Chapter 2: Climate, disturbance, and vulnerability to vegetation change in the Northwest Forest Plan Area
Climate change is expected to alter the composition, structure, and function of forested ecosystems in the United States (Vose et al. 2012). Increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (e.g., carbon dioxide [CO2]) and temperature, as well as altered precipitation and disturbance regimes (e.g., fire, insects, pathogens, and...Reilly, Matthew J.; Spies, Thomas A.; Littell, Jeremy S.; Butz, Ramona J.; Kim, John B.
Climate Change in Port Heiden, Alaska - Strategies for Community Health
There are two components to this document. The first component is the scope of described environmental change and its impacts in Port Heiden Alaska. The second component is a list of priorities to be addressed that will help Port Heiden achieve its vision for the future. Each priority area incorporates local knowledge with available climate...Lujan, Erica; Brubaker, Mike; Warren, John; Christensen, Jaclyn; Anderson, Scott; O'Domin, Melissa; Littell, Jeremy S.; Buzard, Richard M.; Overbeck, Jacquelyn R.; Holen, Davin; Flensburg, Sue; Powers, Elizabeth
Drought and fire in the western USA: Is climate attribution enough?
Purpose of ReviewI sought to review the contributions of recent literature and prior foundational papers to our understanding of drought and fire. In this review, I summarize recent literature on drought and fire in the western USA and discuss research directions that may increase the utility of that body of work for twenty-first century...Littell, Jeremy S.
Downscaling of climate model output for Alaskan stakeholders
The paper summarizes an end-to-end activity connecting the global climate modeling enterprise with users of climate information in Alaska. The effort included retrieval of the requisite observational datasets and model output, a model evaluation and selection procedure, the actual downscaling by the delta method with its...Walsh, John E.; Bhatt, Uma S.; Littell, Jeremy S.; Leonawicz, Matthew; Lindgren, Michael; Kurkowski, Thomas A.; Bieniek, Peter A.; Thoman, Richard; Gray, Stephen; Rupp, T. Scott
Cracking the code of biodiversity responses to past climate change
How individual species and entire ecosystems will respond to future climate change are among the most pressing questions facing ecologists. Past biodiversity dynamics recorded in the paleoecological archives show a broad array of responses, yet significant knowledge gaps remain. In particular, the relative roles of evolutionary adaptation,...Nogués-Bravo, David; Rodríguez-Sánchez, Francisco; Orsini, Luisa; de Boer, Erik; Jansson, Roland; Morlon, Helene; Fordham, Damien A.; Jackson, Stephen T.
Mid-Atlantic forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Mid-Atlantic Climate Change Response Framework project
Forest ecosystems will be affected directly and indirectly by a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of 11 forest ecosystems in the Mid-Atlantic region (Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, eastern Maryland, and southern New York) under a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized...Butler-Leopold, Patricia R.; Iverson, Louis R.; Thompson, Frank R.; Brandt, Leslie A.; Handler, Stephen D.; Janowiak, Maria K.; Shannon, P. Danielle; Swanston, Christopher W.; Bearer, Scott; Bryan, Alexander; Clark, Kenneth L.; Czarnecki, Greg; DeSenze, Philip; Dijak, William D.; Fraser, Jacob S.; Gugger, Paul F.; Hille, Andrea; Hynicka, Justin; Jantz, Claire A.; Kelly, Matthew C.; Krause, Katrina M.; La Puma, Inga Parker; Landau, Deborah; Lathrop, Richard G.; Leites, Laura P.; Madlinger, Evan; Matthews, Stephen N.; Ozbay, Gulnihal; Peters, Matthew P.; Prasad, Anantha; Schmit, David A.; Shephard, Collin; Shirer, Rebecca; Skowronski, Nicholas S.; Steele, Al; Stout, Susan; Thomas-Van Gundy, Melissa; Thompson, John; Turcotte, Richard M.; Weinstein, David A.; Yáñez, Alfonso
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands
Average annual temperature for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands has increased by more than 1.5°F since 1950. Under a higher emissions pathway, historically unprecedented warming is projected by the end of the 21st century, including increases in extreme heat events. Future changes in total precipitation are uncertain, but extreme...Champion, Sarah; Easterling, David; Terando, Adam J.; Sun, Liqiang; Stewart, Brooke C.; Landers, Glenn; Runkle, Jennifer; Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Stevens, Laura E.; Champion, Sarah; Easterling, David; Terando, Adam; Sun, Liqiang; Stewart, Brooke C.; Landers, Glenn
A snapshot of women of the U.S. Geological Survey in STEM and related careers
IntroductionThe term “STEM” has been used to group together the fields of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics and to describe education and professions related to these fields. The professional fields connected to STEM education are thought of as engineering, medicine, and computer technology. Yet these professional fields are merely...Aragon-Long, Susan C.; Burkett, Virginia R.; Weyers, Holly S.; Haig, Susan M.; Davenport, Marjorie S.; Warner, Kelly L.
A review of coastal management approaches to support the integration of ecological and human community planning for climate change
The resilience of socio-ecological systems to sea level rise, storms and flooding can be enhanced when coastal habitats are used as natural infrastructure. Grey infrastructure has long been used for coastal flood protection but can lead to unintended negative impacts. Natural infrastructure often provides similar services as well as added benefits...Powell, Emily J.; Tyrrell, Megan C.; Milliken, Andrew; Tirpak, John M.; Staudinger, Michelle D.
Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change
Impacts of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems are imperfectly constrained by ecosystem models and direct observations. Pervasive ecosystem transformations occurred in response to warming and associated climatic changes during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition, which was comparable in magnitude to warming projected for the...Nolan, Connor; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Allen, Judy R. M.; Anderson, Patricia M.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Binney, Heather A.; Brewer, Simon; Bush, Mark B.; Chase, Brian M.; Cheddadi, Rachid; Djamali, Morteza; Dodson, John; Edwards, Mary E.; Gosling, William D.; Haberle, Simon; Hotchkiss, Sara C.; Huntley, Brian; Ivory, Sarah J.; Kershaw, A. Peter; Kim, Soo-Hyun; Latorre, Claudio; Leydet, Michelle; Lézine, Anne-Marie; Liu, Kam-Biu; Liu, Yao; Lozhkin, A. V.; McGlone, Matt S.; Marchant, Robert A.; Momohara, Arata; Moreno, Patricio I.; Müller, Stefanie; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Shen, Caiming; Stevenson, Janelle; Takahara, Hikaru; Tarasov, Pavel E.; Tipton, John; Vincens, Annie; Weng, Chengyu; Xu, Qinghai; Zheng, Zhuo; Jackson, Stephen T.
Climate change and future wildfire in the western USA: An ecological approach to nonstationarity
We developed ecologically based climate‐fire projections for the western United States. Using a finer ecological classification and fire‐relevant climate predictors, we created statistical models linking climate and wildfire area burned for ecosections, which are geographic delineations based on biophysical variables. The results indicate a...Littell, Jeremy; McKenzie, Donald; Wan, Ho Yi; Cushman, Samuel A.
Spatial patterns of development drive water use
Water availability is becoming more uncertain as human populations grow, cities expand into rural regions and the climate changes. In this study, we examine the functional relationship between water use and the spatial patterns of developed land across the rapidly growing region of the southeastern United States. We quantified the spatial pattern...Sanchez, G.M.; Smith, J.W.; Terando, Adam J.; Sun, G.; Meentemeyer, R.K.