Earthquake Hazards Program

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Educational Publications

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Filter Total Items: 2,119
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Year Published: 2021

Spatial clustering of aftershocks impacts the performance of physics‐based earthquake forecasting models

I explore why physics‐based models of earthquake triggering rarely outperform statistical models in prospective testing, outside of limited spatial‐temporal windows. Pseudo‐prospective tests on suites of synthetic aftershock sequences show that a major factor is the level of unmodeled spatial clustering of the direct aftershocks triggered by the...

Hardebeck, Jeanne L.

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Year Published: 2021

A long-term geothermal observatory across subseafloor gas hydrates, IODP Hole U1364A, Cascadia accretionary prism

We report 4 years of temperature profiles collected from May 2014 to May 2018 in Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Hole U1364A in the frontal accretionary prism of the Cascadia subduction zone. The temperature data extend to depths of nearly 300 m below seafloor (mbsf), spanning the gas hydrate stability zone at the location and a clear...

Becker, K. Elizabeth; Davis, E. E.; Hessemann, M.; Collins, J. A.; McGuire, Jeffrey

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Year Published: 2021

The normal faulting 2020 Mw5.8 Lone Pine, Eastern California earthquake sequence

The 2020 Mw">Mw 5.8 Lone Pine earthquake, the largest earthquake on the Owens Valley fault zone, eastern California, since the nineteenth century, ruptured an extensional stepover in that fault. Owens Valley separates two normal‐faulting regimes, the western margin of the Great basin and the eastern margin of the Sierra Nevada,...

Hauksson, Egill; Olsen, Brian J.; Grant, Alex R. R. ; Andrews, Jennifer R; Chung, Angela I.; Hough, Susan E.; Kanamori, Hiroo; McBride, Sara; Michael, Andrew J.; Page, Morgan T.; Ross, Zachary E.; Smith, Deborah; Valkaniotis, Sotiris

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Year Published: 2021

Revisiting California’s past great earthquakes and long-term earthquake rate

In this study, we revisit the three largest historical earthquakes in California—the 1857 Fort Tejon, 1872 Owens Valley, and 1906 San Francisco earthquakes—to review their published moment magnitudes, and compare their estimated shaking distributions with predictions using modern ground‐motion models (GMMs) and ground‐motion intensity conversion...

Hough, Susan E.; Page, Morgan T.; Salditch, Leah; Gallahue, Molly M.; Lucas, Madeleine C.; Neely, James S.; Stein, Seth

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Year Published: 2021

The Alaska convergent margin backstop splay fault zone, a potential large tsunami generator between the frontal prism and continental framework

The giant tsunami that swept the Pacific from Alaska to Antarctica in 1946 was generated along one of three Alaska Trench instrumentally recorded aftershock areas following great and giant earthquakes. Aftershock areas were investigated during the past decade with multibeam bathymetry, ocean bottom seismograph wide‐angle seismic, reprocessed...

von Huene, Roland; Miller, John J.; Krabbenhoeft, Anne

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Year Published: 2021

Characterizing strain between rigid crustal blocks in the southern Cascadia forearc: Quaternary faults and folds of the northern Sacramento Valley, California

Topographic profiles across late Quaternary surfaces in the northern Sacramento Valley (California, USA) show offset and progressive folding on series of active east- and northeast—trending faults and folds. Optically stimulated luminescence ages on deposits draping a warped late Pleistocene river terrace yielded differential incision rates along...

Angster, Stephen J.; Wesnousky, Steven G.; Figueiredo, Paula; Owen, Lewis A.; Sawyer, Thomas

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Year Published: 2021

The induced Mw 5.0 March 2020 west Texas seismic sequence

On March 26, 2020, a M 5.0 earthquake occurred in the Delaware Basin, Texas, near the border between Reeves and Culberson Counties. This was the third largest earthquake recorded in Texas and the largest earthquake in the Central and Eastern United States since the three M 5.0–5.8 induced events in Oklahoma during 2016. Using...

Skoumal, Robert; Kaven, Joern; Barbour, Andrew; Wicks, Charles; Brudzinski, Michael R.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Rubinstein, Justin

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Year Published: 2021

Spectral inversion for seismic site response in central Oklahoma: Low-frequency resonances from the Great Unconformity

We investigate seismic site response by inverting seismic ground‐motion spectra for site and source spectral properties, in a region of central Oklahoma, where previous ground‐motion studies have indicated discrepancies between observations and ground‐motion models (GMMs). The inversion is constrained by a source spectral model, which we computed...

Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hartzell, Stephen H.

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Year Published: 2021

A generic soil velocity model that accounts for near-surface conditions and deeper geologic structure

Near-surface soil conditions can significantly alter the amplitude and frequency content of incoming ground motions – often with profound consequences for the built environment – and are thus important inputs to any ground-motion prediction. Previous soil-velocity models (SVM) have predicted shear-wave velocity profiles based on the time-averaged...

Marafi, Nasser A.; Grant, Alex R. R. ; Maurer, Brett W.; Rateria, Gunjan; Eberhard, Marc O; Berman, Jeff W

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Year Published: 2021

Evaluation of seismic hazard models with fragile geologic features

We provide an overview of a 2019 workshop on the use of fragile geologic features (FGFs) to evaluate seismic hazard models. FGFs have been scarcely utilized in the evaluation of seismic hazard models, despite nearly 30 yr having passed since the first recognition of their potential value. Recently, several studies have begun to focus on the...

Stirling, Mark W.; Oskin, Mike; Arrowsmith, J. Ramon; Rood, Anna H.; Goulet, Christine A.; Grant Ludwig, Lisa; King, Tamarah; Kottke, Albert; Lozos, Julian C.; Madugo, Chris L M; McPhillips, Devin; Rood, Dylan; Sleep, Norman; Wittich, Christine

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Year Published: 2021

Tall building performance-based seismic design using SCEC broadband platform site-specific ground motion simulations

The scarcity of strong ground motion records presents a challenge for making reliable performance assessments of tall buildings whose seismic design is controlled by large-magnitude and close-distance earthquakes. This challenge can be addressed using broadband ground-motion simulation methods to generate records with site-specific characteristics...

Zhong, Kuanshi; Lin, Ting; Deierlein, Greg; Graves, Robert; Silva, Fabio; Luco, Nicolas

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Year Published: 2021

VS30 and Dominant Site Frequency (⁠fd⁠) as Provisional Station ML Corrections (⁠dML⁠) in California

New seismic stations added to a regional seismic network cannot be used to calculate local magnitude (⁠ML">ML⁠) until a revised regionwide amplitude decay function is developed. Each station must record a minimum number of local and regional earthquakes that meet specific amplitude requirements prior to recalibration of the amplitude decay...

Yong, Alan; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Andrews, Jennifer; Hudson, Kenneth; Antony Martin; Yu, Ellen; Herrick, Julie A; Dozal, Jessica