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Maps of multiple future threats and stable areas for Gunnison sage-grouse habitats across three scenarios (2016-2070)

February 21, 2024

This dataset contains a series of maps of projected threats and current state of habitats for the threatened Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus). The maps are 30-m spatially explicit projections of current habitats (2016) and future landscape change (by 2070) for the full range of the species’ seven extant populations, which cover diverse ecoregions of the imperiled sagebrush biome of the western United States. Risk maps assessed projected changes caused by climate change-driven shifts in sagebrush habitats, mesic habitats, pinyon-juniper encroachment, and invasive annual grasses, as well as potentially synergistic risk of development and wildfire. We used a scenario-based risk assessment framework based on the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service’s Species Status Assessment for Gunnison Sage-grouse. This aligned individual projections for each threat into three combinatory scenarios of change: Pessimistic (P; hot and dry future climate, high development), Continuation (C; moderately hot, moderate development), and Optimistic (O; warm and wet, low development). An additional set of habitat Vulnerability (V) maps integrates current and future datasets across scenarios to map areas that are currently partially degraded, fully degraded, sometimes at-risk across future scenarios, always at-risk, or stable both currently and in the future. Lastly, Overall species vulnerability maps describe cumulative vulnerability to all six threats as a mean weighted by relevance to Gunnison sage-grouse habitat selection and the sum number of threats that were at-risk in future projections.

Publication Year 2024
Title Maps of multiple future threats and stable areas for Gunnison sage-grouse habitats across three scenarios (2016-2070)
DOI 10.5066/P91P2SOG
Authors Nathan D Van Schmidt, Jessica E Shyvers, Julie A Heinrichs, Dorothy (Joanne) Saher, Cameron Aldridge
Product Type Data Release
Record Source USGS Digital Object Identifier Catalog
USGS Organization Fort Collins Science Center