Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) Active
Eyes in the Sky
How Satellite Imagery Transforms Shoreline Monitoring From “Data-Poor” to “Data-Rich”
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales. CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications and future climate scenarios to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings.
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) is a dynamic modeling approach that has been developed by the United States Geological Survey in order to allow more detailed predictions of coastal flooding due to both future sea-level rise and storms integrated with long-term coastal evolution (i.e., beach changes and cliff/bluff retreat) over large geographic areas (100s of kilometers). CoSMoS models all the relevant physics of a coastal storm (e.g.,tides, waves, and storm surge), which are then scaled down to local flood projections for use in community-level coastal planning and decision-making. Rather than relying on historic storm records, CoSMoS uses wind and pressure from global climate models to project coastal storms under changing climatic conditions during the 21st century.
Projections of multiple storm scenarios (daily conditions, annual storm, 20-year- and 100-year-return intervals) are provided under a suite of sea-level rise scenarios ranging from 0 to 2 meters (0 to 6.6 feet), along with an extreme 5-meter (16-foot) scenario. This allows users to manage and meet their own planning horizons and specify degrees of risk tolerance.
CoSMoS projections are currently available for the north-central coast (Half Moon Bay to Pt. Arena), San Francisco Bay, southern California, and the central California coast. The north coast of California will follow.
All modeling results are available as GIS shapefiles, with accompanying metadata, at USGS ScienceBase-Catalog. CoSMoS information can also be accessed, viewed, and downloaded through the Our Coast, Our Future (OCOF) flood mapper, which provides a user-friendly web-based tool for viewing all model results. OCOF also provides resources and guidance for helping communities navigate and utilize the wealth of information provided by CoSMoS.
To support coastal communities in their planning, the CoSMoS team has partnered with Dr. Nathan Wood (USGS, Western Geographic Science Center) to develop the Hazards Exposure Reporting and Analytics (HERA) application. HERA displays estimates of residents, businesses and infrastructure that could be exposed to CoSMoS flooding projections from each coastal storm and sea level rise scenarios. This partnership of expertise in coastal processes and hazard risk and vulnerability sciences allowed the creation of an interactive website application that helps improve awareness and planning efforts regarding socioeconomic exposure to climate change related coastal hazards.
Although the CoSMoS modeling system was initially developed for use in the high wave-energy environment of the U.S. west coast, CoSMoS is not site-specific and can be utilized on sandy and/or cliff-backed coasts throughout the world. The prototype system developed for the California coast uses the global WAVEWATCH III wave model, the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimetry-based global tide model, and atmospheric forcing data from either the U.S. National Weather Service (operational mode) or Global Climate Models (future climate mode) to determine regional wave and water-level boundary conditions. These regional conditions are then dynamically downscaled using a set of nested Delft3D wave (SWAN) and tide (FLOW) models, and are then linked at the coast to river discharge projections, fine-scale estuary models, and along the open coast to closely spaced XBeach (eXtreme Beach) cross-shore profile models. The elevation of the coast is updated for each sea level rise scenario based on the projected long-term evolution of the sandy beaches and cliffs.
CoSMoS Partners
CoSMoS modeling results have been used by a large number of federal and state partners as well as local communities throughout California. In the San Francisco Bay area and southern California regions, 14 municipalities, including the cities of San Francisco and Los Angeles, and 7 coastal counties (e.g., Marin, San Mateo, San Francisco, and Los Angeles) are actively using CoSMoS for local coastal planning efforts. The major utilities - Pacific Gas & Electric, Southern California Edison, San Diego Gas & Electric and the Los Angeles Department of Water & Power - are similarly using CoSMoS to assess their assets’ vulnerability to sea level rise and coastal storms. CoSMoS also supports a number of state agencies and federal partners; see the whole list on our Partners tab.
Funding for CoSMoS
In addition to extensive internal USGS funding, the CoSMoS team is thankful for the support from California state agencies and communities who have supported and encouraged CoSMoS model development.
Below are links to all CoSMoS Applications.
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)
Below are web applications and the larger, published data releases associated with this project. The larger data releases contain many models, projections, and data subsets.
Below are publications associated with this project.
A multimodal wave spectrum-based approach for statistical downscaling of local wave climate
Creating a Coastal National Elevation Database (CoNED) for science and conservation applications
Sea-level rise and coastal groundwater inundation and shoaling at select sites in California, USA
Effects of climate change on tidal marshes along a latitudinal gradient in California
Projected wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific under the influence of two CMIP5 climate scenarios
Development of the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for predicting the impact of storms on high-energy, active-margin coasts
A Seamless, High-Resolution, Coastal Digital Elevation Model (DEM) for Southern California
The framework of a coastal hazards model: A tool for predicting the impact of severe storms
Below are web applications and the larger, published data releases associated with this project. The larger data releases contain many models, projections, and data subsets.
Below are news stories associated with this project.
Below are partners associated with this project.
- Overview
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales. CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications and future climate scenarios to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings.
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) is a dynamic modeling approach that has been developed by the United States Geological Survey in order to allow more detailed predictions of coastal flooding due to both future sea-level rise and storms integrated with long-term coastal evolution (i.e., beach changes and cliff/bluff retreat) over large geographic areas (100s of kilometers). CoSMoS models all the relevant physics of a coastal storm (e.g.,tides, waves, and storm surge), which are then scaled down to local flood projections for use in community-level coastal planning and decision-making. Rather than relying on historic storm records, CoSMoS uses wind and pressure from global climate models to project coastal storms under changing climatic conditions during the 21st century.
Projections of multiple storm scenarios (daily conditions, annual storm, 20-year- and 100-year-return intervals) are provided under a suite of sea-level rise scenarios ranging from 0 to 2 meters (0 to 6.6 feet), along with an extreme 5-meter (16-foot) scenario. This allows users to manage and meet their own planning horizons and specify degrees of risk tolerance.
CoSMoS projections are currently available for the north-central coast (Half Moon Bay to Pt. Arena), San Francisco Bay, southern California, and the central California coast. The north coast of California will follow.
All modeling results are available as GIS shapefiles, with accompanying metadata, at USGS ScienceBase-Catalog. CoSMoS information can also be accessed, viewed, and downloaded through the Our Coast, Our Future (OCOF) flood mapper, which provides a user-friendly web-based tool for viewing all model results. OCOF also provides resources and guidance for helping communities navigate and utilize the wealth of information provided by CoSMoS.
To support coastal communities in their planning, the CoSMoS team has partnered with Dr. Nathan Wood (USGS, Western Geographic Science Center) to develop the Hazards Exposure Reporting and Analytics (HERA) application. HERA displays estimates of residents, businesses and infrastructure that could be exposed to CoSMoS flooding projections from each coastal storm and sea level rise scenarios. This partnership of expertise in coastal processes and hazard risk and vulnerability sciences allowed the creation of an interactive website application that helps improve awareness and planning efforts regarding socioeconomic exposure to climate change related coastal hazards.
Although the CoSMoS modeling system was initially developed for use in the high wave-energy environment of the U.S. west coast, CoSMoS is not site-specific and can be utilized on sandy and/or cliff-backed coasts throughout the world. The prototype system developed for the California coast uses the global WAVEWATCH III wave model, the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimetry-based global tide model, and atmospheric forcing data from either the U.S. National Weather Service (operational mode) or Global Climate Models (future climate mode) to determine regional wave and water-level boundary conditions. These regional conditions are then dynamically downscaled using a set of nested Delft3D wave (SWAN) and tide (FLOW) models, and are then linked at the coast to river discharge projections, fine-scale estuary models, and along the open coast to closely spaced XBeach (eXtreme Beach) cross-shore profile models. The elevation of the coast is updated for each sea level rise scenario based on the projected long-term evolution of the sandy beaches and cliffs.
CoSMoS Partners
CoSMoS modeling results have been used by a large number of federal and state partners as well as local communities throughout California. In the San Francisco Bay area and southern California regions, 14 municipalities, including the cities of San Francisco and Los Angeles, and 7 coastal counties (e.g., Marin, San Mateo, San Francisco, and Los Angeles) are actively using CoSMoS for local coastal planning efforts. The major utilities - Pacific Gas & Electric, Southern California Edison, San Diego Gas & Electric and the Los Angeles Department of Water & Power - are similarly using CoSMoS to assess their assets’ vulnerability to sea level rise and coastal storms. CoSMoS also supports a number of state agencies and federal partners; see the whole list on our Partners tab.
Funding for CoSMoS
In addition to extensive internal USGS funding, the CoSMoS team is thankful for the support from California state agencies and communities who have supported and encouraged CoSMoS model development.
- Science
Below are links to all CoSMoS Applications.
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales. CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications and future climate scenarios to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety... - Data
Below are web applications and the larger, published data releases associated with this project. The larger data releases contain many models, projections, and data subsets.
- Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Filter Total Items: 32A multimodal wave spectrum-based approach for statistical downscaling of local wave climate
Characterization of wave climate by bulk wave parameters is insufficient for many coastal studies, including those focused on assessing coastal hazards and long-term wave climate influences on coastal evolution. This issue is particularly relevant for studies using statistical downscaling of atmospheric fields to local wave conditions, which are often multimodal in large ocean basins (e.g. the PacAuthorsChristie Hegermiller, Jose A. A. Antolinez, Ana C. Rueda, Paula Camus, Jorge Perez, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Fernando J. MendezCreating a Coastal National Elevation Database (CoNED) for science and conservation applications
The U.S. Geological Survey is creating the Coastal National Elevation Database, an expanding set of topobathymetric elevation models that extend seamlessly across coastal regions of high societal or ecological significance in the United States that are undergoing rapid change or are threatened by inundation hazards. Topobathymetric elevation models are raster datasets useful for inundation predictAuthorsCindy A. Thatcher, John Brock, Jeffrey J. Danielson, Sandra K. Poppenga, Dean B. Gesch, Monica Palaseanu-Lovejoy, John Barras, Gayla A. Evans, Ann GibbsSea-level rise and coastal groundwater inundation and shoaling at select sites in California, USA
Study regionThe study region spans coastal California, USA, and focuses on three primary sites: Arcata, Stinson Beach, and Malibu Lagoon.Study focus1 m and 2 m sea-level rise (SLR) projections were used to assess vulnerability to SLR-driven groundwater emergence and shoaling at select low-lying, coastal sites in California. Separate and combined inundation scenarios for SLR and groundwater emergenAuthorsDaniel J. Hoover, Kingsley Odigie, Peter W. Swarzenski, Patrick L. BarnardEffects of climate change on tidal marshes along a latitudinal gradient in California
Public SummaryThe coastal region of California supports a wealth of ecosystem services including habitat provision for wildlife and fisheries. Tidal marshes, mudflats, and shallow bays within coastal estuaries link marine, freshwater and terrestrial habitats, and provide economic and recreational benefits to local communities. Climate change effects such as sea-level rise (SLR) are altering theseAuthorsKaren M. Thorne, Glen M. MacDonald, Rich F. Ambrose, Kevin J. Buffington, Chase M. Freeman, Christopher N. Janousek, Lauren N. Brown, James R. Holmquist, Glenn R. Guntenspergen, Katherine W. Powelson, Patrick L. Barnard, John Y. TakekawaProjected wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific under the influence of two CMIP5 climate scenarios
Hindcast and 21st century winds, simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs), were used to drive global- and regional-scale spectral wind-wave generation models in the Pacific Ocean Basin to assess future wave conditions along the margins of the North American west coast and Hawaiian Islands. Three-hourly winds simulated by four separate GCMs were used to generate an ensemble of wave conditionsAuthorsLi H. Erikson, Christie Hegermiller, Patrick L. Barnard, Peter Ruggiero, Martin van OrmondtDevelopment of the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for predicting the impact of storms on high-energy, active-margin coasts
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) applies a predominantly deterministic framework to make detailed predictions (meter scale) of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers). CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications (i.e., nowcasts and multiday forecasts), and future climate scenarios (i.e., sea-levAuthorsPatrick L. Barnard, Maarten van Ormondt, Li H. Erikson, Jodi Eshleman, Cheryl J. Hapke, Peter Ruggiero, Peter Adams, Amy C. FoxgroverA Seamless, High-Resolution, Coastal Digital Elevation Model (DEM) for Southern California
A seamless, 3-meter digital elevation model (DEM) was constructed for the entire Southern California coastal zone, extending 473 km from Point Conception to the Mexican border. The goal was to integrate the most recent, high-resolution datasets available (for example, Light Detection and Ranging (Lidar) topography, multibeam and single beam sonar bathymetry, and Interferometric Synthetic ApertureAuthorsPatrick L. Barnard, Daniel HooverThe framework of a coastal hazards model: A tool for predicting the impact of severe storms
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California (Jones and others, 2007) is a five-year project (FY2007-FY2011) integrating multiple USGS research activities with the needs of external partners, such as emergency managers and land-use planners, to produce products and information that can be used to create more disaster-resilient communities. The hazardAuthorsPatrick L. Barnard, Bill O'Reilly, Maarten van Ormondt, Edwin Elias, Peter Ruggiero, Li H. Erikson, Cheryl Hapke, Brian D. Collins, Robert T. Guza, Peter N. Adams, Julie Thomas - Web Tools
Below are web applications and the larger, published data releases associated with this project. The larger data releases contain many models, projections, and data subsets.
- News
Below are news stories associated with this project.
Filter Total Items: 19 - Partners
Below are partners associated with this project.
Filter Total Items: 14