Approaches for using CMIP projections in climate model ensembles to address the ‘hot model’ problem
February 7, 2024
Several recent generation global-climate models were found to have anomalously high climate sensitivities and may not be useful for certain applications. Four approaches for developing ensembles of climate projections for applications that address this issue are:
- Using an “all models” approach;
- Screening using equilibrium climate sensitivity and (or) transient climate response;
- Bayesian model averaging; and
- Using global warming levels.
Advantages and disadvantages of each approach are described by using example applications to study the effects of climate change on an imaginary at-risk species. Choosing the right approach is dependent on the location, goals, and system focus of each application and the risk-tolerance and resource-management context.
Citation Information
Publication Year | 2024 |
---|---|
Title | Approaches for using CMIP projections in climate model ensembles to address the ‘hot model’ problem |
DOI | 10.3133/ofr20241008 |
Authors | Ryan Boyles, Catherine A. Nikiel, Brian W. Miller, Jeremy Littell, Adam J. Terando, Imtiaz Rangwala, Jay R. Alder, Derek H. Rosendahl, Adrienne M. Wootten |
Publication Type | Report |
Publication Subtype | USGS Numbered Series |
Series Title | Open-File Report |
Series Number | 2024-1008 |
Index ID | ofr20241008 |
Record Source | USGS Publications Warehouse |
USGS Organization | Alaska Science Center; Southeast Climate Science Center; National Climate Adaptation Science Center; South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center |
Related
Ryan Boyles, Ph.D.
Senior Scientist, CASC Climate Adaptation Technical Support
Senior Scientist, CASC Climate Adaptation Technical Support
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Phone
Catherine (Kasia) A. Nikiel, Ph.D. (Former Employee)
Physical Scientist, National CASC
Physical Scientist, National CASC
Brian W Miller, Ph.D.
Research Ecologist, North Central CASC
Research Ecologist, North Central CASC
Email
Phone
Jeremy Littell, Ph.D.
Research Ecologist, Alaska CASC
Research Ecologist, Alaska CASC
Email
Phone
Adam Terando, Ph.D.
Research Ecologist, Southeast CASC
Research Ecologist, Southeast CASC
Email
Phone
Jay Alder
Research Physical Scientist
Research Physical Scientist
Email
Phone
Related
Ryan Boyles, Ph.D.
Senior Scientist, CASC Climate Adaptation Technical Support
Senior Scientist, CASC Climate Adaptation Technical Support
Email
Phone
Catherine (Kasia) A. Nikiel, Ph.D. (Former Employee)
Physical Scientist, National CASC
Physical Scientist, National CASC
Brian W Miller, Ph.D.
Research Ecologist, North Central CASC
Research Ecologist, North Central CASC
Email
Phone
Jeremy Littell, Ph.D.
Research Ecologist, Alaska CASC
Research Ecologist, Alaska CASC
Email
Phone
Adam Terando, Ph.D.
Research Ecologist, Southeast CASC
Research Ecologist, Southeast CASC
Email
Phone
Jay Alder
Research Physical Scientist
Research Physical Scientist
Email
Phone