Future Scenarios of Land Use and Land Cover Change for Integrated Resources Assessment Active
This research project aims to develop a portfolio approach to development of land change scenarios for the United States based on empirical data and global integrated assessment modeling.This research will continue the development and capabilities of the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS), which has been developed by USGS scientists for the purposes of projecting land change and its impact on ecosystem carbon dynamics.
Statement of Problem: Climate change and the potential adoption and implementation of mitigation and/or adaptation strategies are important aspects to projecting future land change. Climate change impacts land-use through alteration of biophysical characteristics that control suitability for a given land use, while land change impacts climate through alteration of surface and atmospheric boundaries and resultant energy and water fluxes. This research examines important interactions between land use and climate under a range of future conditions in order to identify regions which are most at risk to negative impacts and where climate-land interactions provide new potential opportunities. Additionally, the biosphere offers opportunities for climate mitigation through the offset of greenhouse-gas emissions. Research should further our understanding of how climate mitigation and adaptation strategies might evolve and impact the composition and trajectories of important land sectors.
Research is needed to develop geostatistical approaches to projecting land change based on empirical data. Additionally, future projections should incorporate causal mechanisms where possible, such as abrupt policy interventions (e.g. Conservation Reserve Program, Endangered Species Act), economic drivers (e.g. Great Recession), and environmental drivers (e.g. episodic and prolonged drought, climate change, wildfire). This research should aim to develop a portfolio approach to land change projection and work to robustly characterize, and reduce where possible, the large uncertainties associated with land-change prediction, forecasting, and projection.
Why this Research is Important: The recognition of the need for improving the understanding and management of climate and land change is longstanding. The National Research Council identified this issue as one of the 21st century grand challenges, it is a formal element of the US Global Change Research Program and relates to the central goals of the Climate Action Plan. The USGS Climate and Land Use Change science strategy also identifies the need to improve the understanding of the combined effects of climate and land use change. Because resource managers are keenly aware of the threats that climate and land use change have on their management goals, and are asking for information on land use, cover, and condition for their activities, research on climate and land change questions should be an important element of the USGS Land Change Science Program.
Objective(s):
- Develop geostatistical methods for developing a portfolio of empirical-based projections of land-use and land-cover change for the United States over short (10-20 years), medium (20-50 years), and long-time horizons (50-100 years). Scenarios will explore changes in major land use conversions, including urbanization, expansion and contraction of agriculture, and forestry, as well as changes in land cover due to natural disturbances (e.g. wildfire, insect/disease) and climate change.
- Develop a coupled modeling capability which can be used to explore the impacts of potential climate-based mitigation and adaptation strategies on changes in land use and land cover from local to global scales.
- Work with local, regional, and national stakeholders to develop alternative scenarios of land change (e.g. “what-if” scenarios) based on local, regional, and national driving forces analysis and policy-based assumptions.
Methods: This project will develop an entirely new set of statistical tools, methods, and models to project land change over short, medium, and long-time horizons across a range of spatial scales. Additionally, this research will develop new modeling approaches to link coarse-scale global integrated assessment models (IAM’s) with empirically-based land change forecasting methods. Lastly, this research will need to develop cutting-edge computational capabilities, including parallelization of models for deployment on high performance computing facilities. Currently, work has been done utilizing USGS compute facilities in Denver, CO as well as on the NASA Earth Exchange.
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Below are publications associated with this project.
Downscaling global land-use/land-cover projections for use in region-level state-and-transition simulation modeling
Methods used to parameterize the spatially-explicit components of a state-and-transition simulation model
Landscape disturbance from unconventional and conventional oil and gas development in the Marcellus Shale region of Pennsylvania, USA
Land-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios
Land-use threats and protected areas: a scenario-based, landscape level approach
Spatially explicit modeling of 1992-2100 land cover and forest stand age for the conterminous United States
Landscape consequences of natural gas extraction in Beaver and Butler Counties, Pennsylvania, 2004-2010
Landscape consequences of natural gas extraction in Lackawanna and Wayne Counties, Pennsylvania, 2004-2010
Recent land-use/land-cover change in the Central California Valley
Late twentieth century land-cover change in the basin and range ecoregions of the United States
- Overview
This research project aims to develop a portfolio approach to development of land change scenarios for the United States based on empirical data and global integrated assessment modeling.This research will continue the development and capabilities of the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS), which has been developed by USGS scientists for the purposes of projecting land change and its impact on ecosystem carbon dynamics.
Statement of Problem: Climate change and the potential adoption and implementation of mitigation and/or adaptation strategies are important aspects to projecting future land change. Climate change impacts land-use through alteration of biophysical characteristics that control suitability for a given land use, while land change impacts climate through alteration of surface and atmospheric boundaries and resultant energy and water fluxes. This research examines important interactions between land use and climate under a range of future conditions in order to identify regions which are most at risk to negative impacts and where climate-land interactions provide new potential opportunities. Additionally, the biosphere offers opportunities for climate mitigation through the offset of greenhouse-gas emissions. Research should further our understanding of how climate mitigation and adaptation strategies might evolve and impact the composition and trajectories of important land sectors.
Research is needed to develop geostatistical approaches to projecting land change based on empirical data. Additionally, future projections should incorporate causal mechanisms where possible, such as abrupt policy interventions (e.g. Conservation Reserve Program, Endangered Species Act), economic drivers (e.g. Great Recession), and environmental drivers (e.g. episodic and prolonged drought, climate change, wildfire). This research should aim to develop a portfolio approach to land change projection and work to robustly characterize, and reduce where possible, the large uncertainties associated with land-change prediction, forecasting, and projection.
Why this Research is Important: The recognition of the need for improving the understanding and management of climate and land change is longstanding. The National Research Council identified this issue as one of the 21st century grand challenges, it is a formal element of the US Global Change Research Program and relates to the central goals of the Climate Action Plan. The USGS Climate and Land Use Change science strategy also identifies the need to improve the understanding of the combined effects of climate and land use change. Because resource managers are keenly aware of the threats that climate and land use change have on their management goals, and are asking for information on land use, cover, and condition for their activities, research on climate and land change questions should be an important element of the USGS Land Change Science Program.
Objective(s):
- Develop geostatistical methods for developing a portfolio of empirical-based projections of land-use and land-cover change for the United States over short (10-20 years), medium (20-50 years), and long-time horizons (50-100 years). Scenarios will explore changes in major land use conversions, including urbanization, expansion and contraction of agriculture, and forestry, as well as changes in land cover due to natural disturbances (e.g. wildfire, insect/disease) and climate change.
- Develop a coupled modeling capability which can be used to explore the impacts of potential climate-based mitigation and adaptation strategies on changes in land use and land cover from local to global scales.
- Work with local, regional, and national stakeholders to develop alternative scenarios of land change (e.g. “what-if” scenarios) based on local, regional, and national driving forces analysis and policy-based assumptions.
Methods: This project will develop an entirely new set of statistical tools, methods, and models to project land change over short, medium, and long-time horizons across a range of spatial scales. Additionally, this research will develop new modeling approaches to link coarse-scale global integrated assessment models (IAM’s) with empirically-based land change forecasting methods. Lastly, this research will need to develop cutting-edge computational capabilities, including parallelization of models for deployment on high performance computing facilities. Currently, work has been done utilizing USGS compute facilities in Denver, CO as well as on the NASA Earth Exchange.
- Science
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
- Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Filter Total Items: 22Downscaling global land-use/land-cover projections for use in region-level state-and-transition simulation modeling
Global land-use/land-cover (LULC) change projections and historical datasets are typically available at coarse grid resolutions and are often incompatible with modeling applications at local to regional scales. The difficulty of downscaling and reapportioning global gridded LULC change projections to regional boundaries is a barrier to the use of these datasets in a state-and-transition simulationAuthorsJason T. Sherba, Benjamin M. Sleeter, Adam W. Davis, Owen P. ParkerMethods used to parameterize the spatially-explicit components of a state-and-transition simulation model
Spatially-explicit state-and-transition simulation models of land use and land cover (LULC) increase our ability to assess regional landscape characteristics and associated carbon dynamics across multiple scenarios. By characterizing appropriate spatial attributes such as forest age and land-use distribution, a state-and-transition model can more effectively simulate the pattern and spread of LULCAuthorsRachel Sleeter, William Acevedo, Christopher E. Soulard, Benjamin M. SleeterLandscape disturbance from unconventional and conventional oil and gas development in the Marcellus Shale region of Pennsylvania, USA
The spatial footprint of unconventional (hydraulic fracturing) and conventional oil and gas development in the Marcellus Shale region of the State of Pennsylvania was digitized from high-resolution, ortho-rectified, digital aerial photography, from 2004 to 2010. We used these data to measure the spatial extent of oil and gas development and to assess the exposure of the extant natural resources acAuthorsTerry E. Slonecker, Lesley E. MilheimLand-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios
Human land use will increasingly contribute to habitat loss and water shortages in California, given future population projections and associated land-use demand. Understanding how land-use change may impact future water use and where existing protected areas may be threatened by land-use conversion will be important if effective, sustainable management approaches are to be implemented. We used aAuthorsTamara S. Wilson, Benjamin M. Sleeter, Jason T. Sherba, Dick CameronLand-use threats and protected areas: a scenario-based, landscape level approach
Anthropogenic land use will likely present a greater challenge to biodiversity than climate change this century in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Even if species are equipped with the adaptive capacity to migrate in the face of a changing climate, they will likely encounter a human-dominated landscape as a major dispersal obstacle. Our goal was to identify, at the ecoregion-level, protected areas inAuthorsTamara S. Wilson, Benjamin M. Sleeter, Rachel R. Sleeter, Christopher E. SoulardSpatially explicit modeling of 1992-2100 land cover and forest stand age for the conterminous United States
Information on future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is needed to analyze the impact of LULC change on ecological processes. The U.S. Geological Survey has produced spatially explicit, thematically detailed LULC projections for the conterminous United States. Four qualitative and quantitative scenarios of LULC change were developed, with characteristics consistent with the IntergovernmentalAuthorsTerry L. Sohl, Kristi Sayler, Michelle Bouchard, Ryan R. Reker, Aaron M. Friesz, Stacie L. Bennett, Benjamin M. Sleeter, Rachel R. Sleeter, Tamara S. Wilson, Christopher E. Soulard, Michelle Knuppe, Travis Van HofwegenLandscape consequences of natural gas extraction in Beaver and Butler Counties, Pennsylvania, 2004-2010
Increased demands for cleaner burning energy, coupled with the relatively recent technological advances in accessing unconventional hydrocarbon-rich geologic formations, have led to an intense effort to find and extract natural gas from various underground sources around the country. One of these sources, the Marcellus Shale, located in the Allegheny Plateau, is currently undergoing extensive drilAuthorsCoral M. Roig-Silva, E. Terry Slonecker, Lesley E. Milheim, Alexander R. MaliziaLandscape consequences of natural gas extraction in Lackawanna and Wayne Counties, Pennsylvania, 2004-2010
Increased demands for cleaner burning energy, coupled with the relatively recent technological advances in accessing unconventional hydrocarbon-rich geologic formations, have led to an intense effort to find and extract natural gas from various underground sources around the country. One of these sources, the Marcellus Shale, located in the Allegheny Plateau, is currently undergoing extensive drilAuthorsL.E. Milheim, E.T. Slonecker, C.M. Roig-Silva, A.R. MaliziaRecent land-use/land-cover change in the Central California Valley
Open access to Landsat satellite data has enabled annual analyses of modern land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) for the Central California Valley ecoregion between 2005 and 2010. Our annual LULCC estimates capture landscape-level responses to water policy changes, climate, and economic instability. From 2005 to 2010, agriculture in the region fluctuated along with regulatory-driven changes in wAuthorsChristopher E. Soulard, Tamara S. WilsonLate twentieth century land-cover change in the basin and range ecoregions of the United States
As part of the US Geological Survey's Land Cover Trends project, land-use/land-cover change estimates between 1973 and 2000 are presented for the basin and range ecoregions, including Northern, Central, Mojave, and Sonoran. Landsat data were employed to estimate and characterize land-cover change from 1973, 1980, 1986, 1992, and 2000 using a post-classification comparison. Overall, spatial changeAuthorsChristopher E. Soulard, Benjamin M. Sleeter