CASCaDE: Computational Assessments of Scenarios of Change for the Delta Ecosystem Active
The Delta of the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers provides drinking water supplies to two-thirds of Californians, and is a fragile ecosystem home to threatened and endangered species. The CASCaDE project builds on several decades of USGS science to address the goals of achieving water supply reliability and restoring the ecosystems in the Bay-Delta system.
The Delta of the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers, at the upstream end of the San Francisco Bay-Delta estuary, is home to vital ecosystems that provide habitat for many endangered species and that serve as an important stop on the Pacific Flyway for migratory birds. The Delta provides drinking water supplies to two-thirds of Californians and is a major source of water for California agriculture.
The health of the estuary’s ecosystem has long been in decline. Continued subsidence of Delta islands, in conjunction with sea-level rise and the likelihood of major earthquakes, threatens hundreds of miles of fragile levees. As a result, the Delta’s ecosystem and the role of its waterways as a central conduit for large-scale infrastructure that transports fresh water from northern California to southern California are vulnerable. Failure of the Delta to sustain its ecological and freshwater supply services would be catastrophic for California, with economic impacts extending to the national level.
In response to these challenges, California passed the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Reform Act in 2009 with the coequal goals of achieving water supply reliability and restoring the Delta’s ecosystem. However, critical gaps in our understanding of how the Delta may respond to major climate and infrastructure changes over the next several decades complicate decisions about how to achieve these goals. Assessing the effects of likely climate and infrastructure changes on this system is essential to making informed and robust planning decisions.
The Computational Assessments of Scenarios of Change for the Delta Ecosystem (CASCaDE) project was conceived to build on several decades of USGS science in this system to address this need. Multiple scientists are using linked models to evaluate the implications of a range of future scenarios on various aspects of the Bay-Delta and its watershed.
Code, Configuration Files, and Additional Data
- The hydrodynamic model can be accessed at www.d3d-baydelta.org.
- San Francisco Bay-Delta bathymetric/topographic digital elevation model (DEM)
- Data and Associated Code for Projections of Unimpaired Flows, Storage, and Managed Flows for Climate Change Scenarios in the San Francisco Bay-Delta Watershed, California
Updates
August 27, 2020: A paper describing the results of CASCaDE 2 modeling of the response of suspended sediment transport in the Sacramento watershed was published in (link).
October 12, 2018: A paper describing the results of CASCaDE 2 watershed hydrology and operations modeling was published in Water Resources Research (link). We also recently published a related report describing our methods and models in detail, and a data-and-code release that includes all of the code we developed for this project and the relevant data produced.
August 27, 2018: A report describing the meteorological and sea-level projections used in CASCaDE2 has been released as part of the Fourth California Climate Change Assessment (link).
July 1, 2018: Configuration files for the 2-D and 3-D versions of the D-Flow FM hydrodynamic model are available at d3d-baydelta.org. Instructions for obtaining the source code are also at that site.
October 1, 2017: A paper describing the application of the CASCaDE2 hydrodynamical model to the simulation of historical water temperatures has been published in Water Resources Research (link).
June 22, 2017: A report describing the seamless bathymetric/topographic DEM developed for the CASCaDE2 hydrodynamical model has been released (link).
June 5, 2017: A paper describing the new CASCaDE2 hydrodynamical model and its application to historical flows and salinity has been published in Estuarine, Coastal, and Shelf Science (link).
April 2017: A publication exploring responses of estuarine suspended sediment dynamics to scenarios of changing climate and alterations to engineered water conveyance structures (link to Achete et al. 2017 Climatic Change; https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-017-1954-8)
February 2017: A publication describing a laboratory analysis method enabling Selenium sample analysis supporting CASCaDE modeling work (link to Kleckner et al. 2017, L&O Methods; https://aslopubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/lom3.10164)
May 14, 2016: A paper describing the watershed sediment model developed for CASCaDE2 has been published in Water (link).
March 2016: A publication describing suspended sediment dynamics in a tidal channel network under peak river flow based on a 2D numerical model (link to Achete et al. 2016 Ocean Dynamics; https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10236-016-0944-0)
Older items
At the conclusion of external funding from the Delta Stewardship Council (DSC), we produced a summary report. Although the project term with DSC funding is over, work continues on CASCaDE2. Additional materials follow:
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
Below are publications associated with this project.
The coming megafloods
Influence of estuarine processes on spatiotemporal variation in bioavailable selenium
A method for physically based model analysis of conjunctive use in response to potential climate changes
Changing restoration rules: exotic bivalves interact with residence time and depth to control phytoplankton productivity
Second California Assessment: Integrated climate change impacts assessment of natural and managed systems. Guest editorial
Potential increase in floods in California's Sierra Nevada under future climate projections
Climate change, atmospheric rivers, and floods in California - a multimodel analysis of storm frequency and magnitude changes
Discontinuous hindcast simulations of estuarine bathymetric change: A case study from Suisun Bay, California
Projected evolution of California's San Francisco bay-delta-river system in a century of climate change
Statistical models of temperature in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta under climate-change scenarios and ecological implications
Process-based, morphodynamic hindcast of decadal deposition patterns in San Pablo Bay, California, 1856-1887
Bed composition generation for morphodynamic modeling: Case study of San Pablo Bay in California, USA
- Overview
The Delta of the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers provides drinking water supplies to two-thirds of Californians, and is a fragile ecosystem home to threatened and endangered species. The CASCaDE project builds on several decades of USGS science to address the goals of achieving water supply reliability and restoring the ecosystems in the Bay-Delta system.
The Delta of the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers, at the upstream end of the San Francisco Bay-Delta estuary, is home to vital ecosystems that provide habitat for many endangered species and that serve as an important stop on the Pacific Flyway for migratory birds. The Delta provides drinking water supplies to two-thirds of Californians and is a major source of water for California agriculture.
The health of the estuary’s ecosystem has long been in decline. Continued subsidence of Delta islands, in conjunction with sea-level rise and the likelihood of major earthquakes, threatens hundreds of miles of fragile levees. As a result, the Delta’s ecosystem and the role of its waterways as a central conduit for large-scale infrastructure that transports fresh water from northern California to southern California are vulnerable. Failure of the Delta to sustain its ecological and freshwater supply services would be catastrophic for California, with economic impacts extending to the national level.
In response to these challenges, California passed the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Reform Act in 2009 with the coequal goals of achieving water supply reliability and restoring the Delta’s ecosystem. However, critical gaps in our understanding of how the Delta may respond to major climate and infrastructure changes over the next several decades complicate decisions about how to achieve these goals. Assessing the effects of likely climate and infrastructure changes on this system is essential to making informed and robust planning decisions.
The Computational Assessments of Scenarios of Change for the Delta Ecosystem (CASCaDE) project was conceived to build on several decades of USGS science in this system to address this need. Multiple scientists are using linked models to evaluate the implications of a range of future scenarios on various aspects of the Bay-Delta and its watershed.
Code, Configuration Files, and Additional Data
- The hydrodynamic model can be accessed at www.d3d-baydelta.org.
- San Francisco Bay-Delta bathymetric/topographic digital elevation model (DEM)
- Data and Associated Code for Projections of Unimpaired Flows, Storage, and Managed Flows for Climate Change Scenarios in the San Francisco Bay-Delta Watershed, California
Updates
August 27, 2020: A paper describing the results of CASCaDE 2 modeling of the response of suspended sediment transport in the Sacramento watershed was published in (link).
October 12, 2018: A paper describing the results of CASCaDE 2 watershed hydrology and operations modeling was published in Water Resources Research (link). We also recently published a related report describing our methods and models in detail, and a data-and-code release that includes all of the code we developed for this project and the relevant data produced.
August 27, 2018: A report describing the meteorological and sea-level projections used in CASCaDE2 has been released as part of the Fourth California Climate Change Assessment (link).
July 1, 2018: Configuration files for the 2-D and 3-D versions of the D-Flow FM hydrodynamic model are available at d3d-baydelta.org. Instructions for obtaining the source code are also at that site.
October 1, 2017: A paper describing the application of the CASCaDE2 hydrodynamical model to the simulation of historical water temperatures has been published in Water Resources Research (link).
June 22, 2017: A report describing the seamless bathymetric/topographic DEM developed for the CASCaDE2 hydrodynamical model has been released (link).
June 5, 2017: A paper describing the new CASCaDE2 hydrodynamical model and its application to historical flows and salinity has been published in Estuarine, Coastal, and Shelf Science (link).
April 2017: A publication exploring responses of estuarine suspended sediment dynamics to scenarios of changing climate and alterations to engineered water conveyance structures (link to Achete et al. 2017 Climatic Change; https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-017-1954-8)
February 2017: A publication describing a laboratory analysis method enabling Selenium sample analysis supporting CASCaDE modeling work (link to Kleckner et al. 2017, L&O Methods; https://aslopubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/lom3.10164)
May 14, 2016: A paper describing the watershed sediment model developed for CASCaDE2 has been published in Water (link).
March 2016: A publication describing suspended sediment dynamics in a tidal channel network under peak river flow based on a 2D numerical model (link to Achete et al. 2016 Ocean Dynamics; https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10236-016-0944-0)
Older items
At the conclusion of external funding from the Delta Stewardship Council (DSC), we produced a summary report. Although the project term with DSC funding is over, work continues on CASCaDE2. Additional materials follow:
- Data
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
- Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Filter Total Items: 47The coming megafloods
Geologic evidence shows that truly massive floods, caused by rainfall alone, have occurred in California about every 200 years. The most recent was in 1861, and it bankrupted the state. Such floods were most likely caused by atmospheric rivers: narrow bands of water vapor about a mile above the ocean that extend for thousands of miles. Much smaller forms of these rivers regularly hit California, aAuthorsMichael D. Dettinger, B. Lynn IngramInfluence of estuarine processes on spatiotemporal variation in bioavailable selenium
Dynamic processes (physical, chemical and biological) challenge our ability to quantify and manage the ecological risk of chemical contaminants in estuarine environments. Selenium (Se) bioavailability (defined by bioaccumulation), stable isotopes and molar carbon-tonitrogen ratios in the benthic clam Potamocorbula amurensis, an important food source for predators, were determined monthly for 17 yrAuthorsA. Robin Stewart, Samuel N. Luoma, Kent A. Elrick, James L. Carter, Mick van der WegenA method for physically based model analysis of conjunctive use in response to potential climate changes
Potential climate change effects on aspects of conjunctive management of water resources can be evaluated by linking climate models with fully integrated groundwater-surface water models. The objective of this study is to develop a modeling system that links global climate models with regional hydrologic models, using the California Central Valley as a case study. The new method is a supply and deAuthorsR. T. Hanson, L. E. Flint, A. L. Flint, M. D. Dettinger, C.C. Faunt, D. Cayan, W. SchmidChanging restoration rules: exotic bivalves interact with residence time and depth to control phytoplankton productivity
Non-native species are a prevalent ecosystem stressor that can interact with other stressors to confound resource management and restoration. We examine how interactions between physical habitat attributes and a particular category of non-native species (invasive bivalves) influence primary production in aquatic ecosystems. Using mathematical models, we show how intuitive relationships between phyAuthorsLisa V. Lucas, Janet K. ThompsonSecond California Assessment: Integrated climate change impacts assessment of natural and managed systems. Guest editorial
Since 2006 the scientific community in California, in cooperation with resource managers, has been conducting periodic statewide studies about the potential impacts of climate change on natural and managed systems. This Special Issue is a compilation of revised papers that originate from the most recent assessment that concluded in 2009. As with the 2006 studies that influenced the passage of CaliAuthorsG. Franco, D.R. Cayan, S. Moser, M. Hanemann, M. A. JonesPotential increase in floods in California's Sierra Nevada under future climate projections
California’s mountainous topography, exposure to occasional heavily moisture-laden storm systems, and varied communities and infrastructures in low lying areas make it highly vulnerable to floods. An important question facing the state—in terms of protecting the public and formulating water management responses to climate change—is “how might future climate changes affect flood characteristics inAuthorsT. Das, M. D. Dettinger, D.R. Cayan, H.G. HidalgoClimate change, atmospheric rivers, and floods in California - a multimodel analysis of storm frequency and magnitude changes
Recent studies have documented the important role that “atmospheric rivers” (ARs) of concentrated near‐surface water vapor above the Pacific Ocean play in the storms and floods in California, Oregon, and Washington. By delivering large masses of warm, moist air (sometimes directly from the Tropics), ARs establish conditions for the kinds of high snowlines and copious orographic rainfall that haveAuthorsMichael D. DettingerDiscontinuous hindcast simulations of estuarine bathymetric change: A case study from Suisun Bay, California
Simulations of estuarine bathymetric change over decadal timescales require methods for idealization and reduction of forcing data and boundary conditions. Continuous simulations are hampered by computational and data limitations and results are rarely evaluated with observed bathymetric change data. Bathymetric change data for Suisun Bay, California span the 1867–1990 period with five bathymetricAuthorsNeil K. Ganju, Bruce E. Jaffe, David H. SchoellhamerProjected evolution of California's San Francisco bay-delta-river system in a century of climate change
Background: Accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growingAuthorsJames E. Cloern, Noah Knowles, Larry R. Brown, Daniel R. Cayan, Michael D. Dettinger, Tara L. Morgan, David H. Schoellhamer, Mark T. Stacey, Mick Van der Wegen, R.W. Wagner, Alan D. JassbyStatistical models of temperature in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta under climate-change scenarios and ecological implications
Changes in water temperatures caused by climate change in California's Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta will affect the ecosystem through physiological rates of fishes and invertebrates. This study presents statistical models that can be used to forecast water temperature within the Delta as a response to atmospheric conditions. The daily average model performed well (R2 values greater than 0.93 durinAuthorsR. Wayne Wagner, Mark T. Stacey, Larry R. Brown, Mike DettingerProcess-based, morphodynamic hindcast of decadal deposition patterns in San Pablo Bay, California, 1856-1887
This study investigates the possibility of hindcasting-observed decadal-scale morphologic change in San Pablo Bay, a subembayment of the San Francisco Estuary, California, USA, by means of a 3-D numerical model (Delft3D). The hindcast period, 1856-1887, is characterized by upstream hydraulic mining that resulted in a high sediment input to the estuary. The model includes wind waves, salt water andAuthorsM. van der Wegen, B. E. Jaffe, J.A. RoelvinkBed composition generation for morphodynamic modeling: Case study of San Pablo Bay in California, USA
Applications of process-based morphodynamic models are often constrained by limited availability of data on bed composition, which may have a considerable impact on the modeled morphodynamic development. One may even distinguish a period of “morphodynamic spin-up” in which the model generates the bed level according to some ill-defined initial bed composition rather than describing the realistic bAuthorsM. van der Wegen, A. Dastgheib, Bruce E. Jaffe, D. Roelvink