Publications

Each day, the U.S. Geological Survey produces 7-day forecasts for all Federal lands of the distributions of number of ignitions, number of fires above a given size, and conditional probabilities of fires growing larger than a specified size. The large fire probability map is an estimate of the likelihood that ignitions will become large fires. The large fire forecast map is a probability estimate

Increased demands for cleaner burning energy, coupled with the relatively recent technological advances in accessing unconventional hydrocarbon-rich geologic formations, led to an intense effort to find and extract natural gas from various underground sources around the country. One of these sources, the Marcellus Shale, located in the Allegheny Plateau, is undergoing extensive drilling and produc

The current study presents a statistical model for assessing the skill of fire danger indices and for forecasting the distribution of the expected numbers of large fires over a given region and for the upcoming week. The procedure permits development of daily maps that forecast, for the forthcoming week and within federal lands, percentiles of the distributions of (i) number of ignitions; (ii) num

Modern dusts across southwestern United States deserts are compositionally similar to dust-rich Av soil horizons (depths of 0-0.5 cm and 1-4 cm at 35 sites) for common crustal elements but distinctly different for some trace elements. Chemical compositions and magnetic properties of the soil samples are similar among sites relative to dust sources, geographic areas, and lithologic substrates. Exce

Central Alaska is ecologically sensitive and experiencing stress in response to marked regional warming. Resource managers would benefit from an improved ability to monitor ecosystem processes in response to climate change, fire, insect damage, and management policies and to predict responses to future climate scenarios. We have developed a method for analyzing ecosystem performance as represented

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has advanced the use of moderate-resolution satellite data in a decision support system for assessing national fire potential. Weekly updated digital images of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), based on data acquired at 1-kilometer (km) resolution (about 0.6 mi), have been used for the past 19 years as a means to assess live vegetation conditions

While ‘Fire Danger’ per se cannot be measured, the physical properties of the biotic and abiotic world that relate to fire occurrence and fire behavior can. Today, increasingly sophisticated Remote Sensing methods are being developed to more accurately detect fuel properties such as species composition (fuel types), vegetation structure or plant water content - to name a few. Based on meteorologic

The conversion of land from its native state to an agricultural use commonly results in a significant loss of soil carbon (Mann, 1985; Davidson and Ackerman, 1993). Globally, this loss is estimated to account for as much as 1/3 of the net CO2 emissions for the period of 1850 to 1980 (Houghton and others, 1983). Roughly 20 to 40 percent of original soil carbon is estimated to be lost as CO2 as a re

The effect of the age of geomorphic surfaces on the recovery of desert vegetation in military target sites was studied in the Mohave and Cerbat Mountains of northwestern Arizona. The target sites were cleared of all vegetation during military exercises in 1942-1943 and have not been subsequently disturbed. The degree of recovery was measured by calculating percentage-similarity (PS) and correlatio

Salinity oscillations caused by multidecadal climatic variability had major impacts on the Chesapeake Bay estuarine ecosystem during the past 1000 yr. Microfossils from sediments dated by radiometry (14C, 137Cs, 210Pb) and pollen stratigraphy indicate that salinity in mesohaline regions oscillated 10-15 ppt during periods of extreme drought (low fresh-water discharge) and wet climate (high dischar