Past and Future Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Habitats and Species (FISCHS) Completed
USGS aims to integrate biological and hydrological models to help develop management tools to deal with the projected ecological consequences of rising sea level in coastal south Florida.
PROJECT COMPLETED
The Science Issue and Relevance: The objective of this project is to integrate biological and hydrological models to develop management tools to deal with the projected ecological consequences of rising sea level in coastal south Florida. Our methodology and results are directly applicable to future-casting effects of sea level rise, storm surge events, and climate change on changes in coastal vegetation. This has direct relevance for southern Florida, but is applicable to many tropical and subtropical coastlines. It is also applicable to future-casting and hind-casting the effects of local alterations in coastal hydrology by natural or human induced actions and to effects of tsunamis on low lying islands and coastal areas. Techniques can be used to identify water-management schemes that best maintain coastal ecosystems under projected sea level rise and climate change.
Methodology for Addressing the Issue: To develop a realistic suite of predictive tools, we are (1) mapping the position of the mangrove-marsh ecotone at selected locations for six time periods, determining rates of change and relating those rates to rates of sea-level rise; (2) developing new mechanistic models of coastal vegetation change and determine thresholds and tipping points for change; (3) incorporating episodic disturbance from hurricanes to identify its impact on hydrology and vegetation; (4) enhancing a coupled surface-water/ground-water hydrologic model to reliably hind-cast multi-decadal observed sea level rise, hurricane effects, and vegetation change; (5) developing future-casting capability under projected climate change, SLR, and restoration scenarios, and (6) using the hydrologic models to simulate variables for spatially-explicit population and habitat suitability index models for application to management problems.
Future Steps: At the end of the five-year project we will have published on two theoretical models that extend our understanding of mechanisms of vegetation regime change with SLR and storm surge. Modeling will be extended to address effects of SLR, storm surge, and tsunamis on vegetation on Pacific islands. Completion of a hind-cast model will provide hydrological output to further test hypotheses of mechanisms of change and to estimate rates of past change. The working future-cast model will provide a strong foundation to build user-defined scenarios of future conditions and processes that will be useful to management and wetlands restoration in the Greater Everglades.
Related Project(s): La Florida regional climate downscaling project, the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP), the Picayune Strand Restoration, Across Trophic Level System Simulation (ATLSS)
Publications (USGS authors in bold):
2009
(1) Langtimm, C.A., Smith, T.J. III, DeAngelis, D.L., Swain, E.D., Krohn, M.D., and Stith, B.M., 2009, Progress Update - FY2009: Past and Future Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Habitats and Species in the Greater Everglades — An Integrated Modeling Approach: Peer Reviewed update on SLR project to Bea Van Horne, Ecosystems Mapping and Ronnie Best, GEPES.
2010
(2) Barr, J.G., Engel, V., Fuentes, J.D., Zieman, J.C., O’Halloran, T.L., Smith, T.J., III & Anderson, G.H. 2010. Seasonal Controls on mangrove forest-atmosphere carbon dioxide exchanges in western Everglades National Park. Journal of Geophysical Research. v. 115, G02020, doi:10.1029/2009JG001186.
(3) Fourqurean, J.W., Smith, T.J., III, Possley, J., Collins, T.M., Lee, D., & Namoff, S., 2010, Are mangroves in the tropical Atlantic ripe for invasion? Exotic mangrove trees in the forests of South Florida. Biological Invasions, v. 12, p. 2509-2522. DOI 10.1007/s10530-009-96608.
(4) Rivera-Monroy, V.H., Twilley, R.R., Davis, S.E., III, Childers, D.L., Simard, M, Chambers, R., Jaffe, R., Boyer, J.N., Rudnick, D., Zhang, K., Castañeda-Moya, E., Ewe, S., Price, R.M., Coronado-Molina, C., Ross, M., Smith, T.J., III, Michot, B., Meselhe, E., Nuttle. W., Troxler, T. & Noe, G.B. 2010. The Role of the Everglades Mangrove Ecotone Region (EMER) in Regulating Nutrient Cycling and Wetland Productivity in South Florida. Critical Reviews in Environmental Science & Technology, v. 41, Suppl. 1, p. 633-669.
(5) Smith, T.J., III, Tiling-Range, G., Jones, J., Nelson, P., Foster, A., and Balentine, K., 2010, The use of historical charts and photographs in ecosystem restoration: examples from the Everglades Historical Air Photo Project, in Cowley, D.C., Standring, R.A., and Abicht, M.J., eds., Landscapes through the lens: aerial photographs and the historic environment: Occasional Publication of the Aerial Archaeology Research Group, No. 2, Oxford, UK, Oxbow Books, p. 179-191.
(6) Swain, E.D., and Decker, J.D., 2010, A Measurement-Derived Heat-Budget Approach For Simulating Coastal Wetland Temperature With a Hydrodynamic Model; Wetlands, 30(3), Pages 635-648.
2011
(7) DeAngelis, D.L., Jiang, J., Teh, S.Y., Koh, H.L., Smith, T.J., Langtimm, C.A., Swain, E.D., Krohn, M.D., and Stith, B.M., 2011, Modeling the effects of storm surges, in Koh, H.L., Liu, P.L-F., and Teh, S. Y. eds., Tsunami simulation for impact assessment, Proceeding Series, Penerbit Universiti Sains, Malaysia, Pulau Pinang, p. 8-18.
(8) Martin, J., Fackler, P.L., Nichols, J.D., Lubow, B.C., Eaton, M.J., Runge, M.C., Stith, B.M., and Langtimm, C.A., 2011, Structured decision making as a proactive approach to dealing with sea level rise in Florida: Climatic Change, v. 107, p. 185-202.
(9) Misra, V., Moeller, M., Stefanova, L., Chan, S., O’Brien, J.J., Smith, T.J., III, & Plant, N. 2011. The Influence of the Atlantic Warm Pool on the Florida Panhandle Sea Breeze. Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 116: D00Q06, doi:10.1029/2010JD015367, 2011.
(10) Saha, A.K., Saha, S., Sadle, J., Jiang, J., Ross, M.S., Price, R.M., Sternberg, L.S.L.O., and Wendelberger, K.S., 2011, Sea level rise and south Florida coastal forests: Climatic Change, v. 107, p. 81-108.
(11) Stith, B.M., Reid, J.P., Langtimm, C.A., Swain, E.D., Doyle, T.J., Slone, D.H., Decker, J.D., and Soderqvist, L.E., 2011, Temperature inverted haloclines provide winter warm-water refugia for manatees in southwest Florida: Estuaries and Coasts, v. 34, p. 106-119.
2012
(12) Barr, J.G., Smith, T.J., III, Fuentes, J.D. & Engel, V., 2012, Hurricane disturbance and recovery of energy balance, CO2 fluxes and canopy structure in a mangrove forest of the Florida Everglades. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, v. 153, p. 54-66. Doi: 10.1016/j.agformet.2011.07.022
(13) Jiang, J., DeAngelis, D. L., Smith, T. J. III, Teh, S. Y., and Koh, H. L., 2012, Spatial pattern formation of coastal vegetation in response to external gradients and positive feedbacks affecting soil porewater salinity: a model study. Landscape Ecology, v. 27, p.109-119.
(14) Jiang, J., Gao, D., and DeAngelis, D. L., 2012, Towards a theory of ecotone resilience: Coastal vegetation on a salinity gradient. Theoretical Population Biology 82:29-37.
(15) Saha, A.K., Moses, C.S., Price, R.M., Engel, V., Smith, T.J., III & Anderson, G., 2012, A hydrological budget (2002-2008) for a large subtropical wetland ecosystem indicates marine groundwater discharge accompanies diminished freshwater flow. Estuaries and Coasts, v. 35, p. 459-474.
(16) Stefanova, L., Misra, V., Chan, S., O’Brien, J.J., Griffin, M. & Smith, T.J., III, 2012, A proxy for high-resolution regional reanalysis for the southeast United States: Assessment of precipitation variability. Climate Dynamics, Online, DOI 10.1007/s00382-011-1230-y
(17) Zhang, K., Liu, H., Li, Y, Xu, H., Shen, J., Rhome, J., Smith, T.J., III, 2012, The role of mangroves in attenuating storm surges. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science v.102-103, p. 11-23.
(18) Lohmann, M. A., Swain, E. D., Wang, J. D., and Dixon, J. F., 2012, Evaluation of effects of changes in canal management and precipitation patterns on Biscayne Bay, Florida salinity, using an integrated surface-water groundwater model: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2012-5099, 94p.
(19) Jiang, J., Mangroves on the move: predictions of storm surge effects on coastal vegetation. Dissertation, University of Miami, Department of Biology, May 2012.
(20) Stith, B.M., D.H. Slone, M. de Wit, H.H. Edwards, C.A. Langtimm, E.D. Swain, L.E. Soderqvist, and J.P. Reid, 2012, Passive thermal refugia provide warm water for Florida manatees during severe winter of 2009/2010. Marine Ecology Progress Series 462:287-301.
2013
(21) Decker, J., Swain, E.D., Stith, B.M., and Langtimm, C.A., 2013, Assessing factors affecting thermal properties of a passive thermal refuge using three-dimensional hydrodynamic flow and transport modeling. Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering 139(3):209-220.
(22) Smoak, J.M., Breithaupt, J., Smith, T.J., III, and Sanders, C.J., 2013, Sediment accretion and organic carbon burial relative to sea-level rise and storm events in the mangrove forests of Everglades National Park: Catena, 104:58-66.
(23) Jiang, J., and D. L. DeAngelis. 2013. Strong species-environment feedback shapes plant community assembly along environmental gradients. Ecology and Evolution. doi:10.1002/ece3.784.
(24) Jiang, J., D. L. DeAngelis, G. H. Anderson, and T. J. Smith, III, 2013, Analysis and simulation of propagule dispersal and salinity intrusion from storm surge on the movement of a marsh-mangrove ecotone in South Florida. Estuaries and Coasts (Published on-line: DOI:10.1007/s12237-013-9666-4).
2014
(25) Swain, E., L. Stefanova, and T. Smith, 2014, Applying downscaled global climate model data to a hydrodynamic surface-water and groundwater model. American Journal of Climate Change 3:33-49. http://dx.doi.org/10.42356/ajcc.2014.31004.
2015
(26) Zajac, Z., B. Stith, A. Bowling, C. Langtimm, E. Swain, 2015, Evaluation of habitat suitability index models by global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis: a case study for submerged aquatic vegetation: Ecology and Evolution, 5(13):2503-2517. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ece3.1520/full
(27) Swain, E.D., M.D. Krohn, C.A. Langtimm, 2015, Numerical computation of hurricane effects on historic coastal hydrology in southern Florida. Ecological Processes 4:4 DOI: 10.1186/s13717-014-0028-3
Below are publications associated with this project.
Evaluation of habitat suitability index models by global sensitivity and uncertainty analyses: a case study for submerged aquatic vegetation
Numerical computation of hurricane effects on historic coastal hydrology in Southern Florida
Analysis and simulation of propagule dispersal and salinity intrusion from storm surge on the movement of a marsh–mangrove ecotone in South Florida
Applying downscaled global climate model data to a hydrodynamic surface-water and groundwater model
Sediment accretion and organic carbon burial relative to sea-level rise and storm events in two mangrove forests in Everglades National Park
Assessing factors affecting the thermal properties of a passive thermal refuge using three-dimensional hydrodynamic flow and transport modeling
Strong species-environment feedback shapes plant community assembly along environmental gradients
Passive thermal refugia provided warm water for Florida manatees during the severe winter of 2009-2010
Towards a theory of ecotone resilience: coastal vegetation on a salinity gradient
The role of mangroves in attenuating storm surges
A hydrological budget (2002-2008) for a large subtropical wetland ecosystem indicates marine groundwater discharge accompanies diminished freshwater flow
Hurricane disturbance and recovery of energy balance, CO2 fluxes and canopy structure in a mangrove forest of the Florida Everglades
- Overview
USGS aims to integrate biological and hydrological models to help develop management tools to deal with the projected ecological consequences of rising sea level in coastal south Florida.
PROJECT COMPLETED
The Science Issue and Relevance: The objective of this project is to integrate biological and hydrological models to develop management tools to deal with the projected ecological consequences of rising sea level in coastal south Florida. Our methodology and results are directly applicable to future-casting effects of sea level rise, storm surge events, and climate change on changes in coastal vegetation. This has direct relevance for southern Florida, but is applicable to many tropical and subtropical coastlines. It is also applicable to future-casting and hind-casting the effects of local alterations in coastal hydrology by natural or human induced actions and to effects of tsunamis on low lying islands and coastal areas. Techniques can be used to identify water-management schemes that best maintain coastal ecosystems under projected sea level rise and climate change.
Methodology for Addressing the Issue: To develop a realistic suite of predictive tools, we are (1) mapping the position of the mangrove-marsh ecotone at selected locations for six time periods, determining rates of change and relating those rates to rates of sea-level rise; (2) developing new mechanistic models of coastal vegetation change and determine thresholds and tipping points for change; (3) incorporating episodic disturbance from hurricanes to identify its impact on hydrology and vegetation; (4) enhancing a coupled surface-water/ground-water hydrologic model to reliably hind-cast multi-decadal observed sea level rise, hurricane effects, and vegetation change; (5) developing future-casting capability under projected climate change, SLR, and restoration scenarios, and (6) using the hydrologic models to simulate variables for spatially-explicit population and habitat suitability index models for application to management problems.
Future Steps: At the end of the five-year project we will have published on two theoretical models that extend our understanding of mechanisms of vegetation regime change with SLR and storm surge. Modeling will be extended to address effects of SLR, storm surge, and tsunamis on vegetation on Pacific islands. Completion of a hind-cast model will provide hydrological output to further test hypotheses of mechanisms of change and to estimate rates of past change. The working future-cast model will provide a strong foundation to build user-defined scenarios of future conditions and processes that will be useful to management and wetlands restoration in the Greater Everglades.
Related Project(s): La Florida regional climate downscaling project, the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP), the Picayune Strand Restoration, Across Trophic Level System Simulation (ATLSS)
Publications (USGS authors in bold):
2009
(1) Langtimm, C.A., Smith, T.J. III, DeAngelis, D.L., Swain, E.D., Krohn, M.D., and Stith, B.M., 2009, Progress Update - FY2009: Past and Future Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Habitats and Species in the Greater Everglades — An Integrated Modeling Approach: Peer Reviewed update on SLR project to Bea Van Horne, Ecosystems Mapping and Ronnie Best, GEPES.
2010
(2) Barr, J.G., Engel, V., Fuentes, J.D., Zieman, J.C., O’Halloran, T.L., Smith, T.J., III & Anderson, G.H. 2010. Seasonal Controls on mangrove forest-atmosphere carbon dioxide exchanges in western Everglades National Park. Journal of Geophysical Research. v. 115, G02020, doi:10.1029/2009JG001186.
(3) Fourqurean, J.W., Smith, T.J., III, Possley, J., Collins, T.M., Lee, D., & Namoff, S., 2010, Are mangroves in the tropical Atlantic ripe for invasion? Exotic mangrove trees in the forests of South Florida. Biological Invasions, v. 12, p. 2509-2522. DOI 10.1007/s10530-009-96608.
(4) Rivera-Monroy, V.H., Twilley, R.R., Davis, S.E., III, Childers, D.L., Simard, M, Chambers, R., Jaffe, R., Boyer, J.N., Rudnick, D., Zhang, K., Castañeda-Moya, E., Ewe, S., Price, R.M., Coronado-Molina, C., Ross, M., Smith, T.J., III, Michot, B., Meselhe, E., Nuttle. W., Troxler, T. & Noe, G.B. 2010. The Role of the Everglades Mangrove Ecotone Region (EMER) in Regulating Nutrient Cycling and Wetland Productivity in South Florida. Critical Reviews in Environmental Science & Technology, v. 41, Suppl. 1, p. 633-669.
(5) Smith, T.J., III, Tiling-Range, G., Jones, J., Nelson, P., Foster, A., and Balentine, K., 2010, The use of historical charts and photographs in ecosystem restoration: examples from the Everglades Historical Air Photo Project, in Cowley, D.C., Standring, R.A., and Abicht, M.J., eds., Landscapes through the lens: aerial photographs and the historic environment: Occasional Publication of the Aerial Archaeology Research Group, No. 2, Oxford, UK, Oxbow Books, p. 179-191.
(6) Swain, E.D., and Decker, J.D., 2010, A Measurement-Derived Heat-Budget Approach For Simulating Coastal Wetland Temperature With a Hydrodynamic Model; Wetlands, 30(3), Pages 635-648.
2011
(7) DeAngelis, D.L., Jiang, J., Teh, S.Y., Koh, H.L., Smith, T.J., Langtimm, C.A., Swain, E.D., Krohn, M.D., and Stith, B.M., 2011, Modeling the effects of storm surges, in Koh, H.L., Liu, P.L-F., and Teh, S. Y. eds., Tsunami simulation for impact assessment, Proceeding Series, Penerbit Universiti Sains, Malaysia, Pulau Pinang, p. 8-18.
(8) Martin, J., Fackler, P.L., Nichols, J.D., Lubow, B.C., Eaton, M.J., Runge, M.C., Stith, B.M., and Langtimm, C.A., 2011, Structured decision making as a proactive approach to dealing with sea level rise in Florida: Climatic Change, v. 107, p. 185-202.
(9) Misra, V., Moeller, M., Stefanova, L., Chan, S., O’Brien, J.J., Smith, T.J., III, & Plant, N. 2011. The Influence of the Atlantic Warm Pool on the Florida Panhandle Sea Breeze. Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 116: D00Q06, doi:10.1029/2010JD015367, 2011.
(10) Saha, A.K., Saha, S., Sadle, J., Jiang, J., Ross, M.S., Price, R.M., Sternberg, L.S.L.O., and Wendelberger, K.S., 2011, Sea level rise and south Florida coastal forests: Climatic Change, v. 107, p. 81-108.
(11) Stith, B.M., Reid, J.P., Langtimm, C.A., Swain, E.D., Doyle, T.J., Slone, D.H., Decker, J.D., and Soderqvist, L.E., 2011, Temperature inverted haloclines provide winter warm-water refugia for manatees in southwest Florida: Estuaries and Coasts, v. 34, p. 106-119.
2012
(12) Barr, J.G., Smith, T.J., III, Fuentes, J.D. & Engel, V., 2012, Hurricane disturbance and recovery of energy balance, CO2 fluxes and canopy structure in a mangrove forest of the Florida Everglades. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, v. 153, p. 54-66. Doi: 10.1016/j.agformet.2011.07.022
(13) Jiang, J., DeAngelis, D. L., Smith, T. J. III, Teh, S. Y., and Koh, H. L., 2012, Spatial pattern formation of coastal vegetation in response to external gradients and positive feedbacks affecting soil porewater salinity: a model study. Landscape Ecology, v. 27, p.109-119.
(14) Jiang, J., Gao, D., and DeAngelis, D. L., 2012, Towards a theory of ecotone resilience: Coastal vegetation on a salinity gradient. Theoretical Population Biology 82:29-37.
(15) Saha, A.K., Moses, C.S., Price, R.M., Engel, V., Smith, T.J., III & Anderson, G., 2012, A hydrological budget (2002-2008) for a large subtropical wetland ecosystem indicates marine groundwater discharge accompanies diminished freshwater flow. Estuaries and Coasts, v. 35, p. 459-474.
(16) Stefanova, L., Misra, V., Chan, S., O’Brien, J.J., Griffin, M. & Smith, T.J., III, 2012, A proxy for high-resolution regional reanalysis for the southeast United States: Assessment of precipitation variability. Climate Dynamics, Online, DOI 10.1007/s00382-011-1230-y
(17) Zhang, K., Liu, H., Li, Y, Xu, H., Shen, J., Rhome, J., Smith, T.J., III, 2012, The role of mangroves in attenuating storm surges. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science v.102-103, p. 11-23.
(18) Lohmann, M. A., Swain, E. D., Wang, J. D., and Dixon, J. F., 2012, Evaluation of effects of changes in canal management and precipitation patterns on Biscayne Bay, Florida salinity, using an integrated surface-water groundwater model: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2012-5099, 94p.
(19) Jiang, J., Mangroves on the move: predictions of storm surge effects on coastal vegetation. Dissertation, University of Miami, Department of Biology, May 2012.
(20) Stith, B.M., D.H. Slone, M. de Wit, H.H. Edwards, C.A. Langtimm, E.D. Swain, L.E. Soderqvist, and J.P. Reid, 2012, Passive thermal refugia provide warm water for Florida manatees during severe winter of 2009/2010. Marine Ecology Progress Series 462:287-301.
2013
(21) Decker, J., Swain, E.D., Stith, B.M., and Langtimm, C.A., 2013, Assessing factors affecting thermal properties of a passive thermal refuge using three-dimensional hydrodynamic flow and transport modeling. Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering 139(3):209-220.
(22) Smoak, J.M., Breithaupt, J., Smith, T.J., III, and Sanders, C.J., 2013, Sediment accretion and organic carbon burial relative to sea-level rise and storm events in the mangrove forests of Everglades National Park: Catena, 104:58-66.
(23) Jiang, J., and D. L. DeAngelis. 2013. Strong species-environment feedback shapes plant community assembly along environmental gradients. Ecology and Evolution. doi:10.1002/ece3.784.
(24) Jiang, J., D. L. DeAngelis, G. H. Anderson, and T. J. Smith, III, 2013, Analysis and simulation of propagule dispersal and salinity intrusion from storm surge on the movement of a marsh-mangrove ecotone in South Florida. Estuaries and Coasts (Published on-line: DOI:10.1007/s12237-013-9666-4).
2014
(25) Swain, E., L. Stefanova, and T. Smith, 2014, Applying downscaled global climate model data to a hydrodynamic surface-water and groundwater model. American Journal of Climate Change 3:33-49. http://dx.doi.org/10.42356/ajcc.2014.31004.
2015
(26) Zajac, Z., B. Stith, A. Bowling, C. Langtimm, E. Swain, 2015, Evaluation of habitat suitability index models by global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis: a case study for submerged aquatic vegetation: Ecology and Evolution, 5(13):2503-2517. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ece3.1520/full
(27) Swain, E.D., M.D. Krohn, C.A. Langtimm, 2015, Numerical computation of hurricane effects on historic coastal hydrology in southern Florida. Ecological Processes 4:4 DOI: 10.1186/s13717-014-0028-3
- Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Filter Total Items: 19Evaluation of habitat suitability index models by global sensitivity and uncertainty analyses: a case study for submerged aquatic vegetation
Habitat suitability index (HSI) models are commonly used to predict habitat quality and species distributions and are used to develop biological surveys, assess reserve and management priorities, and anticipate possible change under different management or climate change scenarios. Important management decisions may be based on model results, often without a clear understanding of the level of uncAuthorsZuzanna Zajac, Bradley Stith, Andrea C. Bowling, Catherine A. Langtimm, Eric D. SwainNumerical computation of hurricane effects on historic coastal hydrology in Southern Florida
Introduction Numerical models are critical for assessing the effects of sea level rise (SLR), hurricanes, and storm surge on vegetation change in the Everglades National Park. The model must be capable of representing short-timescale hydrodynamics, salinity transport, and groundwater interaction. However, there is also a strong need to adapt these numerical models to hindcast past conditions in orAuthorsEric D. Swain, M. Dennis Krohn, Catherine A. LangtimmAnalysis and simulation of propagule dispersal and salinity intrusion from storm surge on the movement of a marsh–mangrove ecotone in South Florida
Coastal mangrove–freshwater marsh ecotones of the Everglades represent transitions between marine salt-tolerant halophytic and freshwater salt-intolerant glycophytic communities. It is hypothesized here that a self-reinforcing feedback, termed a “vegetation switch,” between vegetation and soil salinity, helps maintain the sharp mangrove–marsh ecotone. A general theoretical implication of the switcAuthorsJiang Jiang, Donald L. DeAngelis, Gordon H. Anderson, Thomas J. SmithApplying downscaled global climate model data to a hydrodynamic surface-water and groundwater model
Precipitation data from Global Climate Models have been downscaled to smaller regions. Adapting this downscaled precipitation data to a coupled hydrodynamic surface-water/groundwater model of southern Florida allows an examination of future conditions and their effect on groundwater levels, inundation patterns, surface-water stage and flows, and salinity. The downscaled rainfall data include the 1AuthorsEric Swain, Lydia Stefanova, Thomas SmithSediment accretion and organic carbon burial relative to sea-level rise and storm events in two mangrove forests in Everglades National Park
The goal of this investigation was to examine how sediment accretion and organic carbon (OC) burial rates in mangrove forests respond to climate change. Specifically, will the accretion rates keep pace with sea-level rise, and what is the source and fate of OC in the system? Mass accumulation, accretion and OC burial rates were determined via 210Pb dating (i.e. 100 year time scale) on sediment corAuthorsJoseph M. Smoak, Joshua L. Breithaupt, Thomas J. Smith, Christian J. SandersAssessing factors affecting the thermal properties of a passive thermal refuge using three-dimensional hydrodynamic flow and transport modeling
Everglades restoration activities may cause changes to temperature and salinity stratification at the Port of the Islands (POI) marina, which could affect its suitability as a cold weather refuge for manatees. To better understand how the Picayune Strand Restoration Project (PSRP) may alter this important resource in Collier County in southwestern Florida, the USGS has developed a three-dimensionaAuthorsJeremy D. Decker, Eric D. Swain, Bradley Stith, Catherine A. LangtimmStrong species-environment feedback shapes plant community assembly along environmental gradients
An aim of community ecology is to understand the patterns of competing species assembly along environmental gradients. All species interact with their environments. However, theories of community assembly have seldom taken into account the effects of species that are able to engineer the environment. In this modeling study, we integrate the species' engineering trait together with processes of immAuthorsJiang Jiang, Donald L. DeAngelisPassive thermal refugia provided warm water for Florida manatees during the severe winter of 2009-2010
Haloclines induced by freshwater inflow over tidal water have been identified as an important mechanism for maintaining warm water in passive thermal refugia (PTR) used by Florida manatees Trichechus manatus latirostris during winter in extreme southwestern Florida. Record-setting cold during winter 2009–2010 resulted in an unprecedented number of manatee deaths, adding to concerns that PTR may prAuthorsB.M. Stith, D. H. Slone, M. de Wit, H.H. Edwards, C.A. Langtimm, E.D. Swain, L.E. Soderqvist, J. P. ReidTowards a theory of ecotone resilience: coastal vegetation on a salinity gradient
Ecotones represent locations where vegetation change is likely to occur as a result of climate and other environmental changes. Using a model of an ecotone vulnerable to such future changes, we estimated the resilience of the ecotone to disturbances. The specific ecotone is that between two different vegetation types, salinity-tolerant and salinity-intolerant, along a gradient in groundwater salinAuthorsJiang Jiang, Daozhou Gao, Donald L. DeAngelisThe role of mangroves in attenuating storm surges
Field observations and numerical simulations indicate that the 6-to-30-km-wide mangrove forest along the Gulf Coast of South Florida effectively attenuated stormsurges from a Category 3 hurricane, Wilma, and protected the inland wetland by reducing an inundation area of 1800 km2 and restricting surge inundation inside the mangrove zone. The surge amplitude decreases at a rate of 40–50 cm/km acrossAuthorsKeqi Zhang, Huiqing Liu, Yuepeng Li, Hongzhou Xu, Jian Shen, Jamie Rhome, J. SmithA hydrological budget (2002-2008) for a large subtropical wetland ecosystem indicates marine groundwater discharge accompanies diminished freshwater flow
Water budget parameters are estimated for Shark River Slough (SRS), the main drainage within Everglades National Park (ENP) from 2002 to 2008. Inputs to the water budget include surface water inflows and precipitation while outputs consist of evapotranspiration, discharge to the Gulf of Mexico and seepage losses due to municipal wellfield extraction. The daily change in volume of SRS is equated toAuthorsAmartya K. Saha, Christopher S. Moses, Rene M. Price, Victor Engel, Thomas J. Smith, Gordon AndersonHurricane disturbance and recovery of energy balance, CO2 fluxes and canopy structure in a mangrove forest of the Florida Everglades
Eddy covariance (EC) estimates of carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes and energy balance are examined to investigate the functional responses of a mature mangrove forest to a disturbance generated by Hurricane Wilma on October 24, 2005 in the Florida Everglades. At the EC site, high winds from the hurricane caused nearly 100% defoliation in the upper canopy and widespread tree mortality. Soil temperaturesAuthorsJordan G. Barr, Vic Engel, Thomas J. Smith, Jose D. Fuentes