Jacquelyn R. Overbeck, Mette Bendixen, Piotr Zagórski, Vladimir RomanovskyChanging storm conditions in response to projected 21st century climate change and the potential impact on an arctic barrier island–lagoon system—A pilot study for Arey Island and Lagoon, eastern Arctic Alaska
Executive SummaryArey Lagoon, located in eastern Arctic Alaska, supports a highly productive ecosystem, where soft substrate and coastal wet sedge fringing the shores are feeding grounds and nurseries for a variety of marine fish and waterfowl. The lagoon is partially protected from the direct onslaught of Arctic Ocean waves by a barrier island chain (Arey Island) which in itself provides importanAuthorsLi H. Erikson, Ann E. Gibbs, Bruce M. Richmond, Curt D. Storlazzi, Benjamin M. Jones, Karin OhmanThe impacts of the 2015/2016 El Niño on California's sandy beaches
The El Niño Southern Oscillation is the most dominant mode of interannual climate variability in the Pacific. The 2015/2016 El Niño event was one of the strongest of the last 145 years, resulting in anomalously high wave energy across the U.S. West Coast, and record coastal erosion for many California beaches. To better manage coastal resources, it is critical to understand the impacts of both shoAuthorsSchuyler A Smith, Patrick L. BarnardProbabilistic application of an integrated catchment-estuary-coastal system model to assess the evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts over the 21st century
Inlet-interrupted sandy coasts are dynamic and complex coastal systems with continuously evolving geomorphological behaviors under the influences of both climate change and human activities. These coastal systems are of great importance to society (e.g., providing habitats, navigation, and recreational activities) and are affected by both oceanic and terrestrial processes. Therefore, the evolutionAuthorsJ. Bamunawala, Ali Dastgheib, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Ad van der Spek, Shreedhar Maskey, A. Brad Murray, Patrick L. Barnard, Trang Minh Duong, T.A.J.G. SirisenaSea‐level rise will drive divergent sediment transport patterns on fore reefs and reef flats, potentially causing erosion on atoll islands
Atoll reef islands primarily consist of unconsolidated sediment, and their ocean‐facing shorelines are maintained by sediment produced and transported across their reefs. Changes in incident waves can alter cross‐shore sediment exchange and, thus, affect the sediment budget and morphology of atoll reef islands. Here we investigate the influence of sea level rise and projected wave climate change oAuthorsJames F Bramante, Andrew D Ashton, Curt D. Storlazzi, Olivia Cheriton, Jeffrey P. DonnellySediment export and impacts associated with river delta channelization compound estuary vulnerability to sea-level rise, Skagit River Delta, Washington, USA
Improved understanding of the budget and retention of sediment in river deltas is becoming increasingly important to mitigate and plan for impacts expected with sea level rise. In this study, analyses of historical bathymetric change, sediment core stratigraphy, and modeling are used to evaluate the sediment budget and environmental response of the largest river delta in the U.S. Pacific NorthwestAuthorsEric E. Grossman, Andrew W. Stevens, Peter Dartnell, Doug A George, David FinlaysonIncreasing threat of coastal groundwater hazards from sea-level rise in California
Projected sea-level rise will raise coastal water tables, resulting in groundwater hazards that threaten shallow infrastructure and coastal ecosystem resilience. Here we model a range of sea-level rise scenarios to assess the responses of water tables across the diverse topography and climates of the California coast. With 1 m of sea-level rise, areas flooded from below are predicted to expand ~50AuthorsK.M. Befus, Patrick L. Barnard, Daniel J. Hoover, Juliette Finzi Hart, Clifford I. VossThe importance of explicitly modelling sea-swell waves for runup on reef-lined coasts
The importance of explicitly modelling sea-swell waves for runup was examined using a 2D XBeach short wave-averaged (surfbeat, “XB-SB”) and a wave-resolving (non-hydrostatic, “XB-NH”) model of Roi-Namur Island on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of Marshall Islands. Field observations on water levels, wave heights, and wave runup were used to drive and evaluate both models, which were subsequentlyAuthorsEllen Quataert, Curt D. Storlazzi, Ap van Dongeren, Robert T. McCall - Web Tools
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Filter Total Items: 28 - Partners
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