Hazards Vulnerability Team Active
Tsunami Evacuation Plans
One Size Does Not Fit All: A Case Study in Alameda, California
Our country faces a wide array of natural hazards that threaten its safety, security, economic well-being, and natural resources. To minimize future losses, communities need a clear understanding of how they are vulnerable to natural hazards and of strategies for increasing their resilience. Vulnerability and resilience are influenced by (1) how communities choose to use hazard-prone land, (2) pre-existing socioeconomic conditions, (3) likely future patterns of land change, and (4) current efforts to reduce and manage risks.
The objective of this project is to develop new ways of assessing and communicating community vulnerability and resilience to natural hazards. This work supports core elements of the USGS mission that focus on understanding land change and minimizing life loss and property damage from natural disasters. The project has completed work on all types of natural hazards, from sudden-onset extreme events (earthquakes, tsunamis, volcano lahars) to chronic events (sea level rise, coastal erosion).
Throughout the various research efforts and assessments, we have developed or improved methods for understanding and communicating societal vulnerability to natural hazards. This project has produced techniques-related articles on the following topics:
Geographical analysis
We use geographic information system (GIS) tools to estimate variations in community exposure of populations, land uses, infrastructures, and economic activities to natural hazards in various States. Exposure assessments have been completed based on maximum hazard zones, scenario-based zones, and comparisons of multiple hazard scenarios. GIS-based statistical analysis is also used to identify variations in demographic sensitivity across a community to natural hazards. We have also applied GIS tools to identify areas in a community with high hazards and societal assets, to demonstrate how landcover data can be used to characterize regional exposure to hazards and to improve population maps.
Spatial modeling
We use GIS to model pedestrian evacuation out of hazard zones, based on landcover, elevation, hazard, and population data. Results help local officials understand where successful evacuations are possible and where vertical-evacuation refuges may be warranted to help save lives. We also have developed GIS methods for helping to site vertical-evacuation refuges, as well as look at past disasters to compare fatality patterns and evacuation potential. To help others do their own pedestrian-evacuation modeling, we’ve created a GIS tool.
Stakeholder surveys
Community vulnerability to hazards cannot be completely understood using only GIS tools and socioeconomic data. Public perceptions and priorities related to hazards are also important elements. Therefore, we use community-based assessment workshops, community recovery forums, and surveys to better understand the human element in vulnerability.
Public engagement
An important part of this project has been training others in our methods so that they can carry out their own assessments. There have been several efforts of the years to share results and methods with emergency managers, local officials, the general public and students, such as “train-the-trainer” workshops related to tsunami preparedness, vulnerability assessment workshops for local emergency managers, and graduate short courses.
Below are pages summarizing natural hazards research conducted by the Hazards Vulnerability Team.
Below are multimedia items produced by the Hazards Vulnerability Team.
Below are journal arcticles and reports published by the Hazards Vulnerability Team.
Land cover and land use change
HERA: A dynamic web application for visualizing community exposure to flood hazards based on storm and sea level rise scenarios
Projecting community changes in hazard exposure to support long-term risk reduction: A case study of tsunami hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest
Community disruptions and business costs for distant tsunami evacuations using maximum versus scenario-based zones
Influence of road network and population demand assumptions in evacuation modeling for distant tsunamis
Community exposure to potential climate-driven changes to coastal-inundation hazards for six communities in Essex County, Massachusetts
Pedestrian flow-path modeling to support tsunami evacuation and disaster relief planning in the U.S. Pacific Northwest
Community exposure to tsunami hazards in Hawai‘i
Beat-the-wave evacuation mapping for tsunami hazards in Seaside, Oregon, USA
Intra-community implications of implementing multiple tsunami-evacuation zones in Alameda, California
Community clusters of tsunami vulnerability in the US Pacific Northwest
The Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst: geographic information systems software for modeling hazard evacuation potential
Below are web applications created by the Hazards Vulnerability Team.
Below is software created by the Hazards Vulnerability Team
Below are news stories about the Hazards Vulnerability Team's science.
Below are partners who work with the Hazards Vulnerability Team.
- Overview
Our country faces a wide array of natural hazards that threaten its safety, security, economic well-being, and natural resources. To minimize future losses, communities need a clear understanding of how they are vulnerable to natural hazards and of strategies for increasing their resilience. Vulnerability and resilience are influenced by (1) how communities choose to use hazard-prone land, (2) pre-existing socioeconomic conditions, (3) likely future patterns of land change, and (4) current efforts to reduce and manage risks.
The objective of this project is to develop new ways of assessing and communicating community vulnerability and resilience to natural hazards. This work supports core elements of the USGS mission that focus on understanding land change and minimizing life loss and property damage from natural disasters. The project has completed work on all types of natural hazards, from sudden-onset extreme events (earthquakes, tsunamis, volcano lahars) to chronic events (sea level rise, coastal erosion).Throughout the various research efforts and assessments, we have developed or improved methods for understanding and communicating societal vulnerability to natural hazards. This project has produced techniques-related articles on the following topics:
Geographical analysis
We use geographic information system (GIS) tools to estimate variations in community exposure of populations, land uses, infrastructures, and economic activities to natural hazards in various States. Exposure assessments have been completed based on maximum hazard zones, scenario-based zones, and comparisons of multiple hazard scenarios. GIS-based statistical analysis is also used to identify variations in demographic sensitivity across a community to natural hazards. We have also applied GIS tools to identify areas in a community with high hazards and societal assets, to demonstrate how landcover data can be used to characterize regional exposure to hazards and to improve population maps.
Spatial modeling
We use GIS to model pedestrian evacuation out of hazard zones, based on landcover, elevation, hazard, and population data. Results help local officials understand where successful evacuations are possible and where vertical-evacuation refuges may be warranted to help save lives. We also have developed GIS methods for helping to site vertical-evacuation refuges, as well as look at past disasters to compare fatality patterns and evacuation potential. To help others do their own pedestrian-evacuation modeling, we’ve created a GIS tool.
Stakeholder surveys
Community vulnerability to hazards cannot be completely understood using only GIS tools and socioeconomic data. Public perceptions and priorities related to hazards are also important elements. Therefore, we use community-based assessment workshops, community recovery forums, and surveys to better understand the human element in vulnerability.
Public engagement
An important part of this project has been training others in our methods so that they can carry out their own assessments. There have been several efforts of the years to share results and methods with emergency managers, local officials, the general public and students, such as “train-the-trainer” workshops related to tsunami preparedness, vulnerability assessment workshops for local emergency managers, and graduate short courses.
- Science
Below are pages summarizing natural hazards research conducted by the Hazards Vulnerability Team.
- Multimedia
Below are multimedia items produced by the Hazards Vulnerability Team.
- Publications
Below are journal arcticles and reports published by the Hazards Vulnerability Team.
Filter Total Items: 36Land cover and land use change
Climate can affect and be affected by changes in land cover (the physical features that cover the land such as trees or pavement) and land use (human management and activities on land, such as mining or recreation). A forest, for instance, would likely include tree cover but could also include areas of recent tree removals currently covered by open grass areas. Land cover and use are inherently coAuthorsBenjamin M. Sleeter, Thomas Loveland, Grant Domke, Nate Herold, James Wickham, Nathan J. WoodHERA: A dynamic web application for visualizing community exposure to flood hazards based on storm and sea level rise scenarios
The Hazard Exposure Reporting and Analytics (HERA) dynamic web application was created to provide a platform that makes research on community exposure to coastal-flooding hazards influenced by sea level rise accessible to planners, decision makers, and the public in a manner that is both easy to use and easily accessible. HERA allows users to (a) choose flood-hazard scenarios based on sea level riAuthorsJeanne M. Jones, Kevin Henry, Nathan J. Wood, Peter Ng, Matthew JamiesonProjecting community changes in hazard exposure to support long-term risk reduction: A case study of tsunami hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest
Tsunamis have the potential to cause considerable damage to communities along the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline. As coastal communities expand over time, the potential societal impact of tsunami inundation changes. To understand how community exposure to tsunami hazards may change in coming decades, we projected future development (i.e. urban, residential, and rural), households, and residentsAuthorsBenjamin M. Sleeter, Nathan J. Wood, Christopher E. Soulard, Tamara S. WilsonCommunity disruptions and business costs for distant tsunami evacuations using maximum versus scenario-based zones
Well-executed evacuations are key to minimizing loss of life from tsunamis, yet they also disrupt communities and business productivity in the process. Most coastal communities implement evacuations based on a previously delineated maximum-inundation zone that integrates zones from multiple tsunami sources. To support consistent evacuation planning that protects lives but attempts to minimize commAuthorsNathan J. Wood, Rick I. Wilson, Jamie L. Ratliff, Jeff Peters, Ed MacMullan, Tessa Krebs, Kimberley Shoaf, Kevin MillerInfluence of road network and population demand assumptions in evacuation modeling for distant tsunamis
Tsunami evacuation planning in coastal communities is typically focused on local events where at-risk individuals must move on foot in a matter of minutes to safety. Less attention has been placed on distant tsunamis, where evacuations unfold over several hours, are often dominated by vehicle use and are managed by public safety officials. Traditional traffic simulation models focus on estimatingAuthorsKevin Henry, Nathan J. Wood, Tim G. FrazierCommunity exposure to potential climate-driven changes to coastal-inundation hazards for six communities in Essex County, Massachusetts
IntroductionUnderstanding if and how community exposure to coastal hazards may change over time is crucial information for coastal managers tasked with developing climate adaptation plans. This report summarizes estimates of population and asset exposure to coastal-inundation hazards associated with sea-level-rise and storm scenarios in six coastal communities of the Great Marsh region of Essex CoAuthorsNina Abdollahian, Jamie L. Ratliff, Nathan J. WoodPedestrian flow-path modeling to support tsunami evacuation and disaster relief planning in the U.S. Pacific Northwest
Successful evacuations are critical to saving lives from future tsunamis. Pedestrian-evacuation modeling related to tsunami hazards primarily has focused on identifying areas and the number of people in these areas where successful evacuations are unlikely. Less attention has been paid to identifying evacuation pathways and population demand at assembly areas for at-risk individuals that may haveAuthorsNathan J. Wood, Jeanne M. Jones, Mathew Schmidtlein, John Schelling, T. FrazierCommunity exposure to tsunami hazards in Hawai‘i
Hawai‘i has experienced numerous destructive tsunamis and the potential for future inundation has been described over the years using various historical events and scenarios. To support tsunami preparedness and risk-reduction planning in Hawai‘i, this study documents the variations among 91 coastal communities and 4 counties in the amounts, types, and percentages of developed land, residents, emplAuthorsJamie L. Jones, Matthew R. Jamieson, Nathan J. WoodBeat-the-wave evacuation mapping for tsunami hazards in Seaside, Oregon, USA
Previous pedestrian evacuation modeling for tsunamis has not considered variable wave arrival times or critical junctures (e.g., bridges), nor does it effectively communicate multiple evacuee travel speeds. We summarize an approach that identifies evacuation corridors, recognizes variable wave arrival times, and produces a map of minimum pedestrian travel speeds to reach safety, termed a “beat-theAuthorsGeorge R. Priest, Laura Stimely, Nathan J. Wood, Ian Madin, Rudie WatzigIntra-community implications of implementing multiple tsunami-evacuation zones in Alameda, California
Tsunami-evacuation planning in coastal communities is typically based on maximum evacuation zones for a single scenario or a composite of sources; however, this approach may over-evacuate a community and overly disrupt the local economy and strain emergency-service resources. To minimize the potential for future over-evacuations, multiple evacuation zones based on arrival time and inundation extenAuthorsJeff Peters, Nathan J. Wood, Rick Wilson, Kevin MillerCommunity clusters of tsunami vulnerability in the US Pacific Northwest
Many coastal communities throughout the world are threatened by local (or near-field) tsunamis that could inundate low-lying areas in a matter of minutes after generation. Although the hazard and sustainability literature often frames vulnerability conceptually as a multidimensional issue involving exposure, sensitivity, and resilience to a hazard, assessments often focus on one element or do notAuthorsNathan J. Wood, Jeanne M. Jones, Seth Spielman, Mathew C. SchmidtleinThe Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst: geographic information systems software for modeling hazard evacuation potential
Recent disasters such as the 2011 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake and tsunami; the 2013 Colorado floods; and the 2014 Oso, Washington, mudslide have raised awareness of catastrophic, sudden-onset hazards that arrive within minutes of the events that trigger them, such as local earthquakes or landslides. Due to the limited amount of time between generation and arrival of sudden-onset hazards, evacuationsAuthorsJeanne M. Jones, Peter Ng, Nathan J. Wood - Web Tools
Below are web applications created by the Hazards Vulnerability Team.
- Software
Below is software created by the Hazards Vulnerability Team
- News
Below are news stories about the Hazards Vulnerability Team's science.
- Partners
Below are partners who work with the Hazards Vulnerability Team.