Forecasting Coastal Change Active
This project focuses on understanding the magnitude and variability of extreme storm impacts on sandy beaches. The overall objective is to improve real-time and scenario-based predictions of coastal change to support management of coastal infrastructure, resources, and safety.
Understanding Extreme Storm Impacts on Sandy Beaches
The forecasting coastal change component of the National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project focuses on understanding the magnitude and variability of extreme storm impacts on sandy beaches. The overall objective is to improve real-time and scenario-based predictions of coastal change to support management of coastal infrastructure, resources, and safety.
Our Nation's coastlines are in constant flux through the processes of erosion and deposition. Storms of various types impact the coast further. Hurricanes are more likely to affect the Atlantic and Gulf coast states, while winter storms affect all coastlines throughout the conterminous United States as well as Alaska and Hawaii. The impacts to population, infrastructure, and habitat vary geographically, depending on shoreline type, whether sandy beach, rocky shore, sea cliff, barrier island or wetland.
Storm-Induced Coastal Change
Hurricanes and other extreme storms generate storm surge and large waves, eroding the beach and dune system and reshaping the coastal landscape. Six types of coastal change observed along the coastlines of the United States are: beach erosion, dune erosion, overwash, inundation and island breaching, marsh erosion, and coastal cliff erosion.
Scenario-Based Assessments
Storm-induced water levels, due to both surge and waves, are compared to beach and dune elevations to determine the probabilities of three types of coastal change.
Real-Time Storm Response
Response activities include documenting pre-storm morphology, estimating storm-induced extreme water levels, forecasting storm-specific probabilities of coastal change, measuring post-storm morphology, quantifying storm-induced coastal change, and updating assessments of vulnerabilities to storm-induced coastal erosion.
Operational Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecasts
The USGS is working with the National Weather Service to combine USGS-derived beach morphology and wave predictions from the Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) to provide regional weather offices detailed forecasts of wave-induced water levels. Two pilot study areas are in the testing phase: Duck, North Carolina and Sunset Beach, Florida.
Storm-Induced Coastal Processes
Process studies examine the physical processes at work prior to, during, and following coastal storm events. Understanding the processes involved in coastal landform evolution will improve the accuracy of the assessments of storm-induced coastal change hazards.
West Coast Storm Impacts
We are developing rigorous research tools to understand the physical impacts that climate change and sea-level rise will have on dynamic geologic settings along Pacific and Arctic coasts. This research covers an enormous range of coastal settings: from permafrost coasts, to the Puget Sound estuary, the California coast, and low-lying Pacific atolls.
By understanding the effects of extreme storms, including coastal flooding, changes in the shoreline, and movement of sediment, we can develop better models for understanding long-term vulnerability of sea-level rise in various coastal settings, and help coastal managers and businesses plan for a changing climate. More info: Coastal Climate Impacts and Remote Sensing Coastal Change
Video Remote Sensing of Coastal Processes
Video observations of the coast are used to monitor a range of coastal processes, for example changes in the shoreline position, both seasonally and due to long-term effects such as sea-level rise, and instances of beach and dune erosion during extreme storm events. More info: Video Remote Sensing of Coastal Processes and Remote Sensing Coastal Change
Below are research tasks and science projects associated with this project.
National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
Below are publications associated with this project.
Hindcasting potential hurricane impacts on rapidly changing barrier islands
Impacts of Hurricane Rita on the beaches of western Louisiana
A simple model for the spatially-variable coastal response to hurricanes
Hurricanes 2004: An overview of their characteristics and coastal change
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
Coastal Change Hazards Portal
Interactive access to coastal change science and data for our Nation’s coasts. Information and products are organized within three coastal change hazard themes: 1) extreme storms, 2) shoreline change, and 3) sea-level rise. Displays probabilities of coastal erosion.
Below are news stories associated with this project.
- Overview
This project focuses on understanding the magnitude and variability of extreme storm impacts on sandy beaches. The overall objective is to improve real-time and scenario-based predictions of coastal change to support management of coastal infrastructure, resources, and safety.
Understanding Extreme Storm Impacts on Sandy Beaches
The forecasting coastal change component of the National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project focuses on understanding the magnitude and variability of extreme storm impacts on sandy beaches. The overall objective is to improve real-time and scenario-based predictions of coastal change to support management of coastal infrastructure, resources, and safety.
Our Nation's coastlines are in constant flux through the processes of erosion and deposition. Storms of various types impact the coast further. Hurricanes are more likely to affect the Atlantic and Gulf coast states, while winter storms affect all coastlines throughout the conterminous United States as well as Alaska and Hawaii. The impacts to population, infrastructure, and habitat vary geographically, depending on shoreline type, whether sandy beach, rocky shore, sea cliff, barrier island or wetland.
Storm-Induced Coastal Change
Hurricanes and other extreme storms generate storm surge and large waves, eroding the beach and dune system and reshaping the coastal landscape. Six types of coastal change observed along the coastlines of the United States are: beach erosion, dune erosion, overwash, inundation and island breaching, marsh erosion, and coastal cliff erosion.
Scenario-Based Assessments
Storm-induced water levels, due to both surge and waves, are compared to beach and dune elevations to determine the probabilities of three types of coastal change.
Real-Time Storm Response
Response activities include documenting pre-storm morphology, estimating storm-induced extreme water levels, forecasting storm-specific probabilities of coastal change, measuring post-storm morphology, quantifying storm-induced coastal change, and updating assessments of vulnerabilities to storm-induced coastal erosion.
Operational Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecasts
The USGS is working with the National Weather Service to combine USGS-derived beach morphology and wave predictions from the Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) to provide regional weather offices detailed forecasts of wave-induced water levels. Two pilot study areas are in the testing phase: Duck, North Carolina and Sunset Beach, Florida.
Storm-Induced Coastal Processes
Process studies examine the physical processes at work prior to, during, and following coastal storm events. Understanding the processes involved in coastal landform evolution will improve the accuracy of the assessments of storm-induced coastal change hazards.
West Coast Storm Impacts
We are developing rigorous research tools to understand the physical impacts that climate change and sea-level rise will have on dynamic geologic settings along Pacific and Arctic coasts. This research covers an enormous range of coastal settings: from permafrost coasts, to the Puget Sound estuary, the California coast, and low-lying Pacific atolls.
By understanding the effects of extreme storms, including coastal flooding, changes in the shoreline, and movement of sediment, we can develop better models for understanding long-term vulnerability of sea-level rise in various coastal settings, and help coastal managers and businesses plan for a changing climate. More info: Coastal Climate Impacts and Remote Sensing Coastal Change
Video Remote Sensing of Coastal Processes
Video observations of the coast are used to monitor a range of coastal processes, for example changes in the shoreline position, both seasonally and due to long-term effects such as sea-level rise, and instances of beach and dune erosion during extreme storm events. More info: Video Remote Sensing of Coastal Processes and Remote Sensing Coastal Change
- Science
Below are research tasks and science projects associated with this project.
National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards
Research to identify areas that are most vulnerable to coastal change hazards including beach and dune erosion, long-term shoreline change, and sea-level rise.ByNatural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center, Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Harvey, Hurricane Irma, Hurricane Jose, Hurricane Maria, Hurricane Matthew, Hurricane SandyFilter Total Items: 14 - Data
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
- Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Filter Total Items: 28Hindcasting potential hurricane impacts on rapidly changing barrier islands
Hindcasts of the coastal impact of Hurricane Ivan on Santa Rosa Island, Florida, using a storm-impact scaling model that compares hurricane-induced water levels to local dune morphology, were found to have an accuracy of 68% in predicting the occurrence of one of four impact regimes: swash, collision, overwash, and inundation. Errors were overwhelming under-predictions of the regime where the obseAuthorsH.F. Stockdon, D.M. Thompson, A. H. SallengerImpacts of Hurricane Rita on the beaches of western Louisiana
Hurricane Rita made landfall as a category 3 storm in western Louisiana in late September 2005, 1 month following Hurricane Katrina's devastating landfall in the eastern part of the State. Large waves and storm surge inundated the lowelevation coastline, destroying many communities and causing extensive coastal change including beach, dune, and marsh erosion.AuthorsHilary F. Stockdon, Laura A. Fauver, Asbury H. Sallenger,, C. Wayne WrightA simple model for the spatially-variable coastal response to hurricanes
The vulnerability of a beach to extreme coastal change during a hurricane can be estimated by comparing the relative elevations of storm-induced water levels to those of the dune or berm. A simple model that defines the coastal response based on these elevations was used to hindcast the potential impact regime along a 50-km stretch of the North Carolina coast to the landfalls of Hurricane Bonnie oAuthorsH.F. Stockdon, A. H. Sallenger, R.A. Holman, P.A. HowdHurricanes 2004: An overview of their characteristics and coastal change
Four hurricanes battered the state of Florida during 2004, the most affecting any state since Texas endured four in 1884. Each of the storms changed the coast differently. Average shoreline change within the right front quadrant of hurricane force winds varied from 1 m of shoreline advance to 20 m of retreat, whereas average sand volume change varied from 11 to 66 m3 m−1 of net loss (erosion). TheAuthorsAsbury H. Sallenger, Hilary Stockdon, Laura A. Fauver, Mark Hansen, David Thompson, C. Wayne Wright, Jeff Lillycrop - Web Tools
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
Coastal Change Hazards Portal
Interactive access to coastal change science and data for our Nation’s coasts. Information and products are organized within three coastal change hazard themes: 1) extreme storms, 2) shoreline change, and 3) sea-level rise. Displays probabilities of coastal erosion.
ByNatural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center, Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Dorian, Hurricane Harvey, Hurricane Ian, Hurricane Irma, Hurricane Isaias, Hurricane Jose, Hurricane Laura, Hurricane Marco, Hurricane Maria, Hurricane Matthew, Hurricane Michael, Hurricane Nate, Hurricane Sandy, Hurricanes - News
Below are news stories associated with this project.