Tsunami Hazards, Modeling, and the Sedimentary Record Active
The December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami
Initial Findings on Tsunami Sand Deposits, Damage, and Inundation in Sri Lanka
Searching for Evidence of Past Tsunamis in Sediment Cores
Scientists can use evidence of past tsunamis to understand how tsunamis behave and assess the hazards they pose to coastal communities
Basic research to develop the geologic record of paleotsunamis and improve the ability to interpret that record is needed to mitigate tsunami risk in the U.S.
Sediment Studies after Tsunamis
The March 11, 2011 Japan Tsunami
International Tsunami Survey Team visits Japan in May 2011
On March 11, 2011 a magnitude 9.1 “great” earthquake off the east coast of Japan generated a Pacific-wide tsunami that was catastrophic along the coast of northeastern Honshu, Japan. The first tsunami wave arrived at the Honshu coastline nearest to the epicenter within about 15 minutes of the earthquake with subsequent waves arriving in the hours that followed, in places 10m or more in height. Entire communities were flooded by the waves and substantial infrastructure was damaged.
Survey Team visits Samoa and American Samoa October-November 2009
On September 29, 2009, an M 8.1 earthquake in the Samoa Islands region of the South Pacific Ocean caused a tsunami that resulted in 100's of lost lives. A rapid-response team of USGS scientists traveled to the Samoa Islands in October-November 2009 to collect time-sensitive data that would have been quickly degraded or destroyed by recovery activity and natural processes.
The December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami
Initial Findings on Tsunami Sand Deposits, Damage, and Inundation in Sri Lanka
Based on Survey Conducted January 9-15, 2005
From January 9-15, a multi-national team of scientists visited Sri Lanka to document the effects of the tsunami and provide government officials a summary of preliminary results of the surveys. This was the third group that documented the tsunami in Sri Lanka.
The 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami: Initial Findings from Sumatra
Based on Survey Conducted January 20-29, 2005
An International Tsunami Survey Team (ITST) studying the effects of the December 26 tsunami on Indonesia's island of Sumatra documented wave heights of 20 to 30 m (65 to 100 ft) at the island's northwest end and found evidence suggesting that wave heights may have ranged from 15 to 30 m (50 to 100 ft) along at least a 100-km (60 mi) stretch of the northwest coast.
Preliminary Analysis of Sedimentary Deposits from the June 23, 2001 Peru Tsunami
Shortly after the tsunami, a multi-national team of scientists visited Peru to document the effects of the tsunami. This group is referred to as the first International Tsunami Survey Team (1st ITST). In early September, a second group of scientists from the United States and Peru cooperated in a study of sediment deposited by the tsunami. The group included researchers from the United States Geological Survey USGS), la Dirección de Hidrografía y Navegación de la Marina de Guerra del Perú (DHN), Instituto Geofísico del Perú (IGP), Instituto Geologico, Minero y Metalurgico (INGEMMET), University of California, Santa Cruz (UCSC), University of Southern California (USC) and University of San Agustin (UNSA). This report contains photographs from the September trip, as well as some prelimary results and conclusions.
Preliminary Analysis of Sedimentary Deposits from the July 17, 1998 Papua New Guinea Tsunami
On July 17, 1998 a magnitude 7.6 earthquake was followed by a series of catastrophic tsunami waves that devastated several villages on the north coast of Papua New Guinea (PNG). Within a few weeks of the devastating tsunami, a multi-national team of scientists and engineers from Japan, the United States, Australia, and New Zealand entered the region installing seismographs, measuring water levels, and interviewing eyewitnesses.
Soon after the first team returned, a second group of international scientists became organized to retrieve the seismographs, collect more water-level and velocity data, assess damage to buildings and structures, and to examine the sediments left behind by the tsunami. The 2nd ITST arrived in Aitape, Papua New Guinea on September 29, 1998 and included representatives from Japan, the United States, Korea, and Papua New Guinea. This web page describes the efforts of the USGS scientists who participated in the 2nd ITST.
Our Research
The 11 March 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami underscores that the U.S. is at risk from a deadly, devastating tsunami. The extent of risk is not known. However, the 2009 Samoa tsunami, geologic evidence in the Pacific Northwest and to a lesser degree the Caribbean, historical records in Hawaii, and Alaska, and modeling studies for California and the U.S. East Coast, all indicate that there is significant risk to the US from tsunamis. The effect of a tsunami at a coast, and the resulting risk, is the result of processes that control its generation, propagation, and inundation. Although potential tsunami sources (e.g., underwater earthquakes, landslides) can be identified, it is difficult, if not impossible, to predict with any certainty the largest possible tsunami that will impact an area based solely on current knowledge of source character and tsunami generating capacity. This is borne out by the 11 March 2011 tsunami that was larger in many regions in Japan than the largest historical or predicted tsunami. However, the geologic record did portend that a mega-tsunami would hit eastern Japan. The geologic record revealed that on average every 1000 years a mega-tsunami similar to the one on 11 March hits northeastern Japan.
Basic research to develop the geologic record of paleotsunamis and improve the ability to interpret that record is needed to mitigate tsunami risk in the U.S.
Objectives
The objectives of this project are to improve understanding of tsunamis, to develop techniques to assess the threat they pose, and to develop the paleotsunami record using sedimentary deposits. See tasks for specific research objectives.
What could be more relevant than research that can save lives? This project does exactly that by increasing the understanding of tsunami hazard in the U.S. This understanding informs mitigation of tsunami hazard in numerous ways including allowing development and refinement of evacuation plans, coastal zoning, and tsunami education.
Approach
Our strategy is to apply knowledge and skill gained from past USGS tsunami projects to paleotsunami deposit studies in locations with a known, but not well defined, tsunami hazard. Because the ability to identify and interpret paleotsunami deposits is still an emerging science, by necessity our approach includes targeted studies that develop methods for utilizing tsunami deposits in hazard assessment. These studies increase the value of the location-based paleotsunami studies. The locations of the paleotsunami studies are driven primarily by tsunami hazard potential, but also partially by opportunities to collaborate with researchers both inside and outside of the USGS. This collaboration leverages USGS resources and expertise. Paleotsunami studies will be phased, with initial investigations and more detailed, focused investigations in areas where paleotsunamis deposits are found to assess tsunami hazard. Detailed studies may include tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation modeling and source evaluation components.
Publications associated with this project
Reconstruction of far-field tsunami amplitude distributions from earthquake sources
Unusually large tsunamis frequent a currently creeping part of the Aleutian megathrust
Tsunami recurrence in the eastern Alaska-Aleutian arc: A Holocene stratigraphic record from Chirikof Island, Alaska
Stratigraphic and microfossil evidence for a 4500-year history of Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes and tsunamis at Yaquina River estuary, Oregon, USA
Tsunami geology in paleoseismology
Improving tsunami resiliency: California's Tsunami Policy Working Group
The search for geologic evidence of distant-source tsunamis using new field data in California
The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario
The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario
The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California
Geomorphic and stratigraphic evidence for an unusual tsunami or storm a few centuries ago at Anegada, British Virgin Islands
Inland fields of dispersed cobbles and boulders as evidence for a tsunami on Anegada, British Virgin Islands
Time-dependent onshore tsunami response
Read the news about our work
- Overview
Basic research to develop the geologic record of paleotsunamis and improve the ability to interpret that record is needed to mitigate tsunami risk in the U.S.
Sediment Studies after Tsunamis
The March 11, 2011 Japan Tsunami
International Tsunami Survey Team visits Japan in May 2011
On March 11, 2011 a magnitude 9.1 “great” earthquake off the east coast of Japan generated a Pacific-wide tsunami that was catastrophic along the coast of northeastern Honshu, Japan. The first tsunami wave arrived at the Honshu coastline nearest to the epicenter within about 15 minutes of the earthquake with subsequent waves arriving in the hours that followed, in places 10m or more in height. Entire communities were flooded by the waves and substantial infrastructure was damaged.
Survey Team visits Samoa and American Samoa October-November 2009
On September 29, 2009, an M 8.1 earthquake in the Samoa Islands region of the South Pacific Ocean caused a tsunami that resulted in 100's of lost lives. A rapid-response team of USGS scientists traveled to the Samoa Islands in October-November 2009 to collect time-sensitive data that would have been quickly degraded or destroyed by recovery activity and natural processes.
The December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami
Initial Findings on Tsunami Sand Deposits, Damage, and Inundation in Sri Lanka
Based on Survey Conducted January 9-15, 2005From January 9-15, a multi-national team of scientists visited Sri Lanka to document the effects of the tsunami and provide government officials a summary of preliminary results of the surveys. This was the third group that documented the tsunami in Sri Lanka.
The 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami: Initial Findings from Sumatra
Based on Survey Conducted January 20-29, 2005An International Tsunami Survey Team (ITST) studying the effects of the December 26 tsunami on Indonesia's island of Sumatra documented wave heights of 20 to 30 m (65 to 100 ft) at the island's northwest end and found evidence suggesting that wave heights may have ranged from 15 to 30 m (50 to 100 ft) along at least a 100-km (60 mi) stretch of the northwest coast.
Preliminary Analysis of Sedimentary Deposits from the June 23, 2001 Peru Tsunami
Shortly after the tsunami, a multi-national team of scientists visited Peru to document the effects of the tsunami. This group is referred to as the first International Tsunami Survey Team (1st ITST). In early September, a second group of scientists from the United States and Peru cooperated in a study of sediment deposited by the tsunami. The group included researchers from the United States Geological Survey USGS), la Dirección de Hidrografía y Navegación de la Marina de Guerra del Perú (DHN), Instituto Geofísico del Perú (IGP), Instituto Geologico, Minero y Metalurgico (INGEMMET), University of California, Santa Cruz (UCSC), University of Southern California (USC) and University of San Agustin (UNSA). This report contains photographs from the September trip, as well as some prelimary results and conclusions.
Preliminary Analysis of Sedimentary Deposits from the July 17, 1998 Papua New Guinea Tsunami
On July 17, 1998 a magnitude 7.6 earthquake was followed by a series of catastrophic tsunami waves that devastated several villages on the north coast of Papua New Guinea (PNG). Within a few weeks of the devastating tsunami, a multi-national team of scientists and engineers from Japan, the United States, Australia, and New Zealand entered the region installing seismographs, measuring water levels, and interviewing eyewitnesses.
Soon after the first team returned, a second group of international scientists became organized to retrieve the seismographs, collect more water-level and velocity data, assess damage to buildings and structures, and to examine the sediments left behind by the tsunami. The 2nd ITST arrived in Aitape, Papua New Guinea on September 29, 1998 and included representatives from Japan, the United States, Korea, and Papua New Guinea. This web page describes the efforts of the USGS scientists who participated in the 2nd ITST.
Our Research
The 11 March 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami underscores that the U.S. is at risk from a deadly, devastating tsunami. The extent of risk is not known. However, the 2009 Samoa tsunami, geologic evidence in the Pacific Northwest and to a lesser degree the Caribbean, historical records in Hawaii, and Alaska, and modeling studies for California and the U.S. East Coast, all indicate that there is significant risk to the US from tsunamis. The effect of a tsunami at a coast, and the resulting risk, is the result of processes that control its generation, propagation, and inundation. Although potential tsunami sources (e.g., underwater earthquakes, landslides) can be identified, it is difficult, if not impossible, to predict with any certainty the largest possible tsunami that will impact an area based solely on current knowledge of source character and tsunami generating capacity. This is borne out by the 11 March 2011 tsunami that was larger in many regions in Japan than the largest historical or predicted tsunami. However, the geologic record did portend that a mega-tsunami would hit eastern Japan. The geologic record revealed that on average every 1000 years a mega-tsunami similar to the one on 11 March hits northeastern Japan.
Basic research to develop the geologic record of paleotsunamis and improve the ability to interpret that record is needed to mitigate tsunami risk in the U.S.
Objectives
The objectives of this project are to improve understanding of tsunamis, to develop techniques to assess the threat they pose, and to develop the paleotsunami record using sedimentary deposits. See tasks for specific research objectives.
What could be more relevant than research that can save lives? This project does exactly that by increasing the understanding of tsunami hazard in the U.S. This understanding informs mitigation of tsunami hazard in numerous ways including allowing development and refinement of evacuation plans, coastal zoning, and tsunami education.
Approach
Our strategy is to apply knowledge and skill gained from past USGS tsunami projects to paleotsunami deposit studies in locations with a known, but not well defined, tsunami hazard. Because the ability to identify and interpret paleotsunami deposits is still an emerging science, by necessity our approach includes targeted studies that develop methods for utilizing tsunami deposits in hazard assessment. These studies increase the value of the location-based paleotsunami studies. The locations of the paleotsunami studies are driven primarily by tsunami hazard potential, but also partially by opportunities to collaborate with researchers both inside and outside of the USGS. This collaboration leverages USGS resources and expertise. Paleotsunami studies will be phased, with initial investigations and more detailed, focused investigations in areas where paleotsunamis deposits are found to assess tsunami hazard. Detailed studies may include tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation modeling and source evaluation components.
- Data
- Publications
Publications associated with this project
Filter Total Items: 59Reconstruction of far-field tsunami amplitude distributions from earthquake sources
The probability distribution of far-field tsunami amplitudes is explained in relation to the distribution of seismic moment at subduction zones. Tsunami amplitude distributions at tide gauge stations follow a similar functional form, well described by a tapered Pareto distribution that is parameterized by a power-law exponent and a corner amplitude. Distribution parameters are first established foAuthorsEric L. Geist, Thomas E. ParsonsUnusually large tsunamis frequent a currently creeping part of the Aleutian megathrust
Current models used to assess earthquake and tsunami hazards are inadequate where creep dominates a subduction megathrust. Here we report geological evidence for large tsunamis, occurring on average every 300–340 years, near the source areas of the 1946 and 1957 Aleutian tsunamis. These areas bookend a postulated seismic gap over 200 km long where modern geodetic measurements indicate that the megAuthorsRobert C. Witter, G. A. Carver, Richard W. Briggs, Guy R. Gelfenbaum, R.D. Koehler, SeanPaul M. La Selle, Adrian M. Bender, S.E. Engelhart, E. Hemphill-Haley, Troy D. HillTsunami recurrence in the eastern Alaska-Aleutian arc: A Holocene stratigraphic record from Chirikof Island, Alaska
Despite the role of the Alaska-Aleutian megathrust as the source of some of the largest earthquakes and tsunamis, the history of its pre–twentieth century tsunamis is largely unknown west of the rupture zone of the great (magnitude, M 9.2) 1964 earthquake. Stratigraphy in core transects at two boggy lowland sites on Chirikof Island’s southwest coast preserves tsunami deposits dating from the postgAuthorsAlan R. Nelson, Richard W. Briggs, Tina Dura, Simon E. Engelhart, Guy Gelfenbaum, Lee-Ann Bradley, S.L. Forman, Christopher H. Vane, K.A. KelleyStratigraphic and microfossil evidence for a 4500-year history of Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes and tsunamis at Yaquina River estuary, Oregon, USA
The Sallys Bend swamp and marsh area on the central Oregon coast onshore of the Cascadia subduction zone contains a sequence of buried coastal wetland soils that extends back ∼4500 yr B.P. The upper 10 of the 12 soils are represented in multiple cores. Each soil is abruptly overlain by a sandy deposit and then, in most cases, by greater than 10 cm of mud. For eight of the 10 buried soils, times ofAuthorsNicholas A Graehl, Harvey M. Kelsey, Robert C. Witter, Eileen Hemphill-Haley, Simon E. EngelhartTsunami geology in paleoseismology
The 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Tohoku-oki disasters dramatically demonstrated the destructiveness and deadliness of tsunamis. For the assessment of future risk posed by tsunamis it is necessary to understand past tsunami events. Recent work on tsunami deposits has provided new information on paleotsunami events, including their recurrence interval and the size of the tsunamis (e.g. [187–189]). TsuAuthorsYuichi Nishimura, Bruce E. JaffeImproving tsunami resiliency: California's Tsunami Policy Working Group
California has established a Tsunami Policy Working Group to facilitate development of policy recommendations for tsunami hazard mitigation. The Tsunami Policy Working Group brings together government and industry specialists from diverse fields including tsunami, seismic, and flood hazards, local and regional planning, structural engineering, natural hazard policy, and coastal engineering. The grAuthorsCharles R. Real, Laurie Johnson, Lucile M. Jones, Stephanie L. RossThe search for geologic evidence of distant-source tsunamis using new field data in California
A statewide assessment for geological evidence of tsunamis, primarily from distant-source events, found tsunami deposits at several locations, though evidence was absent at most locations evaluated. Several historical distant-source tsunamis, including the 1946 Aleutian, 1960 Chile, and 1964 Alaska events, caused inundation along portions of the northern and central California coast. Recent numeriAuthorsRick Wilson, Eileen Hemphill-Haley, Bruce Jaffe, Bruce Richmond, Robert Peters, Nick Graehl, Harvey Kelsey, Robert Leeper, Steve Watt, Mary McGann, Don F. Hoirup, Catherine Chagué-Goff, James Goff, Dylan Caldwell, Casey LoofbourrowThe SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario
The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey (CGS), the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OESThe SAFRR Tsunami Scenario
The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California
AuthorsK. Porter, Lucile M. Jones, Stephanie L. Ross, J. Borrero, J. Bwarie, D. Dykstra, Eric L. Geist, L. Johnson, Stephen H. Kirby, K. Long, P. Lynett, K. Miller, Carl E. Mortensen, S. Perry, G. Plumlee, C. Real, L. Ritchie, C. Scawthorn, H.K. Thio, Anne Wein, P. Whitmore, R. Wilson, Nathan J. WoodGeomorphic and stratigraphic evidence for an unusual tsunami or storm a few centuries ago at Anegada, British Virgin Islands
Waters from the Atlantic Ocean washed southward across parts of Anegada, east-northeast of Puerto Rico, during a singular event a few centuries ago. The overwash, after crossing a fringing coral reef and 1.5 km of shallow subtidal flats, cut dozens of breaches through sandy beach ridges, deposited a sheet of sand and shell capped with lime mud, and created inland fields of cobbles and boulders. MoAuthorsBrian F. Atwater, Uri S. ten Brink, Mark Buckley, Robert S. Halley, Bruce E. Jaffe, Alberto M. López-Venegas, Eduard G. Reinhardt, Maritia P. Tuttle, Steve Watt, Yong WeiInland fields of dispersed cobbles and boulders as evidence for a tsunami on Anegada, British Virgin Islands
Marine overwash from the north a few centuries ago transported hundreds of angular cobbles and boulders tens to hundreds of meters southward from limestone outcrops in the interior of Anegada, 140 km east–northeast of Puerto Rico. We examined two of several cobble and boulder fields as part of an effort to interpret whether the overwash resulted from a tsunami or a storm in a location where both eAuthorsBruce E. Jaffe, Steve Watt, Mark BuckleyTime-dependent onshore tsunami response
While bulk measures of the onshore impact of a tsunami, including the maximum run-up elevation and inundation distance, are important for hazard planning, the temporal evolution of the onshore flow dynamics likely controls the extent of the onshore destruction and the erosion and deposition of sediment that occurs. However, the time-varying dynamics of actual tsunamis are even more difficult to meAuthorsAlex Apotsos, Guy R. Gelfenbaum, Bruce E. Jaffe - News
Read the news about our work