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Hurricane Matthew - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change Completed

By St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center February 1, 2018

Hurricane Matthew coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.

Hurricane Matthew impacted a large portion of the U.S. Southeast coast, from Florida to North Carolina, from October 6-9, 2016. Storm surge reached 0.5 to 2.5 meters above predicted tides. Offshore wave heights in excess of 9 meters were observed near Cape Canaveral, Florida. These large waves contributed an additional 2 to 5 meters of wave runup at the shoreline. The combined effects of surge and storm-induced wave runup created elevated total water levels at the shoreline, causing extensive erosion of the beach and dunes.

 

Response activities included:

  • Forecast of potential coastal change (see next section)

  • Pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change (see galleries below)

  • Qualitative validation of coastal change forecast (USGS Data Release)

  • Oblique aerial photography of the coast from Port St. Lucie, Florida, to Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, collected October 13-15, 2016 (USGS Data Release)

  • Post-storm lidar survey of open coast shoreline from Florida to Virginia

  • Quantitative observations of coastal change (coming soon)

 

Forecast of Potential Coastal Change

The coastal change forecast model predicts the probability of where and how sand dunes along the coast will be impacted by water levels during a storm. This includes the combined effect of surge and wave runup. The color band closest to the shoreline is the probability of dune erosion, the middle color band is the probability that sand dunes will be overtopped by waves during the storm, and the outer color band is the probability that the sand dunes will be completely inundated/flooded. The model forecast is available on the Coastal Change Hazards Portal and more information about the model can be found here: Scenario-Based Assessments for Coastal Change Hazard Forecasts.

 

tential coastal change impacts for Hurricane Matthew - Oct. 7, 2016
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media Details
The Coastal Change Hazards Portal includes the forecacast of potential coastal change impacts for a direct landfall of Hurricane Matthew based on NHC Advisory 037, 0800 AM EDT OCT 07 2016. (Public domain.)

 

Pre-and Post-Storm Photo Comparisons

The photos pairs below show aerial photos taken before and similar imagery taken a few days after Hurricane Matthew's landfall (https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/). The photos show how the coast was impacted by the storm and are used to validate the forecast model.

 

Florida 
Locations of observed coastal change due to Hurricane Matthew (2016) Oblique aerial photographs at Stuart, Florida. Oblique aerial photographs at Kennedy Space Center, Florida Oblique aerial photographs in Flagler Beach, Florida Oblique aerial photographs in St. Augustine, Florida Oblique aerial photographs in Vilano Beach, Florida

 

Georgia 
Locations of observed coastal change in Georgia from Hurricane Matthew Oblique aerial photographs at Cumberland Island, Georgia Oblique aerial photographs at Sea Island, Georgia Oblique aerial photographs at Little St. Simons Island, Georgia Oblique aerial photographs at St. Catherines Island, Georgia Oblique aerial photographs at Ossabaw Island, Georgia

 

South Carolina 
Locations of observed coastal change in SC caused by Hurricane Matthew Oblique aerial photographs at Pritchards Inlet, South Carolina Oblique aerial photographs at Pritchards Island, South Carolina Oblique aerial photographs at Edisto Beach, South Carolina Oblique aerial photographs at Bull Island, South Carolina Oblique aerial photographs at Sand Island, South Carolina Oblique aerial photographs at Atlantic Beach, South Carolina

 

North Carolina 
Locations of observed coastal change in NC caused by Hurricane Matthew Oblique aerial photographs at Kure Beach, North Carolina Oblique aerial photographs at Lea-Hutaff Island, North Carolina Oblique aerial photographs at North Topsail Beach, North Carolina Oblique aerial photographs at Camp Lejeune, North Carolina Oblique aerial photographs at Hatteras, North Carolina Oblique aerial photographs at Kitty Hawk, North Carolina

 

Research is part of the National Assessment of Storm-Induced Coastal Change Hazards project.  

Below are other science projects associated with this project.

link
Oblique aerial photograph near Rodanthe, NC, looking south along the coast on August 30, 2011, three days after landfall of Hurr

Forecasting Coastal Change

This project focuses on understanding the magnitude and variability of extreme storm impacts on sandy beaches. The overall objective is to improve real-time and scenario-based predictions of coastal change to support management of coastal infrastructure, resources, and safety.
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Hurricane Dorian, Hurricane Florence, Hurricane Harvey, Hurricane Irma, Hurricane Jose, Hurricane Maria, Hurricane Matthew, Hurricane Michael, Hurricane Nate, Hurricane Sandy
link

Forecasting Coastal Change

This project focuses on understanding the magnitude and variability of extreme storm impacts on sandy beaches. The overall objective is to improve real-time and scenario-based predictions of coastal change to support management of coastal infrastructure, resources, and safety.
Learn More
link
Photo of a coastal cliff with an apartment building right at the edge of the cliff.

National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards

Research to identify areas that are most vulnerable to coastal change hazards including beach and dune erosion, long-term shoreline change, and sea-level rise.
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center, Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Harvey, Hurricane Irma, Hurricane Jose, Hurricane Maria, Hurricane Matthew, Hurricane Sandy
link

National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards

Research to identify areas that are most vulnerable to coastal change hazards including beach and dune erosion, long-term shoreline change, and sea-level rise.
Learn More

Below are publications associated with this project.

National assessment of hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards: Southeast Atlantic Coast

Beaches serve as a natural barrier between the ocean and inland communities, ecosystems, and natural resources. However, these dynamic environments move and change in response to winds, waves, and currents. During extreme storms, changes to beaches can be large, and the results are sometimes catastrophic. Lives may be lost, communities destroyed, and millions of dollars spent on rebuilding. Durin
Authors
Hilary F. Stockdon, Kara S. Doran, David M. Thompson, Kristin L. Sopkin, Nathaniel G. Plant
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Hurricane Irma, Hurricane Maria, Hurricanes

Below are news stories associated with this project.

Before and After Photos: SE Beach Dunes Lost to Hurricane Matthew

Before and After Photos: SE Beach Dunes Lost to Hurricane Matthew

New low-altitude aerial photos of Southeastern beaches taken before and after Hurricane Matthew passed offshore show a new storm-cut inlet, and roads...

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Post Hurricane Matthew: USGS Continues Efforts to Document How High Floodwaters Reached

Post Hurricane Matthew: USGS Continues Efforts to Document How High Floodwaters Reached

The heavy rains and storm surge Hurricane Matthew produced caused severe flooding in many parts of the south east, resulting in almost 40 peak flood...

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Record Number of USGS Sensors Deployed for Hurricane Matthew

Record Number of USGS Sensors Deployed for Hurricane Matthew

The U.S. Geological Survey is using many forms of technology to track and document Hurricane Matthew’s effects on the eastern seaboard. Here is an in...

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Into the Storm – Hurricane Matthew

Into the Storm – Hurricane Matthew

USGS is engaged in research, monitoring, sampling and coastal change forecasting associated with Hurricane Matthew from Florida north up into Virginia...

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FL, GA, SC Beaches Face 80-95 Percent Chance of Erosion from Hurricane Matthew

FL, GA, SC Beaches Face 80-95 Percent Chance of Erosion from Hurricane Matthew

As the east coast prepares for Hurricane Matthew's arrival, the U.S. Geological Survey uses advanced models to forecast the coastal impacts Matthew...

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