Frequent Fliers—Web-Based Tool Aids in Understanding the Role of Wild Birds in Transmission of Avian Influenza Completed
Avian Influenza Transmission Risk Model Web Application
This visualization tool helps researchers and public health officials see how relations between poultry density and waterfowl migration routes affect the threat of avian influenza to people and the poultry industry.
The emergence of highly pathogenic strains of avian influenza, commonly referred to as bird flu, is a serious threat to our global economy and human health. The primary threat posed by highly pathogenic avian influenza comes from the high mortality rate in domestic (and sometimes wild) birds, which can cause significant economic losses. The secondary threat from highly pathogenic avian influenza is the possibility of human infection. Although instances of avian influenza becoming lethal to humans are rare, such infections are possible, such as when the Asian H5N1 virus evolved to incur a 60-percent case-fatality rate in humans.
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists have been at the forefront of avian influenza research and are making great strides in improving our understanding of how this disease emerges and spreads. Recent research has resulted in a risk model for the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza based on the ability of domestic birds to encounter wild fowl across space and time. The model incorporates key factors including the density of potential disease spreaders, viral uptake and shedding rates, and human density, which provides a comprehensive look at the many factors associated with the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza. The Avian Influenza Visualization Tool makes this model easier to use so citizens and scientists alike can now see how these factors affect the risk of avian influenza transmission at this interface.
This research is supported by the U.S. Geological Survey Ecosystem Mission Area's Environmental Health Program (Contaminant Biology and Toxic Substances Hydrology) and Wildlife: Terrestrial and Endangered Resources Program.
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See below for publications related to this research.
Spatial modeling of wild bird risk factors to investigate highly pathogenic A(H5N1) avian influenza virus transmission
Modelling the distribution of chickens, ducks, and geese in China
Victims and vectors: highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 and the ecology of wild birds
- Overview
This visualization tool helps researchers and public health officials see how relations between poultry density and waterfowl migration routes affect the threat of avian influenza to people and the poultry industry.
The emergence of highly pathogenic strains of avian influenza, commonly referred to as bird flu, is a serious threat to our global economy and human health. The primary threat posed by highly pathogenic avian influenza comes from the high mortality rate in domestic (and sometimes wild) birds, which can cause significant economic losses. The secondary threat from highly pathogenic avian influenza is the possibility of human infection. Although instances of avian influenza becoming lethal to humans are rare, such infections are possible, such as when the Asian H5N1 virus evolved to incur a 60-percent case-fatality rate in humans.
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists have been at the forefront of avian influenza research and are making great strides in improving our understanding of how this disease emerges and spreads. Recent research has resulted in a risk model for the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza based on the ability of domestic birds to encounter wild fowl across space and time. The model incorporates key factors including the density of potential disease spreaders, viral uptake and shedding rates, and human density, which provides a comprehensive look at the many factors associated with the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza. The Avian Influenza Visualization Tool makes this model easier to use so citizens and scientists alike can now see how these factors affect the risk of avian influenza transmission at this interface.
This research is supported by the U.S. Geological Survey Ecosystem Mission Area's Environmental Health Program (Contaminant Biology and Toxic Substances Hydrology) and Wildlife: Terrestrial and Endangered Resources Program.
More Information
- Publications
See below for publications related to this research.
Spatial modeling of wild bird risk factors to investigate highly pathogenic A(H5N1) avian influenza virus transmission
One of the longest-persisting avian influenza viruses in history, highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) A(H5N1), continues to evolve after 18 years, advancing the threat of a global pandemic. Wild waterfowl (family Anatidae), are reported as secondary transmitters of HPAIV, and primary reservoirs for low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses, yet spatial inputs for disease risk modeling forAuthorsDiann J. Prosser, Laura L. Hungerford, R. Michael Erwin, Mary Ann Ottinger, John Y. Takekawa, Scott H. Newman, Xianming Xiao, Erie C. EllisModelling the distribution of chickens, ducks, and geese in China
Global concerns over the emergence of zoonotic pandemics emphasize the need for high-resolution population distribution mapping and spatial modelling. Ongoing efforts to model disease risk in China have been hindered by a lack of available species level distribution maps for poultry. The goal of this study was to develop 1 km resolution population density models for China's chickens, ducks, and geAuthorsDiann J. Prosser, Junxi Wu, Erie C. Ellis, Fred Gale, Thomas P. Van Boeckel, William Wint, Tim Robinson, Xiangming Xiao, Marius GilbertVictims and vectors: highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 and the ecology of wild birds
The emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses has raised concerns about the role of wild birds in the spread and persistence of the disease. In 2005, an outbreak of the highly pathogenic subtype H5N1 killed more than 6,000 wild waterbirds at Qinghai Lake, China. Outbreaks have continued to periodically occur in wild birds at Qinghai Lake and elsewhere in Central China and MongoAuthorsJohn Y. Takekawa, Diann J. Prosser, Scott H. Newman, Sabir Bin Muzaffar, Nichola J. Hill, Baoping Yan, Xiangming Xiao, Fumin Lei, Tianxian Li, Steven E. Schwarzbach, Judd A. Howell