Integrating Remote-Sensing and Ecological Forecasting into Decision-Support for Wetland Wildlife Management in the Central Valley of California Active
In the Central Valley of California, the few remaining wetlands plus cropland that is flooded after harvest provide critical habitat for wetland-dependent species. However future climate conditions and a growing human population will challenge how they are managed. To support coordinated conservation, wetland restoration, and climate adaptation planning, we partnered with Point Blue Conservation Science to research historical trends and future projections of dynamic cropland and wetland habitats across the Central Valley so that water allocations may optimize multiple ecosystem benefits.
We worked with multiple stakeholders including The Nature Conservancy and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to develop remote sensing products, species distribution models, annual forecasts, and long-term projections of the spatial and temporal availability of wetland habitats, dependent species, and groundwater recharge. We used time-series remote sensing with Landsat to understand drought effects on managed wetland vegetation critical for waterfowl. Using a knowledge co-production process, we integrated Landsat-derived maps, the USGS Central Valley Water Evaluation and Planning model and the USGS LUCAS land change model to produce spatially explicit projections of potential wetland and cropland habitats and new knowledge about climate adaptation potential. The USGS Basin Characterization Model determined where enhancement of wildlife habitat and groundwater recharge can co-occur. Changes in land use, flooded area, and flooded habitat are summarized at several management scales in a Story Map. This project was funded by the NASA Applied Sciences Ecological Forecasting Program, the USGS Land Change Science Program, the USGS Bay-Delta Priority Ecosystem Sciences Program, and The Nature Conservancy.
For more information see Applied Landscape Ecology and Remote Sensing.
Below are data releases for the USGS Remote-Sensing and Ecological Forecasting for Wetland Wildlife Management project.
Model Output Tabular Summaries for Central Valley Water and Land Use Futures: Land Use Change, Flooded Area, and Flooded Habitat Change
Integrated modeling of climate and land change impacts on future dynamic wetland habitat – a case study from California’s Central Valley
Habitat Structure Maps for the California Central Valley 2013-2017
Wetland Moist Soil Seed Maps for the Central Valley of California 2007-2017
Below are publications associated with the USGS Remote-Sensing and Ecological Forecasting for Wetland Wildlife Management project.
Translating stakeholder narratives for participatory modeling in landscape ecology
Knowledge coproduction on the impact of decisions for waterbird habitat in a changing climate
Changes in habitat suitability for wintering dabbling ducks during dry conditions in the Central Valley of California
Climate and land change impacts on future managed wetland habitat: A case study from California’s Central Valley
Both real-time and long-term environmental data perform well in predicting shorebird distributions in managed habitat
Quantifying drought’s influence on moist soil seed vegetation in California’s Central Valley through remote sensing
Quantifying drought’s influence on moist soil seed vegetation in California’s Central Valley through time-series remote sensing
Below are webtools associated with the USGS Remote-Sensing and Ecological Forecasting for Wetland Wildlife Management project.
Decision Support for Wetland and Wildlife Management
USGS Scientists published a StoryMap showing projected changes in land use, flooded area, and wildlife habitat in California’s Central Valley for five scenarios of future climate and water management.
Below are news items associated with the USGS Remote-Sensing and Ecological Forecasting for Wetland Wildlife Management project.
Below are partners and collaborators that worked on research with the USGS Remote-Sensing and Ecological Forecasting for Wetland Wildlife Management project.
- Overview
In the Central Valley of California, the few remaining wetlands plus cropland that is flooded after harvest provide critical habitat for wetland-dependent species. However future climate conditions and a growing human population will challenge how they are managed. To support coordinated conservation, wetland restoration, and climate adaptation planning, we partnered with Point Blue Conservation Science to research historical trends and future projections of dynamic cropland and wetland habitats across the Central Valley so that water allocations may optimize multiple ecosystem benefits.
We worked with multiple stakeholders including The Nature Conservancy and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to develop remote sensing products, species distribution models, annual forecasts, and long-term projections of the spatial and temporal availability of wetland habitats, dependent species, and groundwater recharge. We used time-series remote sensing with Landsat to understand drought effects on managed wetland vegetation critical for waterfowl. Using a knowledge co-production process, we integrated Landsat-derived maps, the USGS Central Valley Water Evaluation and Planning model and the USGS LUCAS land change model to produce spatially explicit projections of potential wetland and cropland habitats and new knowledge about climate adaptation potential. The USGS Basin Characterization Model determined where enhancement of wildlife habitat and groundwater recharge can co-occur. Changes in land use, flooded area, and flooded habitat are summarized at several management scales in a Story Map. This project was funded by the NASA Applied Sciences Ecological Forecasting Program, the USGS Land Change Science Program, the USGS Bay-Delta Priority Ecosystem Sciences Program, and The Nature Conservancy.
For more information see Applied Landscape Ecology and Remote Sensing.
- Data
Below are data releases for the USGS Remote-Sensing and Ecological Forecasting for Wetland Wildlife Management project.
Model Output Tabular Summaries for Central Valley Water and Land Use Futures: Land Use Change, Flooded Area, and Flooded Habitat Change
To support coordinated conservation, wetland restoration, and climate adaptation planning, we have developed five future scenarios of the Central Valley's seasonally flooded cropland and wetland waterbird habitat based on the State's most recent climate and land use projections (Wilson et al. 2021).The USGS Western Geographic Science Center and Point Blue Conservation Science modeled a Business-asIntegrated modeling of climate and land change impacts on future dynamic wetland habitat – a case study from California’s Central Valley
This dataset consists of raster geotiff and tabular outputs of annual map projections of land use and land cover for the California Central Valley for the period 2011-2101 across 5 future scenarios. Four of the scenarios were developed as part of the Central Valley Landscape Conservation Project. The 4 original scenarios include a Bad-Business-As-Usual (BBAU; high water, poor management), CalifornHabitat Structure Maps for the California Central Valley 2013-2017
We produced a time series of maps of habitat structure within wetlands of the Central Valley of California. The structure of open water and tall emergent vegetation, such as Typha spp. and Schoenoplectus spp., is critical for migratory birds. Through field observation and digitization of high resolution imagery we identified the locations of tall emergent vegetation, water, and other land cover. UWetland Moist Soil Seed Maps for the Central Valley of California 2007-2017
We produced a series of maps of moist soil seed plants within managed wetlands in the Central Valley of California from 2007-2011 & 2013-2017. Moist soil seed plants, such as swamp timothy (Crypsis schoenoides) and watergrass (Echinochloa crusgallim), are a critical food source for migratory birds. Vegetation maps were created by classifying Landsat imagery from 2007-2011 and 2013-2017. A support - Publications
Below are publications associated with the USGS Remote-Sensing and Ecological Forecasting for Wetland Wildlife Management project.
Translating stakeholder narratives for participatory modeling in landscape ecology
ContextEngaging stakeholders in research is needed for many of the sustainability challenges that landscape ecologists address. Involving stakeholders’ perspectives through narratives in participatory modeling fosters better understanding of the problem and evaluation of the acceptability of tradeoffs and creates buy-in for management actions. However, stakeholder-driven inputs often take the formAuthorsJelena Vukomanovic, Lindsey Smart, Jennifer Koch, Virginia Dale, Sophie Plassin, Kristin B. Byrd, Colin Beier, Frederik DoyonKnowledge coproduction on the impact of decisions for waterbird habitat in a changing climate
Scientists, resource managers, and decision-makers increasingly use knowledge co-production to guide the stewardship of future landscapes under climate change. This process was applied in the California Central Valley, USA to solve complex conservation problems, where managed wetlands and croplands are flooded between fall and spring to support some of the largest concentrations of shorebirds andAuthorsKristin B. Byrd, Elliott Matchett, Claudia Mengelt, Tamara S. Wilson, Deanne DiPietro, Monica Moritsch, Erin Conlisk, Sam Veloz, Michael L. Casazza, Matthew ReiterChanges in habitat suitability for wintering dabbling ducks during dry conditions in the Central Valley of California
In arid and Mediterranean regions, landscape-scale wetland conservation requires understanding how wildlife responds to dynamic freshwater availability and conservation actions to enhance wetland habitat. Taking advantage of Landsat satellite data and structured and community science bird survey data, we built species distribution models to describe how three duck species, the Northern Pintail (AnAuthorsErin E. Conlisk, Kristin B. Byrd, Elliott Matchett, Austen Lorenz, Michael L. Casazza, Gregory H. Golet, Mark D. Reynolds, Kristin A. Sesser, Matthew E. ReiterClimate and land change impacts on future managed wetland habitat: A case study from California’s Central Valley
ConceptCalifornia’s Central Valley provides critical habitat for migratory waterbirds, yet only 10% of naturally occurring wetlands remain. Competition for limited water supplies and climate change will impact the long-term viability of these intensively managed habitats.ObjectivesForecast the distribution, abundance, and connectivity of surface water and managed wetland habitats, using 5 spatiallAuthorsTamara S. Wilson, Elliott Matchett, Kristin B. Byrd, Erin Conlisk, Matthew E. Reiter, Cynthia Wallace, Lorraine E. Flint, Alan L. Flint, Monica Mei Jeen MoritschBoth real-time and long-term environmental data perform well in predicting shorebird distributions in managed habitat
Highly mobile species, such as migratory birds, respond to seasonal and inter-annual variability in resource availability by moving to better habitats. Despite the recognized importance of resource thresholds, species distribution models typically rely on long-term average habitat conditions, mostly because large-extent, temporally-resolved, environmental data are difficult to obtain. Recent advanAuthorsErin Conlisk, Gregory Golet, Mark Reynolds, Blake Barbaree, Kristin Sesser, Kristin B. Byrd, Sam Veloz, Matt ReiterQuantifying drought’s influence on moist soil seed vegetation in California’s Central Valley through remote sensing
Across the Central Valley of California, millions of wintering waterfowl rely on moist soil seed (MSS) plants that grow in managed seasonal wetlands as a critical source of food. Estimates of MSS plant production are used to set waterfowl habitat targets yet this information is not well known. We created the first Central Valley-wide time series maps of MSS plant distributions and productivity. WeAuthorsKristin B. Byrd, Austen Lorenz, James Anderson, Cynthia Wallace, Kara Moore-O'Leary, Jennifer Isola, Ricardo Ortega, Matt ReiterQuantifying drought’s influence on moist soil seed vegetation in California’s Central Valley through time-series remote sensing
Californias Central Valley, USA is a critical component of the Pacific Flyway despite loss of more than 90% of its wetlands. Moist soil seed (MSS) wetland plants are now produced by mimicking seasonal flooding in managed wetlands to provide an essential food resource for waterfowl. Managers need MSS plant area and productivity estimates to support waterfowl conservation, yet this remains unknown aAuthorsKristin B. Byrd, Austen Lorenz, James Anderson, Cynthia Wallace, Kara Moore-O'Leary, Jennifer Isola, Ricardo Ortega, Matt Reiter - Web Tools
Below are webtools associated with the USGS Remote-Sensing and Ecological Forecasting for Wetland Wildlife Management project.
Decision Support for Wetland and Wildlife Management
USGS Scientists published a StoryMap showing projected changes in land use, flooded area, and wildlife habitat in California’s Central Valley for five scenarios of future climate and water management.
- News
Below are news items associated with the USGS Remote-Sensing and Ecological Forecasting for Wetland Wildlife Management project.
- Partners
Below are partners and collaborators that worked on research with the USGS Remote-Sensing and Ecological Forecasting for Wetland Wildlife Management project.