Hazards Societal Consequences and Risk Communication Active
The Hazards Societal Consequences and Risk Communication project is led by Anne Wein at the Western Geographic Science Center (WGSC).
The umbrella project is Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR), which estimates consequences of natural hazard disaster scenarios as a strategy to engage decision-makers in increasing a community’s ability to cope with the effects of a disaster. Scenarios for earthquakes (ShakeOut, HayWired), a winter storm (ARkStorm), and a tsunami have been developed with partners and stakeholders to apply scientific information to community decision making and emergency management. The scenarios are constructed from a foundation of earth science describing the hazard events that are translated into physical and environmental damages, and social and economic consequences. WGSC's role has been geographical analyses, the coordination of societal consequences, and contracting of project evaluations. Experience with SAFRR scenarios has inspired and enabled other research in related areas of risk analysis and risk communication. One example is research about the communication of aftershock information during the Canterbury New Zealand earthquake sequence.
Geographical Analyses — The center has conducted and managed Geographical Information Systems (GIS) analyses across the science, engineering, environmental, and societal consequence aspects of the scenarios. Spatial analyses are used to map multiple hazards and estimate the exposures of or damages to populations, land uses, infrastructures, and buildings to these hazards.
Economic Consequences — Economic consequence analysis pertains to business interruption (productivity) losses due to physical damages, lifeline service outages, and ripple effects along supply chains. WGSC coordinates with lifeline operators (e.g., transportation agencies, electric power providers, and the telecommunications industry) on outage estimates. In catastrophic events when recovery languishes for many years, business interruption losses can exceed physical repair and replacement costs (e.g., Hurricane Katrina). The economic consequence analysis includes an investigation of economic resilience at the levels of firms, sectors, and the regional economy. In collaboration with the University of Southern California, Boston University and the Association of Bay Area Governments (since merged with the Metropolitan Transportation Commission), economic forecasting and policy analysis tools (e.g., Input-output, REMI, and computable general equilibrium models) are applied to estimate potential business interruption losses and economic resilience.
Community Recovery — Just as police and fire fighters need exercises to prepare for emergency response, so must the "second wave" of responders — city managers, planners, building officials, engineers, and other staff who will have local recovery responsibilities. Thus, the recovery phase of a disaster also deserves attention in scenario-based emergency management exercises. In collaboration with Laurie Johnson Consulting, Inc., the ShakeOut scenario was extended by populating a recovery model in consultation with communities. The HayWired scenario contains an integrated analysis of hazards, concentrated damage and demographic characteristics to identify communities at risk of population displacement and recovery challenges.
Evaluation — Analyses of surveys and interviews are used to evaluate the effectiveness of the SAFRR scenario development process, project outputs and communication of results for changes in awareness, knowledge, and action. WGSC has managed contracts for the Tsunami and HayWired scenarios for independent evaluation by the Natural Hazards Center Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, Boulder.
Risk Communication
The diversity of the HayWired scenario is examined with university partners including students with diverse life experiences by engaging with under-represented communities or organizations representing them. For example, the Diversifying HayWired Communication project.
In collaboration with GNS Science and Massey University in Aotearoa, New Zealand, WGSC with the earthquake science center (ESC) studied the communication of aftershock information during the 2010-present Canterbury earthquake sequence in 2013 and 2016 workshop settings. Results have informed subsequent agency’s aftershock forecast communications and product development. The latter study is conducted through the lens of long-term risk communication and explores aftershock forecast scenarios.
Below are research projects focusing on Hazards Societal Consequences and Risk Communication
Below are reports and journal articles published under the Hazards Societal Consequences and Risk Communication project.
Serious games experiment toward agent-based simulation
Overview of the ARkStorm scenario
The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to
The ShakeOut scenario: A hypothetical Mw7.8 earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault
Recovering from the ShakeOut earthquake
Economic impacts of the ShakeOut scenario
Economic resilience lessons from the ShakeOut earthquake scenario
Potential effects of a scenario earthquake on the economy of southern California: Labor market exposure and sensitivity analysis to a magnitude 7.8 earthquake
Increasing resiliency to natural hazards - A strategic plan for the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California
Below are news stories associated with this project.
Scientists gather at USGS to discuss findings from Napa quake
MENLO PARK, Calif. (KGO) --
Five months after the South Napa earthquake, scientists gathered on Wednesday at the U.S. Geological Survey to talk about what they're learning from it and what it means for the next big one here in the Bay Area.
Below are partners associated with this project.
- Overview
The Hazards Societal Consequences and Risk Communication project is led by Anne Wein at the Western Geographic Science Center (WGSC).
The umbrella project is Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR), which estimates consequences of natural hazard disaster scenarios as a strategy to engage decision-makers in increasing a community’s ability to cope with the effects of a disaster. Scenarios for earthquakes (ShakeOut, HayWired), a winter storm (ARkStorm), and a tsunami have been developed with partners and stakeholders to apply scientific information to community decision making and emergency management. The scenarios are constructed from a foundation of earth science describing the hazard events that are translated into physical and environmental damages, and social and economic consequences. WGSC's role has been geographical analyses, the coordination of societal consequences, and contracting of project evaluations. Experience with SAFRR scenarios has inspired and enabled other research in related areas of risk analysis and risk communication. One example is research about the communication of aftershock information during the Canterbury New Zealand earthquake sequence.
Geographical Analyses — The center has conducted and managed Geographical Information Systems (GIS) analyses across the science, engineering, environmental, and societal consequence aspects of the scenarios. Spatial analyses are used to map multiple hazards and estimate the exposures of or damages to populations, land uses, infrastructures, and buildings to these hazards.
Economic Consequences — Economic consequence analysis pertains to business interruption (productivity) losses due to physical damages, lifeline service outages, and ripple effects along supply chains. WGSC coordinates with lifeline operators (e.g., transportation agencies, electric power providers, and the telecommunications industry) on outage estimates. In catastrophic events when recovery languishes for many years, business interruption losses can exceed physical repair and replacement costs (e.g., Hurricane Katrina). The economic consequence analysis includes an investigation of economic resilience at the levels of firms, sectors, and the regional economy. In collaboration with the University of Southern California, Boston University and the Association of Bay Area Governments (since merged with the Metropolitan Transportation Commission), economic forecasting and policy analysis tools (e.g., Input-output, REMI, and computable general equilibrium models) are applied to estimate potential business interruption losses and economic resilience.
Community Recovery — Just as police and fire fighters need exercises to prepare for emergency response, so must the "second wave" of responders — city managers, planners, building officials, engineers, and other staff who will have local recovery responsibilities. Thus, the recovery phase of a disaster also deserves attention in scenario-based emergency management exercises. In collaboration with Laurie Johnson Consulting, Inc., the ShakeOut scenario was extended by populating a recovery model in consultation with communities. The HayWired scenario contains an integrated analysis of hazards, concentrated damage and demographic characteristics to identify communities at risk of population displacement and recovery challenges.
Evaluation — Analyses of surveys and interviews are used to evaluate the effectiveness of the SAFRR scenario development process, project outputs and communication of results for changes in awareness, knowledge, and action. WGSC has managed contracts for the Tsunami and HayWired scenarios for independent evaluation by the Natural Hazards Center Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, Boulder.
Risk Communication
The diversity of the HayWired scenario is examined with university partners including students with diverse life experiences by engaging with under-represented communities or organizations representing them. For example, the Diversifying HayWired Communication project.
In collaboration with GNS Science and Massey University in Aotearoa, New Zealand, WGSC with the earthquake science center (ESC) studied the communication of aftershock information during the 2010-present Canterbury earthquake sequence in 2013 and 2016 workshop settings. Results have informed subsequent agency’s aftershock forecast communications and product development. The latter study is conducted through the lens of long-term risk communication and explores aftershock forecast scenarios.
- Science
Below are research projects focusing on Hazards Societal Consequences and Risk Communication
- Publications
Below are reports and journal articles published under the Hazards Societal Consequences and Risk Communication project.
Filter Total Items: 20Serious games experiment toward agent-based simulation
We evaluate the potential for serious games to be used as a scientifically based decision-support product that supports the United States Geological Survey’s (USGS) mission--to provide integrated, unbiased scientific information that can make a substantial contribution to societal well-being for a wide variety of complex environmental challenges. Serious or pedagogical games are an engaging way toAuthorsAnne Wein, William LabiosaOverview of the ARkStorm scenario
The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to
AuthorsKeith Porter, Anne Wein, Charles N. Alpers, Allan Baez, Patrick L. Barnard, James Carter, Alessandra Corsi, James Costner, Dale Cox, Tapash Das, Mike Dettinger, James Done, Charles Eadie, Marcia Eymann, Justin Ferris, Prasad Gunturi, Mimi Hughes, Robert Jarrett, Laurie Johnson, Hanh Dam Le-Griffin, David Mitchell, Suzette Morman, Paul Neiman, Anna Olsen, Suzanne Perry, Geoffrey Plumlee, Martin Ralph, David Reynolds, Adam Rose, Kathleen Schaefer, Julie Serakos, William Siembieda, Jonathan D. Stock, David Strong, Ian Sue Wing, Alex Tang, Pete Thomas, Ken Topping, Chris Wills, Lucile JonesByNatural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Earthquake Hazards Program, Science Application for Risk Reduction, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Big Sur Landslides, Reducing Risk, San Francisco Bay and Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta EstuaryThe ShakeOut scenario: A hypothetical Mw7.8 earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault
In 2008, an earthquake-planning scenario document was released by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and California Geological Survey that hypothesizes the occurrence and effects of a Mw7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was created by more than 300 scientists and engineers. Fault offsets reach 13 m and up to 8 m at lifeline crossings. Physics-based modeling was used to generate mAuthorsK. Porter, L. Jones, D. Cox, J. Goltz, K. Hudnut, D. Mileti, S. Perry, D. Ponti, M. Reichle, A.Z. Rose, C.R. Scawthorn, H.A. Seligson, K.I. Shoaf, J. Treiman, A. WeinRecovering from the ShakeOut earthquake
Recovery from an earthquake like the M7.8 ShakeOut Scenario will be a major endeavor taking many years to complete. Hundreds of Southern California municipalities will be affected; most lack recovery plans or previous disaster experience. To support recovery planning this paper 1) extends the regional ShakeOut Scenario analysis into the recovery period using a recovery model, 2) localizes analysesAuthorsAnne Wein, Laurie Johnson, Richard BernknopfEconomic impacts of the ShakeOut scenario
For the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario, we estimate $68 billion in direct and indirect business interruption (BI) and $11 billion in related costs in addition to the $113 billion in property damage in an eight-county Southern California region. The modeled conduits of shock to the economy are property damage and lifeline service outages that affect the economy’s ability to produce. Property damage fAuthorsA. Rose, D. Wei, A. WeinEconomic resilience lessons from the ShakeOut earthquake scenario
Following a damaging earthquake, “business interruption” (BI)—reduced production of goods and services—begins and continues long after the ground shaking stops. Economic resilience reduces BI losses by making the best use of the resources available at a given point in time (static resilience) or by speeding recovery through repair and reconstruction (dynamic resilience), in contrast to mitigationAuthorsA. Wein, A. RosePotential effects of a scenario earthquake on the economy of southern California: Labor market exposure and sensitivity analysis to a magnitude 7.8 earthquake
The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and various partners from the public and private sectors and academia, meant to improve Southern California's resiliency to natural hazards (Jones and others, 2007). In support of the MHDP objectives, the ShakeOut Scenario was developed. It describes a magnitude 7.8 (M7.8) earthquake along tAuthorsBenson C. Sherrouse, D. J. Hester, Anne M. WeinIncreasing resiliency to natural hazards - A strategic plan for the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is initiating a new project designed to improve resiliency to natural hazards in southern California through the application of science to community decision making and emergency response. The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project will assist the region’s communities to reduce their risk from natural hazards by directing new and existing research towards the communiAuthorsLucy Jones, Richard Bernknopf, Susan Cannon, Dale A. Cox, Len Gaydos, Jon Keeley, Monica Kohler, Homa Lee, Daniel Ponti, Stephanie L. Ross, Steven Schwarzbach, Michael Shulters, A. Wesley Ward, Anne Wein - News
Below are news stories associated with this project.
Scientists gather at USGS to discuss findings from Napa quake
MENLO PARK, Calif. (KGO) --
Five months after the South Napa earthquake, scientists gathered on Wednesday at the U.S. Geological Survey to talk about what they're learning from it and what it means for the next big one here in the Bay Area.
- Partners
Below are partners associated with this project.