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Publications

Publications, scientific literature, and information products from the Land Change Science Program.

Filter Total Items: 562

Surface melt dominates Alaska glacier mass balance

Mountain glaciers comprise a small and widely distributed fraction of the world's terrestrial ice, yet their rapid losses presently drive a large percentage of the cryosphere's contribution to sea level rise. Regional mass balance assessments are challenging over large glacier populations due to remote and rugged geography, variable response of individual glaciers to climate change, and episodic c
Authors
Larsen Chris F, E Burgess, A.A. Arendt, Shad O'Neel, A. J. Johnson, C. Kienholz

Coastal and wetland ecosystems of the Chesapeake Bay watershed: Applying palynology to understand impacts of changing climate, sea level, and land use

The mid-Atlantic region and Chesapeake Bay watershed have been influenced by fluctuations in climate and sea level since the Cretaceous, and human alteration of the landscape began ~12,000 years ago, with greatest impacts since colonial times. Efforts to devise sustainable management strategies that maximize ecosystem services are integrating data from a range of scientific disciplines to understa
Authors
Debra A. Willard, Christopher E. Bernhardt, Cliff R. Hupp, Wayne L. Newell

Regional variability in dust-on-snow processes and impacts in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Dust deposition onto mountain snow cover in the Upper Colorado River Basin frequently occurs in the spring when wind speeds and dust emission peaks on the nearby Colorado Plateau. Dust loading has increased since the intensive settlement in the western USA in the mid 1880s. The effects of dust-on-snow have been well studied at Senator Beck Basin Study Area (SBBSA) in the San Juan Mountains, CO, th
Authors
S. McKenzie Skiles, Thomas H. Painter, Jayne Belnap, Lacey Holland, Richard L. Reynolds, Harland L. Goldstein, J. Lin

Summer declines in activity and body temperature offer polar bears limited energy savings

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) summer on the sea ice or, where it melts, on shore. Although the physiology of “ice” bears in summer is unknown, “shore” bears purportedly minimize energy losses by entering a hibernation-like state when deprived of food. Such a strategy could partially compensate for the loss of on-ice foraging opportunities caused by climate change. However, here we report gradual,
Authors
J.P. Whiteman, H.J. Harlow, George M. Durner, R. Anderson-Sprecher, Shannon E. Albeke, Eric V. Regehr, Steven C. Amstrup, M. Ben-David

Evidence of a higher late-Holocene treeline along the Continental Divide in central Colorado

Using a combination of 23 radiocarbon ages and annual ring counts from 18 Rocky Mountain bristlecone pine (Pinus aristata) remnants above the local present-day limits, a period of higher treeline has been determined for two sites near the Continental Divide in central Colorado. The highest remnants were found about 30 m above live bristlecone pines of similar size. The majority of the remnants, co
Authors
Paul E. Carrara, John McGeehin

Linking degradation status with ecosystem vulnerability to environmental change

Environmental change can cause regime shifts in ecosystems, potentially threatening ecosystem services. It is unclear if the degradation status of ecosystems correlates with their vulnerability to environmental change, and thus the risk of future regime shifts. We assessed resilience in acidified (degraded) and circumneutral (undegraded) lakes with long-term data (1988–2012), using time series mod
Authors
David G. Angeler, Didier L. Baho, Craig R. Allen, Richard K. Johnson

Water's Way at Sleepers River watershed – revisiting flow generation in a post-glacial landscape, Vermont USA

The Sleepers River Research Watershed (SRRW) in Vermont, USA, has been the site of active hydrologic research since 1959 and was the setting where Dunne and Black demonstrated the importance and controls of saturation-excess overland flow (SOF) on streamflow generation. Here, we review the early studies from the SRRW and show how they guided our conceptual approach to hydrologic research at the SR
Authors
James B. Shanley, Stephen D. Sebestyen, Jeffrey J. McDonnell, Brian L. McGlynn, Thomas Dunne

Improving estimates of tree mortality probability using potential growth rate

Tree growth rate is frequently used to estimate mortality probability. Yet, growth metrics can vary in form, and the justification for using one over another is rarely clear. We tested whether a growth index (GI) that scales the realized diameter growth rate against the potential diameter growth rate (PDGR) would give better estimates of mortality probability than other measures. We also tested wh
Authors
Adrian J. Das, Nathan L. Stephenson

Darcy’s law predicts widespread forest mortality under climate warming

Drought and heat-induced tree mortality is accelerating in many forest biomes as a consequence of a warming climate, resulting in a threat to global forests unlike any in recorded history. Forests store the majority of terrestrial carbon, thus their loss may have significant and sustained impacts on the global carbon cycle. We use a hydraulic corollary to Darcy’s law, a core principle of vascular
Authors
Nate G. McDowell, Craig D. Allen

Organic carbon burial in lakes and reservoirs of the conterminous United States

Organic carbon (OC) burial in lacustrine sediments represents an important sink in the global carbon cycle; however, large-scale OC burial rates are poorly constrained, primarily because of the sparseness of available data sets. Here we present an analysis of OC burial rates in water bodies of the conterminous U.S. (CONUS) that takes advantage of recently developed national-scale data sets on rese
Authors
David W. Clow, Sarah M. Stackpoole, Kristine L. Verdin, David E. Butman, Zhi-Liang Zhu, David P. Krabbenhoft, Robert G. Striegl

Landscape disturbance from unconventional and conventional oil and gas development in the Marcellus Shale region of Pennsylvania, USA

The spatial footprint of unconventional (hydraulic fracturing) and conventional oil and gas development in the Marcellus Shale region of the State of Pennsylvania was digitized from high-resolution, ortho-rectified, digital aerial photography, from 2004 to 2010. We used these data to measure the spatial extent of oil and gas development and to assess the exposure of the extant natural resources ac
Authors
Terry E. Slonecker, Lesley E. Milheim

Effects of ungulate disturbance and weather variation on Pediocactus winkleri: Insights from long-term monitoring

Population dynamics and effects of large ungulate disturbances on Winkler cactus (Pediocactus winkleri K.D. Heil) were documented annually over a 20-year time span at one plot within Capitol Reef National Park, Utah. This cactus species was federally listed as threatened in 1998. The study began in 1995 to gain a better understanding of life history aspects and threats to this species. Data were c
Authors
Deborah J. Clark, Thomas O. Clark, Michael C. Duniway, Cody B. Flagg