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Publications

Publications, scientific literature, and information products from the Land Change Science Program.

Filter Total Items: 562

From pools to flow: The PROMISE framework for new insights on soil carbon cycling in a changing world

Soils represent the largest terrestrial reservoir of organic carbon, and the balance between soil organic carbon (SOC) formation and loss will drive powerful carbon‐climate feedbacks over the coming century. To date, efforts to predict SOC dynamics have rested on pool‐based models, which assume classes of SOC with internally homogenous physicochemical properties. However, emerging evidence suggest
Authors
Bonnie G. Waring, Benjamin N. Sulman, Sasha C. Reed, A. Peyton Smith, Colin Averill, Courtney Creamer, Daniela F. Cusack, Steven J. Hall, Julie Jastrow, Kenneth M. Kemner, Markus Kleber, Xiao-Jun Allen Liu, Jennifer Pett-Ridge, Marjorie S. Schulz

Getting to the root of plant‐mediated methane emissions and oxidation in a thermokarst bog

Vascular plants are important in the wetland methane cycle, but their effect on production, oxidation, and transport has high uncertainty, limiting our ability to predict emissions. In a permafrost‐thaw bog in Interior Alaska, we used plant manipulation treatments, field‐deployed planar optical oxygen sensors, direct measurements of methane oxidation, and microbial DNA analyses to disentangle mech
Authors
Jesse C Turner, Colby J Moorberg, Andrea Wong, Kathleen Shea, Mark Waldrop, Merritt R. Turetsky, Rebecca B. Neumann

Climate- versus geographic-dependent patterns in the spatial distribution ofmacroinvertebrate assemblages in New World depressional wetlands

Analyses of biota at lower latitudes may presage impacts of climate change on biota at higher latitudes. Macroinvertebrate assemblages in depressional wetlands may be especially sensitive to climate change because weather‐related precipitation and evapotranspiration are dominant ecological controls on habitats, and organisms of depressional wetlands are temperature‐sensitive ectotherms. We aimed t
Authors
C. Stenert, M.M. Pires, L.B. Epele, M.G. Grech, L. Maltchik, Kyle McLean, David M. Mushet, D.P. Batzer

Ultra‐high‐resolution mapping of biocrusts with Unmanned Aerial Systems

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) occur in drylands globally where they support ecosystem functioning by increasing soil stability, reducing dust emissions and modifying soil resource availability (e.g. water, nutrients). Determining biocrust condition and extent across landscapes continues to present considerable challenges to scientists and land managers. Biocrusts grow in patches, cover vast e
Authors
Caroline Havrilla, Miguel L. Villarreal, Jacob DiBiase, Michael C. Duniway, Nichole Barger

How plants influence resilience of salt marsh and mangrove wetlands to sea-level rise

This review evaluates the importance of plants and associated biological processes in determining the vulnerability of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise. Coastal wetlands occur across a broad sedimentary continuum from minerogenic to biogenic, providing an opportunity to examine the relative importance of biological processes in wetland resilience to sea-level rise. We explore how plants influenc
Authors
Donald R. Cahoon, Karen L. McKee, James Morris

Solar and sensor geometry, not vegetation response, drive satellite NDVI phenology in widespread ecosystems of the western United States

Satellite-derived phenology metrics are valuable tools for understanding broad-scale patterns and changes in vegetated landscapes over time. However, the extraction and interpretation of phenology in ecosystems with subtle growth dynamics can be challenging. US National Park Service monitoring of evergreen pinyon-juniper ecosystems in the western US revealed an unexpected winter-peaking phenologic
Authors
Jodi R. Norris, Jessica J. Walker

Processes influencing marsh elevation change in low- and high-elevation zones of a temperate salt marsh

The movement of salt marshes into uplands and marsh submergence as sea level rises is well documented; however, predicting how coastal marshes will respond to rising sea levels is constrained by a lack of process-based understanding of how various marsh zones adjust to changes in sea level. To assess the way in which salt marsh zones differ in their elevation response to sea-level change, and to e
Authors
Linda K. Blum, Robert R. Christian, Donald Cahoon, Patricia L. Wiberg

Boreal blazes: Biomass burning and vegetation types archived in the Juneau Icefield

The past decade includes some of the most extensive boreal forest fires in the historical record. Warming temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, the desiccation of thick organic soil layers, and increased ignition from lightning all contribute to a combustive combination. Smoke aerosols travel thousands of kilometers, before blanketing the surfaces on which they fall, such as the Juneau Ic
Authors
Natalie Kehrwald, Jeramy Roland Jasmann, Melissa E. Dunham, David G. Ferris, Erich C. Osterburg, Joshua Kennedy, Jeremy C. Havens, Larry Barber, Sarah K. Fortner

Modelling marsh-forest boundary transgression in response to storms and sea-level rise

The lateral extent and vertical stability of salt marshes experiencing rising sea levels depend on interacting drivers and feedbacks with potential for non‐linear behaviors. A two‐dimensional transect model was developed to examine changes in marsh and upland forest lateral extent and to explore controls on marsh inland transgression. Model behavior demonstrates limited and abrupt forest retreat w
Authors
Joel A. Carr, Glenn R. Guntenspergen, Matthew Kirwan

Mortality predispositions of conifers across western USA

Conifer mortality rates are increasing in western North America, but the physiological mechanisms underlying this trend are not well understood.We examined tree‐ring‐based radial growth along with stable carbon (C) and oxygen (O) isotope composition (δ13C and δ18O, respectively) of dying and surviving conifers at eight old‐growth forest sites across a strong moisture gradient in the western USA to
Authors
Wenzhi Wang, Nathan B. English, Charlotte Grossiord, Arthur Gessler, Adrian Das, Nathan L. Stephenson, Christopher H. Baisan, Craig D. Allen, Nate G. McDowell

Generalized models to estimate carbon and nitrogen stocks of organic soil horizons in Interior Alaska

Boreal ecosystems comprise one tenth of the world’s land surface and contain over 20 % of the global soil carbon (C) stocks. Boreal soils are unique in that its mineral soil is covered by what can be quite thick layers of organic soil. These organic soil layers, or horizons, can differ in their state of decomposition, source vegetation, and disturbance history. These differences result in varying
Authors
Kristen L. Manies, Mark Waldrop, Jennifer W. Harden

Application of empirical land-cover changes to construct climate change scenarios in federally managed lands

Sagebrush-dominant ecosystems in the western United States are highly vulnerable to climatic variability. To understand how these ecosystems will respond under potential future conditions, we correlated changes in National Land Cover Dataset “Back-in-Time” fractional cover maps from 1985-2018 with Daymet climate data in three federally managed preserves in the sagebrush steppe ecosystem: Beaty But
Authors
Christopher E. Soulard, Matthew B. Rigge