Will global warming produce more frequent and more intense wildfires?
There isn’t a direct relationship between climate change and fire, but researchers have found strong correlations between warm summer temperatures and large fire years, so there is general consensus that fire occurrence will increase with climate change.
Hot, dry conditions, however, do not automatically mean fire—something needs to create the spark and actually start the fire. In some parts of the country (like Alaska), most fires are ignited by lightning. In other regions (like California), most fires are ignited by humans.
Climate models tell us that average summer temperatures will continue to increase through this century, but ignition is the wild card. What will happen in the future is a more complicated story because we don’t understand what will happen with convective storms and the lightning.
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A strategy for assessing potential future changes in climate, hydrology, and vegetation in the Western United States
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A strategy for assessing potential future changes in climate, hydrology, and vegetation in the Western United States
Historical and geological data indicate that significant changes can occur in the Earth's climate on time scales ranging from years to millennia. In addition to natural climatic change, climatic changes may occur in the near future due to increased concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace gases in the atmosphere that are the result of human activities. International research efforts usingAuthorsRobert Stephen Thompson, Steven W. Hostetler, Patrick J. Bartlein, Katherine H. Anderson - News