The onset of spring, represented by first leaf and first bloom, is a critical indicator of the health and growth of ecosystems. Studies have shown that the timing of first leaf and first bloom has shifted to earlier in the year across the U.S., impacting species that time their own life history events based on spring onset. False springs occur when temperatures briefly warm and “trick” plants into opening their buds, only to be followed by a hard freeze that can kill the young, sensitive buds. These events can cause significant damage to ecosystems as well as agriculture. For example, a false spring in the Southeast in 2007 caused $2 billion in damage to crops. Some projections of future climate conditions have shown that the occurrence of false springs will increase in the future, while others have shown that they will decrease.
To date, the studies that have examined changes in spring onset and false springs have used climate projections that were not designed for use in the South Central region. The goal of this project is to improve our understanding of future changes in the timing of spring onset and the frequency and occurrence of false springs in the South Central U.S. Researchers will use projections of future climate conditions that were designed specifically for use in this region. The results of this project will provide the region’s natural resource managers with information on projected future changes to these ecologically-relevant indices, and will provide guidance on best practices for using climate projections to model changes in spring onset and false springs. Together, this information will inform ecosystem management and adaptation planning throughout the South Central region.
