Probabilistic Forecasting of Earthquakes, Tsunamis, and Earthquake Effects in the Coastal Zone Active
The nation's coastlines are vulnerable to the interrelated hazards posed by earthquakes, landslides, and tsunamis. In the marine environment these events often occur in concert, and distant triggers can cause severe local effects, making the issue global in scope. As the population continues to migrate toward the coastlines, the social impacts of these hazards are expected to grow.
Products are aimed for use in regional multi-hazard assessments, and might range from complete assessments to analysis tools, interpreted data, or models. We are interacting with groups tasked with making formal hazard assessments and have provided products needed by them in a timely manner (e.g., Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP)). These collaborations will continue to be a major guiding influence, and we plan to maintain research flexibility needed for proper response as necessary. As such, the task is defined thematically. The larger community will help to establish guidelines on regions in which we will we work.
Research Web Sites
Tsunami and Earthquake Research
This site provides general information about how earthquakes generate tsunamis, as well as descriptions and animations of historical tsunamis, virtual reality models showing how tsunamis change as they approach and bounce off coastlines, and summaries of past fieldwork in areas struck by major tsunamis.
Earthquake Hazards Program
We work closely with scientists in the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program, with the goal of providing relevant scientific information to reduce deaths, injuries, and property damage from earthquakes.
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP)
We collaborate with groups that make formal hazard assessments, such as the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP), providing and evaluating the latest scientific information. This site presents the most recent collaborative earthquake forecasts for all of California.
Global Geoengineering Research
The Coastal and Marine Geology geoengineering group investigates the causes of ground deformation and ground failures—such as landslides and liquefaction—that result from earthquakes, storms, and wave action.
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Below are publications associated with this project.
Book review: Rogue waves in the ocean
The May 2005 eruption of Fernandina volcano, Galápagos: The first circumferential dike intrusion observed by GPS and InSAR
No correlation between Anderson Reservoir stage level and underlying Calaveras fault seismicity despite calculated differential stress increases
Book review: Nonlinear ocean waves and the inverse scattering transform
Retesting of liquefaction and nonliquefaction case histories from the 1976 Tangshan earthquake
Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence
A case study of alternative site response explanatory variables in Parkfield, California
Multiscale site-response mapping: A case study of Parkfield, California
Absence of remotely triggered large earthquakes beyond the mainshock region
Diffuse Pacific-North American plate boundary: 1000 km of dextral shear inferred from modeling geodetic data
The 2007 M5.4 Alum Rock, California, earthquake: Implications for future earthquakes on the central and southern Calaveras Fault
Program and abstracts of the Second Tsunami Source Workshop; July 19-20, 2010
Below are news stories associated with this project.
Below are FAQ associated with this project.
- Overview
The nation's coastlines are vulnerable to the interrelated hazards posed by earthquakes, landslides, and tsunamis. In the marine environment these events often occur in concert, and distant triggers can cause severe local effects, making the issue global in scope. As the population continues to migrate toward the coastlines, the social impacts of these hazards are expected to grow.
Products are aimed for use in regional multi-hazard assessments, and might range from complete assessments to analysis tools, interpreted data, or models. We are interacting with groups tasked with making formal hazard assessments and have provided products needed by them in a timely manner (e.g., Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP)). These collaborations will continue to be a major guiding influence, and we plan to maintain research flexibility needed for proper response as necessary. As such, the task is defined thematically. The larger community will help to establish guidelines on regions in which we will we work.
Research Web Sites
Tsunami and Earthquake Research
This site provides general information about how earthquakes generate tsunamis, as well as descriptions and animations of historical tsunamis, virtual reality models showing how tsunamis change as they approach and bounce off coastlines, and summaries of past fieldwork in areas struck by major tsunamis.Earthquake Hazards Program
We work closely with scientists in the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program, with the goal of providing relevant scientific information to reduce deaths, injuries, and property damage from earthquakes.Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP)
We collaborate with groups that make formal hazard assessments, such as the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP), providing and evaluating the latest scientific information. This site presents the most recent collaborative earthquake forecasts for all of California.Global Geoengineering Research
The Coastal and Marine Geology geoengineering group investigates the causes of ground deformation and ground failures—such as landslides and liquefaction—that result from earthquakes, storms, and wave action. - Science
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
- Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Filter Total Items: 115Book review: Rogue waves in the ocean
Rogue Waves in the Ocean (2009) is a follow-on text to Extreme Ocean Waves (2008) edited by Pelinovsky and Kharif, both published by Springer. Unlike the earlier text, which is a compilation of papers on a variety of extreme waves that was the subject of a scientific conference in 2007, Rogues Waves in the Ocean is written, rather than edited, by Kharif, Pelinovsky, and Slunyaev and is focused onAuthorsEric L. GeistThe May 2005 eruption of Fernandina volcano, Galápagos: The first circumferential dike intrusion observed by GPS and InSAR
The May 2005 eruption of Fernandina volcano, Galápagos, occurred along circumferential fissures parallel to the caldera rim and fed lava flows down the steep southwestern slope of the volcano for several weeks. This was the first circumferential dike intrusion ever observed by both InSAR and GPS measurements and thus provides an opportunity to determine the subsurface geometry of these enigmatic sAuthorsW.W. Chadwick, Sigurjon Jonsson, Dennis J. Geist, Michael P. Poland, Daniel J. Johnson, S. Batt, Karen S. Harpp, A. RuizNo correlation between Anderson Reservoir stage level and underlying Calaveras fault seismicity despite calculated differential stress increases
Concerns have been raised that stresses from reservoir impoundment may trigger damaging earthquakes because rate changes have been associated with reservoir impoundment or stage-level changes globally. Here, the idea is tested blindly using Anderson Reservoir, which lies atop the seismically active Calaveras fault. The only knowledge held by the author going into the study was the expectation thatAuthorsT. ParsonsBook review: Nonlinear ocean waves and the inverse scattering transform
Nonlinear Ocean Waves and the Inverse Scattering Transform is a comprehensive examination of ocean waves built upon the theory of nonlinear Fourier analysis. The renowned author, Alfred R. Osborne, is perhaps best known for the discovery of internal solitons in the Andaman Sea during the 1970s. In this book, he provides an extensive treatment of nonlinear water waves based on a nonlinear spectrAuthorsEric L. GeistRetesting of liquefaction and nonliquefaction case histories from the 1976 Tangshan earthquake
A field investigation was performed to retest liquefaction and nonliquefaction sites from the 1976 Tangshan earthquake in China. These sites were carefully investigated in 1978 and 1979 by using standard penetration test (SPT) and cone penetration test (CPT) equipment; however, the CPT measurements are obsolete because of the now nonstandard cone that was used at the time. In 2007, a modern cone wAuthorsR.E.S. Moss, R. E. Kayen, L.-Y. Tong, S.-Y. Liu, G.-J. Cai, J. WuAssessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence
The global catalogue of tsunami events is examined to determine if transient variations in tsunami rates are consistent with a Poisson process commonly assumed for tsunami hazard assessments. The primary data analyzed are tsunamis with maximum sizes >1m. The record of these tsunamis appears to be complete since approximately 1890. A secondary data set of tsunamis >0.1m is also analyzed that appearAuthorsE.L. Geist, T. ParsonsA case study of alternative site response explanatory variables in Parkfield, California
The combination of densely-spaced strong-motion stations in Parkfield, California, and spectral analysis of surface waves (SASW) profiles provides an ideal dataset for assessing the accuracy of different site response explanatory variables. We judge accuracy in terms of spatial coverage and correlation with observations. The performance of the alternative models is period-dependent, but generallyAuthorsE.M. Thompson, L.G. Baise, R. E. Kayen, E.C. Morgan, J. KaklamanosMultiscale site-response mapping: A case study of Parkfield, California
The scale of previously proposed methods for mapping site-response ranges from global coverage down to individual urban regions. Typically, spatial coverage and accuracy are inversely related.We use the densely spaced strong-motion stations in Parkfield, California, to estimate the accuracy of different site-response mapping methods and demonstrate a method for integrating multiple site-response eAuthorsE.M. Thompson, L.G. Baise, R. E. Kayen, E.C. Morgan, J. KaklamanosAbsence of remotely triggered large earthquakes beyond the mainshock region
Large earthquakes are known to trigger earthquakes elsewhere. Damaging large aftershocks occur close to the mainshock and microearthquakes are triggered by passing seismic waves at significant distances from the mainshock. It is unclear, however, whether bigger, more damaging earthquakes are routinely triggered at distances far from the mainshock, heightening the global seismic hazard after everyAuthorsT. Parsons, A.A. VelascoDiffuse Pacific-North American plate boundary: 1000 km of dextral shear inferred from modeling geodetic data
Geodetic measurements tell us that the eastern part of the Basin and Range Province expands in an east-west direction relative to stable North America, whereas the western part of the province moves to the northwest. We develop three-dimensional finite element representations of the western United States lithosphere in an effort to understand the global positioning system (GPS) signal. The modelsAuthorsT. Parsons, W. ThatcherThe 2007 M5.4 Alum Rock, California, earthquake: Implications for future earthquakes on the central and southern Calaveras Fault
[1] The similarity of seismograms recorded by two seismic stations demonstrate that the 31 October 2007 moment magnitude M5.4 Alum Rock earthquake is a repeat of a 1955 ML5.5 earthquake. Both occurred on Oppenheimer et al.'s (1990) Zone V “stuck patch” on the central Calaveras fault, providing new support for their model of Calaveras fault earthquake activity. We suggest that Zone V fails only inAuthorsDavid H. Oppenheimer, William H. Bakun, Tom Parsons, Robert W. Simpson, John Boatwright, R. A. UhrhammerProgram and abstracts of the Second Tsunami Source Workshop; July 19-20, 2010
In response to a request by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for computing tsunami propagations in the western Pacific, Eric Geist asked Willie Lee for assistance in providing parameters of earthquakes which may be future tsunami sources. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Tsunami Source Working Group (TSWG) was initiated in August 2005. An ad hoc group of diverse expertisAuthorsW.H.K. Lee, S. H. Kirby, M. F. Diggles - News
Below are news stories associated with this project.
- FAQ
Below are FAQ associated with this project.