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Midwest CASC-supported research includes the physiological preferences of coldwater fish to improve estimates of how climate change may affect cold-adapted species in the Midwest.

Coldwater fish like cisco are culturally, ecologically, and economically important in the Midwest. However, resource managers are unsure how coldwater fish will respond to warming waters. To better understand how coldwater fish will respond to changing conditions in Minnesota lakes, Midwest CASC-supported researchers created the “Physiologically Guided Abundance Model,” or PGA Model, that improves estimates of habitat suitability and extinction probability for fish with climate change by better including the physiological response of cold-blooded animals to temperature. The inclusion of physiological preferences appears to improve estimates of how climate change may affect cold-adapted species that managers may use to inform habitat protection, restoration, and other adaptation planning in the region. They write about these findings in the PNAS article "Predicting climate change impacts on poikilotherms using physiologically guided species abundance models".

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