John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis

Publications

Filter Total Items: 164
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Year Published: 2018

Towards coordinated regional multi-satellite InSAR volcano observations: Results from the Latin America pilot project

Within Latin America, about 319 volcanoes have been active in the Holocene, but 202 of these volcanoes have no seismic, deformation or gas monitoring. Following the 2012 Santorini Report on satellite Earth Observation and Geohazards, the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) developed a 4-year pilot project (2013-2017) to demonstrate...

Pritchard, Matthew; Biggs, Juliet; Wauthier, Christelle; Sansosti, Eugenio; Arnold, David W. D.; Delgado, Francisco; Ebmeier, Susanna; Henderson, Scott; Stephens, Kristen; Cooper, C.; Wnuk, Kendall; Amelung, Falk; Aguilar, Victor Rivera; Mothes, Patricia; Macedo, Orlando; Lara, Luis E.; Poland, Michael P.; Zoffoli, Simona

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Year Published: 2018

Candidate products for operational earthquake forecasting illustrated using the HayWired planning scenario, including one very quick (and not‐so‐dirty) hazard‐map option

In an effort to help address debates on the usefulness of operational earthquake forecasting (OEF), we illustrate a number of OEF products that could be automatically generated in near‐real time. To exemplify, we use an M">M 7.1 mainshock on the Hayward fault, which is very similar to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) HayWired earthquake...

Field, Edward H.; Milner, Kevin R.
Field, E. H. and K. R. Milner (2018). Candidate Products for Operational Earthquake Forecasting Illustrated Using the HayWired Planning Scenario, Including One Very Quick (and Not‐So‐Dirty) Hazard‐Map Option, Seismological Research Letters, 89, 1420-1434, doi:10.1785/0220170241

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Year Published: 2018

A framework for identifying and characterising coral reef “oases” against a backdrop of degradation

Human activities have led to widespread ecological decline; however, the severity of degradation is spatially heterogeneous due to some locations resisting, escaping, or rebounding from disturbances.We developed a framework for identifying oases within coral reef regions using long‐term monitoring data. We calculated standardised estimates of...

Guest, James R.; Edmunds, Peter J.; Gates, Ruth D.; Kuffner, Ilsa B.; Andersson, Andreas J; Barnes, Brian B.; Chollett, Iliana; Courtney, Travis A.; Elahi, Robin; Gross, Kevin; Lenz, Elizabeth A.; Mitarai, Satoshi; Mumby, Peter J.; Nelson, Hannah R.; Parker, Britt A.; Putnam, Hollie M.; Rogers, Caroline S.; Toth, Lauren T.

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Year Published: 2018

Quantifying ecosystem service flows at multiple scales across the range of a long-distance migratory species

Migratory species provide ecosystem goods and services throughout their annual cycles, often over long distances. Designing effective conservation solutions for migratory species requires knowledge of both species ecology and the socioeconomic context of their migrations. We present a framework built around the concept that migratory species act...

Semmens, Darius J.; Diffendorfer, James E.; Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Oberhauser, Karen; Ries, Leslie; Semmens, Brice X.; Goldstein, Joshua; Loomis, John B.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Mattsson, Brady J.; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura

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Year Published: 2018

Placing the Common Era in a Holocene context: Millennial to centennial patterns and trends in the hydroclimate of North America over the past 2000 years

A synthesis of 93 hydrologic records from across North and Central America, and adjacent tropical and Arctic islands, reveals centennial to millennial trends in the regional hydroclimates of the Common Era (CE; past 2000 years). The hydrological records derive from materials stored in lakes, bogs, caves, and ice from extant glaciers, which have...

Shuman, Bryan; Routson, Cody C.; McKay, Nicholas P.; Fritz, Sherilyn; Kaufman, Darrell S.; Kirby, Matthew; Nolan, Connor; Pederson, Gregory T.; St. Jacques, Jeannine-Marie
Shuman, B. N., Routson, C., McKay, N., Fritz, S., Kaufman, D., Kirby, M. E., Nolan, C., Pederson, G. T., and St-Jacques, J.-M.: Placing the Common Era in a Holocene context: millennial to centennial patterns and trends in the hydroclimate of North America over the past 2000 years, Clim. Past, 14, 665-686, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-665-2018, 2018.

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Year Published: 2018

Functional group, biomass, and climate change effects on ecological drought in semiarid grasslands

Water relations in plant communities are influenced both by contrasting functional groups (grasses, shrubs) and by climate change via complex effects on interception, uptake and transpiration. We modelled the effects of functional group replacement and biomass increase, both of which can be outcomes of invasion and vegetation management, and...

Wilson, Scott D.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, William K.; Duniway, Michael C.; Hall, Sonia A.; Jamiyansharav, Khishigbayar; Jia, Gensuo; Lkhagva, Ariuntsetseg; Munson, Seth M.; Pyke, David A.; Tietjen, Britta
Wilson, S.D., Schlaepfer, D.R., Bradford, J.B., Lauenroth, W.K., Duniway, M.C., Hall, S.A., Jamiyansharav, K., Jia, G., Lkhagva, A., Munson, S.M., Pyke, D.A., Tietjen, B., 2018, Functional group, biomass, and climate change effects on ecological drought in semiarid grasslands: Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences, p. online, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JG004173.

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Year Published: 2018

Overcoming equifinality: Leveraging long time series for stream metabolism estimation

The foundational ecosystem processes of gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) cannot be measured directly but can be modeled in aquatic ecosystems from subdaily patterns of oxygen (O2) concentrations. Because rivers and streams constantly exchange O2 with the atmosphere, models must either use empirical estimates of...

Appling, Alison P.; Hall, Robert O.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Arroita, Maite

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Year Published: 2018

Beyond clay: Towards an improved set of variables for predicting soil organic matter content

Improved quantification of the factors controlling soil organic matter (SOM) stabilization at continental to global scales is needed to inform projections of the largest actively cycling terrestrial carbon pool on Earth, and its response to environmental change. Biogeochemical models rely almost exclusively on clay content to modify rates of SOM...

Rasmussen, Craig; Heckman, Katherine; Wieder, William R.; Keiluweit, Marco; Lawrence, Corey R.; Berhe, Asmeret Asefaw; Blankinship, Joseph C.; Crow, Susan E.; Druhan, Jennifer; Hicks Pries, Caitlin E.; Marin-Spiotta, Erika; Plante, Alain F.; Schadel, Christina; Schmiel, Joshua P.; Sierra, Carlos A.; Thompson, Aaron; Wagai, Rota
Rasmussen C., Heckman K., Wieder W.R., Keiluweit M., Lawrence C.R., Berhe A.A., Blankinship J.C., Crow S.E., Druhan J.L., Hicks Pries C.E., Marin-Spiotta E., Plante A.F., Schädel C., Schimel J.P., Sierra C.A., Thompson A., Wagai R. (2018): Beyond clay: towards an improved set of variables for predicting soil organic matter content. Biogeochemistry (online). DOI: 10.1007/s10533-018-0424-3

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Year Published: 2018

Iterative near-term ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges

Two foundational questions about sustainability are “How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?” and “How do human decisions affect these trajectories?” Answering these questions requires an ability to forecast ecological processes. Unfortunately, most ecological forecasts focus on centennial-scale climate...

Dietze, Mike; Fox, Andrew; Beck-Johnson, Lindsay; Betancourt, Julio L.; Hooten, Mevin; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Keitt, Timothy H.; Kenney, Melissa A.; Laney, Christine M.; Larsen, Laurel G.; Loescher, Henry W.; Lunch, Claire K.; Pijanowski, Bryan; Randerson, James T.; Read, Emily; Tredennick, Andrew T.; Vargas, Rodrigo; Weathers, Kathleen C.; White, Ethan P.
Dietze M.C., A. Fox, J. Betancourt, M. Hooten, C. Jarnevich, T. Keitt, M. A. Kenney, C. Laney, L. Larsen, H. W. Loescher, C. Lunch, B. Pijanowski, J. T. Randerson, E. Read, A. Tredennick, K. C. Weathers, E. P. White. 2018. Iterative near-term ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges. PNAS Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1710231115.

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Year Published: 2018

The metabolic regimes of flowing waters

The processes and biomass that characterize any ecosystem are fundamentally constrained by the total amount of energy that is either fixed within or delivered across its boundaries. Ultimately, ecosystems may be understood and classified by their rates of total and net productivity and by the seasonal patterns of photosynthesis and respiration....

Bernhardt, Emily S.; Heffernan, Jim B.; Grimm, Nancy B.; Stanley, Emily H.; Harvey, Judson; Arroita, M.; Appling, Alison P.; Cohen, M.J.; McDowell, William H.; Hall, R.O.; Read, Jordan S.; Roberts, B.J.; Stets, Edward G.; Yackulic, Charles B.

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Year Published: 2018

Estimating restorable wetland water storage at landscape scales

Globally, hydrologic modifications such as ditching and subsurface drainage have significantly reduced wetland water storage capacity (i.e., volume of surface water a wetland can retain) and consequent wetland functions. While wetland area has been well documented across many landscapes and used to guide restoration efforts, few studies have...

Jones, Charles Nathan; Evenson, Grey R.; McLaughlin, Daniel L.; Vanderhoof, Melanie K.; Lang, Megan W.; McCarty, Greg W.; Golden, Heather E.; Lane, Charles R.; Alexander, Laurie C.
Jones CN, Evenson GR, McLaughlin DL, Vanderhoof MK, Lang MW, McCarty GW, Golden HE, Lane CR, Alexander LC. Estimating restorable wetland water storage at landscape scales. Hydrological Processes. 2018;32:305–313. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11405

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Year Published: 2018

Range position and climate sensitivity: The structure of among-population demographic responses to climatic variation

Species’ distributions will respond to climate change based on the relationship between local demographic processes and climate and how this relationship varies based on range position. A rarely tested demographic prediction is that populations at the extremes of a species’ climate envelope (e.g., populations in areas with the highest mean annual...

Amburgey, Staci M.; Miller, David A. W.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Rittenhouse, Tracy A. G.; Benard, Michael F.; Richardson, Jonathan L.; Urban, Mark C.; Hughson, Ward; Brand, Adrianne B.; Davis, Christopher J.; Hardin, Carmen R.; Paton, Peter W. C.; Raithel, Christopher J.; Relyea, Rick A.; Scott, A. Floyd; Skelly, David K.; Skidds, Dennis E.; Smith, Charles K.; Werner, Earl E.
Amburgey, S. M., Miller, D. A. W., Grant, E. H. C., Rittenhouse, T. A. G., Benard, M. F., Richardson, J. L., Urban, M. C., Hughson, W., Brand, A. B., Davis, C. J., Hardin, C. R., Paton, P. W. C., Raithel, C. J., Relyea, R. A., Scott, A. F., Skelly, D. K., Skidds, D. K., Smith, C. K., and Werner, E. E., 2018, Range position and climate sensitivity: The structure of among-population demographic responses to climatic variation: Global Change Biology, v. 24, no. 1, p. 439-454. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13817