LandCarbon Active
Great Plains region of the United States
Baseline and projected future carbon storage and greenhouse-gas fluxes
Ecosystems of the Western United States
Baseline and projected future carbon storage and greenhouse-gas fluxes
Ecosystems of the eastern United States
Baseline and projected future carbon storage and greenhouse-gas fluxes
Ecosystems of Alaska
Baseline and projected future carbon storage and greenhouse-gas fluxes
The biologic carbon sequestration assessment program (LandCarbon) investigates ecosystem carbon cycle problems and develops carbon management science and monitoring methods.
Specifically, LandCarbon is focused on the following research areas:
- Synthesize and assess current and potential carbon balance (stocks and fluxes) in major terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems
- Evaluate the effects of both natural and anthropogenic driving forces on ecosystem carbon balance and greenhouse gas fluxes
- Develop carbon monitoring methods and capabilities
- Conduct research and provide science support for increasing carbon sequestration in land management policies and practices
Since 2010, the USGS has:
- Released a methodology for the national assessment of biologic carbon sequestration (USGS Scientific Investigations Report 5233)
- Completed the assessment for the conterminous United States divided into three regional reports (USGS Professional Papers 1787- Great Plains, 1797- Western US, and 1804- Eastern US), and Alaska and Hawaii separately
- Developed and released a LandCarbon website for data distribution and visualization.
Additionally, a number of research papers have been published in leading journals by USGS and academic scientists supported by the program.
Going forward, the new focus of the program is in two priority areas:
- Synthesis and assessment linking ecosystem carbon balance with natural and anthropogenic processes as well as carbon management
- Carbon sequestration application studies in support of Department of the Interior land management decision making
Activities:
Aquatic Systems
The USGS investigates the amount of carbon burial, emissions, and export taking place in the aquatic ecosystems of the United States. Data analysis and modeling are used to identify the controls on greenhouse gas emissions from lakes and rivers, as well as the magnitude of carbon burial in sediments. Linkages between land use and carbon cycling in nearby aquatic habitats are being characterized in order to understand the effects of human activity such as agriculture and development on aquatic carbon cycling. Carbon export to the coastal ocean is also being quantified, and ecosystem models will describe the movement of continental carbon exports through the coastal food web.
Inland aquatic ecosystems (rivers, lakes, ponds, and reservoirs) play several important roles in the carbon cycle. Carbon that has been fixed via terrestrial primary production and processed in the soil is exported to surface water as both organic and mineral carbon compounds. In the aquatic environment, organic carbon compounds are respired (converted to CO2) by bacteria. This process can lead to a greater concentration of CO2 in the water than in the air (supersaturation), which results in "degassing", or emission of CO2 to the atmosphere. At the same time, plants and algae in aquatic ecosystems take up CO2 for photosynthesis. As it moves through the food web, most of this carbon is ultimately converted back to CO2 by respiration, but some of it can be buried in sediments. Anaerobic decomposition of carbon buried in sediments can create CH4, another greenhouse gas, which can also escape to the atmosphere. River systems transport carbon, originating from both terrestrial and aquatic systems, to the coastal ocean, where it is then further processed (emitted as greenhouse gases, buried in sediments, or transported offshore).
Carbon Sequestration Assessment
According to the newly completed the 2nd State of Carbon Cycle Report (), Terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the United States are a significant carbon sinks, taking up approximately a quarter of the nation’s CO2 emissions. The ecosystem carbon sink can be highly variable over space and time due to natural disturbances and land use decisions (Goodale and others, 2002)). Fire, for example, is a disturbance that affects a forest's carbon storage and has effects of both releasing CO2 and CH4 back into the atmosphere and strengthening a forest ecosystem's ability to increase sequestration over the long-term. USGS conducts synthesis and assessment of carbon sequestration processes and long-term balances of major ecosystems including forests, croplands, grasslands, and wetlands in relation to both natural and anthropogenic driving forces.
Ecosystem Disturbances – Wildland Fire
Ecosystem disturbance modeling and emission estimation produces spatially-explicit forecasts of fire patterns, and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions for U.S biomes. At the heart of the approach is a series of statistical and process-based models, coded in C++, that simulate processes of fire ignition, spread, and emissions. Patterns of historic ignitions are characterized using logistic regressions that relate ignition location to daily fuel moisture conditions, as well as, vegetation type and urban extent. These ignition models are used to determine when and where ignitions are located under stable or changing climate scenarios. Once ignitions are located, the area burned is determined by allowing each ignition to spread using the minimum travel time algorithm. After fire spread is complete, emissions are calculated using the FOFEM and CONSUME models.
Vegetation, fuels, daily weather, and fuel moisture data are critical to disturbance simulations. Vegetation and fuels data are provided by the LANDFIRE project. The daily weather data we use have 12 km spatial resolution and span from 1950 to 2010. For future climate-change scenarios, we randomly resample annual sequences of historic daily weather and rescale them to match the monthly means provided by downscaled climate-change forecasts. Fuel moistures and fire behavior indices are calculated for both historic and forecast daily weather using the National Fire Danger Rating System and then used as predictor variables for ignition locations, fire spread, and fire emissions.
Future Scenarios and land use modeling
To study potential changes in land use, land cover and land management in the future United States, USGS has incorporated probable scenarios as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its fourth and fifth assessment reports (AR4 and AR5), which lists major driving forces of future emissions, including changes in demographic, technological and economic developments. To be able to incorporate these scenario assumptions into ongoing research and to produce nationally and regionally unique future potential land use and land cover scenarios, data on historical land-cover change from USGS and information derived from a global integrated assessment model are used in conjunction with expert analysis to 1) downscale scenario narrative storylines to national and sub-national scales, and 2) develop quantitative regional projections of LULC change for major land-use sectors of the conterminous United States. Results of this process are a set of quantitative future scenarios for specific land use and land cover classes, unique at both national and regional scales.
There are large uncertainties in how land and climate systems will evolve and interact to shape future ecosystem carbon dynamics. To address this uncertainty, we developed the Land-Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impact on ecosystem carbon storage and flux. The LUCAS model combines a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) for modeling land-change with a stock and flow model for modeling carbon dynamics, within a scenario-based framework. These two models were developed in conjunction within the ST-SIM modeling environment to provide a complete package for testing a range of future scenarios of land-use change and their impacts on carbon dynamics. Land-use change scenarios developed from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), as well as scenarios developed from historical land-use change datasets that include a range of mitigation and adaptation policies can be applied in the model.
Below are data releases associated with this project.
Below are publications associated with this project.
Dissolved organic carbon and nitrogen release from boreal Holocene permafrost and seasonally frozen soils of Alaska
The role of environmental driving factors in historical and projected carbon dynamics of wetland ecosystems in Alaska
Integrating forest inventory data and MODIS data to map species-level biomass in Chinese boreal forests
A remote sensing-based model of tidal marsh aboveground carbon stocks for the conterminous United States
Effects of contemporary land-use and land-cover change on the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in the United States
Carbon budget of tidal wetlands, estuaries, and shelf waters of eastern North America
Modeling wildfire-induced permafrost deformation in an Alaskan boreal forest using InSAR observations
Gauging resource exploitation by juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in restoring estuarine habitat
Enhanced invertebrate prey production following estuarine restoration supports foraging for multiple species of juvenile salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.)
Direct and indirect controls on organic matter decomposition in four coastal wetland communities along a landscape salinity gradient
The role of driving factors in historical and projected carbon dynamics of upland ecosystems in Alaska
Potential for negative emissions of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4 and N2O) through coastal peatland re-establishment: Novel insights from high frequency flux data at meter and kilometer scales
- Overview
The biologic carbon sequestration assessment program (LandCarbon) investigates ecosystem carbon cycle problems and develops carbon management science and monitoring methods.
Specifically, LandCarbon is focused on the following research areas:
- Synthesize and assess current and potential carbon balance (stocks and fluxes) in major terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems
- Evaluate the effects of both natural and anthropogenic driving forces on ecosystem carbon balance and greenhouse gas fluxes
- Develop carbon monitoring methods and capabilities
- Conduct research and provide science support for increasing carbon sequestration in land management policies and practices
Since 2010, the USGS has:
- Released a methodology for the national assessment of biologic carbon sequestration (USGS Scientific Investigations Report 5233)
- Completed the assessment for the conterminous United States divided into three regional reports (USGS Professional Papers 1787- Great Plains, 1797- Western US, and 1804- Eastern US), and Alaska and Hawaii separately
- Developed and released a LandCarbon website for data distribution and visualization.
Additionally, a number of research papers have been published in leading journals by USGS and academic scientists supported by the program.
Going forward, the new focus of the program is in two priority areas:
- Synthesis and assessment linking ecosystem carbon balance with natural and anthropogenic processes as well as carbon management
- Carbon sequestration application studies in support of Department of the Interior land management decision making
Activities:
Aquatic Systems
The USGS investigates the amount of carbon burial, emissions, and export taking place in the aquatic ecosystems of the United States. Data analysis and modeling are used to identify the controls on greenhouse gas emissions from lakes and rivers, as well as the magnitude of carbon burial in sediments. Linkages between land use and carbon cycling in nearby aquatic habitats are being characterized in order to understand the effects of human activity such as agriculture and development on aquatic carbon cycling. Carbon export to the coastal ocean is also being quantified, and ecosystem models will describe the movement of continental carbon exports through the coastal food web.
Inland aquatic ecosystems (rivers, lakes, ponds, and reservoirs) play several important roles in the carbon cycle. Carbon that has been fixed via terrestrial primary production and processed in the soil is exported to surface water as both organic and mineral carbon compounds. In the aquatic environment, organic carbon compounds are respired (converted to CO2) by bacteria. This process can lead to a greater concentration of CO2 in the water than in the air (supersaturation), which results in "degassing", or emission of CO2 to the atmosphere. At the same time, plants and algae in aquatic ecosystems take up CO2 for photosynthesis. As it moves through the food web, most of this carbon is ultimately converted back to CO2 by respiration, but some of it can be buried in sediments. Anaerobic decomposition of carbon buried in sediments can create CH4, another greenhouse gas, which can also escape to the atmosphere. River systems transport carbon, originating from both terrestrial and aquatic systems, to the coastal ocean, where it is then further processed (emitted as greenhouse gases, buried in sediments, or transported offshore).
Carbon Sequestration Assessment
According to the newly completed the 2nd State of Carbon Cycle Report (), Terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the United States are a significant carbon sinks, taking up approximately a quarter of the nation’s CO2 emissions. The ecosystem carbon sink can be highly variable over space and time due to natural disturbances and land use decisions (Goodale and others, 2002)). Fire, for example, is a disturbance that affects a forest's carbon storage and has effects of both releasing CO2 and CH4 back into the atmosphere and strengthening a forest ecosystem's ability to increase sequestration over the long-term. USGS conducts synthesis and assessment of carbon sequestration processes and long-term balances of major ecosystems including forests, croplands, grasslands, and wetlands in relation to both natural and anthropogenic driving forces.
Ecosystem Disturbances – Wildland Fire
Ecosystem disturbance modeling and emission estimation produces spatially-explicit forecasts of fire patterns, and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions for U.S biomes. At the heart of the approach is a series of statistical and process-based models, coded in C++, that simulate processes of fire ignition, spread, and emissions. Patterns of historic ignitions are characterized using logistic regressions that relate ignition location to daily fuel moisture conditions, as well as, vegetation type and urban extent. These ignition models are used to determine when and where ignitions are located under stable or changing climate scenarios. Once ignitions are located, the area burned is determined by allowing each ignition to spread using the minimum travel time algorithm. After fire spread is complete, emissions are calculated using the FOFEM and CONSUME models.Vegetation, fuels, daily weather, and fuel moisture data are critical to disturbance simulations. Vegetation and fuels data are provided by the LANDFIRE project. The daily weather data we use have 12 km spatial resolution and span from 1950 to 2010. For future climate-change scenarios, we randomly resample annual sequences of historic daily weather and rescale them to match the monthly means provided by downscaled climate-change forecasts. Fuel moistures and fire behavior indices are calculated for both historic and forecast daily weather using the National Fire Danger Rating System and then used as predictor variables for ignition locations, fire spread, and fire emissions.
Future Scenarios and land use modeling
To study potential changes in land use, land cover and land management in the future United States, USGS has incorporated probable scenarios as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its fourth and fifth assessment reports (AR4 and AR5), which lists major driving forces of future emissions, including changes in demographic, technological and economic developments. To be able to incorporate these scenario assumptions into ongoing research and to produce nationally and regionally unique future potential land use and land cover scenarios, data on historical land-cover change from USGS and information derived from a global integrated assessment model are used in conjunction with expert analysis to 1) downscale scenario narrative storylines to national and sub-national scales, and 2) develop quantitative regional projections of LULC change for major land-use sectors of the conterminous United States. Results of this process are a set of quantitative future scenarios for specific land use and land cover classes, unique at both national and regional scales.There are large uncertainties in how land and climate systems will evolve and interact to shape future ecosystem carbon dynamics. To address this uncertainty, we developed the Land-Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impact on ecosystem carbon storage and flux. The LUCAS model combines a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) for modeling land-change with a stock and flow model for modeling carbon dynamics, within a scenario-based framework. These two models were developed in conjunction within the ST-SIM modeling environment to provide a complete package for testing a range of future scenarios of land-use change and their impacts on carbon dynamics. Land-use change scenarios developed from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), as well as scenarios developed from historical land-use change datasets that include a range of mitigation and adaptation policies can be applied in the model.
- Data
Below are data releases associated with this project.
- Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Filter Total Items: 145Dissolved organic carbon and nitrogen release from boreal Holocene permafrost and seasonally frozen soils of Alaska
Permafrost (perennially frozen) soils store vast amounts of organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) that are vulnerable to mobilization as dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and dissolved organic and inorganic nitrogen (DON, DIN) upon thaw. Such releases will affect the biogeochemistry of permafrost regions, yet little is known about the chemical composition and source variability of active-layer (seasonaAuthorsKimberly P. Wickland, Mark P. Waldrop, George R. Aiken, Joshua C. Koch, M. Torre Jorgenson, Robert G. StrieglThe role of environmental driving factors in historical and projected carbon dynamics of wetland ecosystems in Alaska
Wetlands are critical terrestrial ecosystems in Alaska, covering ~177,000 km2, an area greater than all the wetlands in the remainder of the United States. To assess the relative influence of changing climate, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, and fire regime on carbon balance in wetland ecosystems of Alaska, a modeling framework that incorporates a fire disturbance model and two bioAuthorsZhou Lyu, Helene Genet, Yujie He, Qianlai Zhuang, A. David McGuire, Alec Bennett, Amy Breen, Joy Clein, Eugenie S. Euskirchen, Kristofer Johnson, Tom Kurkowski, Neal J. Pastick, T. Scott Rupp, Bruce K. Wylie, Zhiliang ZhuIntegrating forest inventory data and MODIS data to map species-level biomass in Chinese boreal forests
Timely and accurate knowledge of species-level biomass is essential for forest managers to sustain forest resources and respond to various forest disturbance regimes. In this study, maps of species-level biomass in Chinese boreal forests were generated by integrating Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images with forest inventory data using k nearest neighbor (kNN) methods and eAuthorsQinglong Zhang, Hong S. He, Yu Liang, Todd Hawbaker, Paul D. Henne, Jinxun Liu, Shengli Huang, Zhiwei Wu, Chao HuangA remote sensing-based model of tidal marsh aboveground carbon stocks for the conterminous United States
Remote sensing based maps of tidal marshes, both of their extents and carbon stocks, have the potential to play a key role in conducting greenhouse gas inventories and implementing climate mitigation policies. Our objective was to generate a single remote sensing model of tidal marsh aboveground biomass and carbon that represents nationally diverse tidal marshes within the conterminous United StatAuthorsKristin B. Byrd, Laurel Ballanti, Nathan Thomas, Dung Nguyen, James R. Holmquist, Marc Simard, Lisamarie Windham-MyersEffects of contemporary land-use and land-cover change on the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in the United States
Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) can have profound effects on terrestrial carbon dynamics, yet their effects on the global carbon budget remain uncertain. While land change impacts on ecosystem carbon dynamics have been the focus of numerous studies, few efforts have been based on observational data incorporating multiple ecosystem types spanning large geographic areas over long time horiAuthorsBenjamin M. Sleeter, Jinxun Liu, Colin Daniel, Bronwyn Rayfield, Jason T. Sherba, Todd Hawbaker, Zhiliang Zhu, Paul Selmants, Thomas R. LovelandCarbon budget of tidal wetlands, estuaries, and shelf waters of eastern North America
Carbon cycling in the coastal zone affects global carbon budgets and is critical for understanding the urgent issues of hypoxia, acidification, and tidal wetland loss. However, there are no regional carbon budgets spanning the three main ecosystems in coastal waters: tidal wetlands, estuaries, and shelf waters. Here we construct such a budget for eastern North America using historical data, empiriAuthorsR.G. Najjar, M. Herrmann, Richard B. Alexander, E. W. Boyer, D. J. Burdige, D. Butman, W.-J. Cai, E.A. Canuel, R.F. Chen, M. A. M. Friedrichs, R.A. Feagin, P. C. Griffith, A.L. Hinson, J.R. Holmquist, X. Hu, W.M. Kemp, Kevin D. Kroeger, A. Mannino, S.L. McCallister, W.R. McGillis, M.R. Mulholland, C. H. Pilskaln, J. Salisbury, S. R. Signorini, P. St. Laurent, H. Tian, M Tzortziou, P. Vlahos, Z. A. Wang, R. C. ZimmermanModeling wildfire-induced permafrost deformation in an Alaskan boreal forest using InSAR observations
The discontinuous permafrost zone is one of the world’s most sensitive areas to climate change. Alaskan boreal forest is underlain by discontinuous permafrost, and wildfires are one of the most influential agents negatively impacting the condition of permafrost in the arctic region. Using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) of Advanced Land Observation Satellite (ALOS) Phased Array tyAuthorsYusef Eshqi Molan, Jin-Woo Kim, Zhong Lu, Bruce K. Wylie, Zhiliang ZhuGauging resource exploitation by juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in restoring estuarine habitat
In the context of delta restoration and its impact on salmonid rearing, success is best evaluated based on whether out-migrating juvenile salmon can access and benefit from suitable estuarine habitat. Here, we integrated 3 years of post-restoration monitoring data including habitat availability, invertebrate prey biomass, and juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) physiological conditiAuthorsMelanie J. Davis, Christopher S. Ellings, Isa Woo, Sayre Hodgson, Kimberly A. Larsen, Glynnis NakaiEnhanced invertebrate prey production following estuarine restoration supports foraging for multiple species of juvenile salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.)
Estuaries provide crucial foraging resources and nursery habitat for threatened populations of anadromous salmon. As such, there has been a global undertaking to restore habitat and tidal processes in modified estuaries. The foraging capacity of these ecosystems to support various species of out-migrating juvenile salmon can be quantified by monitoring benthic, terrestrial, and pelagic invertebratAuthorsIsa Woo, Melanie J. Davis, Christopher S. Ellings, Glynnis Nakai, John Y. Takekawa, Susan E. W. De La CruzDirect and indirect controls on organic matter decomposition in four coastal wetland communities along a landscape salinity gradient
Coastal wetlands store more carbon than most ecosystems globally. As sea level rises, changes in flooding and salinity will potentially impact ecological functions, such as organic matter decomposition, that influence carbon storage. However, little is known about the mechanisms that control organic matter loss in coastal wetlands at the landscape scale. As sea level rises, how will the shift fromAuthorsCamille L. Stagg, Melissa M. Baustian, Carey L. Perry, Tim J. B. Carruthers, Courtney T. HallThe role of driving factors in historical and projected carbon dynamics of upland ecosystems in Alaska
It is important to understand how upland ecosystems of Alaska, which are estimated to occupy 84% of the state (i.e., 1,237,774 km2), are influencing and will influence state‐wide carbon (C) dynamics in the face of ongoing climate change. We coupled fire disturbance and biogeochemical models to assess the relative effects of changing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), climate, logging and fire regimAuthorsHélène Genet, Yujie He, Zhou Lyu, A. David McGuire, Qianlai Zhuang, Joy S. Clein, David D'Amore, Alec Bennett, Amy Breen, Frances Biles, Eugénie S. Euskirchen, Kristofer Johnson, Tom Kurkowski, Svetlana (Kushch) Schroder, Neal J. Pastick, T. Scott Rupp, Bruce K. Wylie, Yujin Zhang, Xiaoping Zhou, Zhiliang ZhuPotential for negative emissions of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4 and N2O) through coastal peatland re-establishment: Novel insights from high frequency flux data at meter and kilometer scales
High productivity temperate wetlands that accrete peat via belowground biomass (peatlands) may be managed for climate mitigation benefits due to their global distribution and notably negative emissions of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) through rapid storage of carbon (C) in anoxic soils. Net emissions of additional greenhouse gases (GHG)—methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O)—are more difficult tAuthorsLisamarie Windham-Myers, Brian A. Bergamaschi, Frank A. Anderson, Sarah Knox, Robin Miller, Roger Fujii